美国历史学家预言：乌克兰战争让“中俄终于走到了一起”，新的世界秩序或将诞生

视频上传日期：2022年3月21日，174万次播放，评论数9000+，1.8万点赞
嘉宾：美国历史学家阿尔弗雷德·麦考伊（Alfed McCoy），77岁，耶鲁大学哲学博士，威斯康星大学历史学教授
观点梗概：
=中俄领导人表现出一种超凡的信心，即历史和地缘政治走势在中俄一边，美国对乌武器援助和对俄金融施压都改变不了这一点
=近500年的历史反复证明：得亚欧大陆者得天下。中俄将渐次打破美国对亚欧大陆的支配，从而打破美国长达70年的全球霸权，由此以新的全球权力中心的身份见证新世界秩序的诞生
=中俄采用的是“push-push-punch”的地缘政治战略：先在亚欧大陆东西两端不断猛推(push)美国施加在亚欧大陆上的地缘政治控制链条，然后展开猛击（punch）致使链条断裂
=两大工具：人民币结算+一带一路
=美国降中国升，乃至权力由西方向亚洲转移的趋势将在2030年明朗化

A P
In 1991 when the US was seeking to invade Iraq, Yemen voted against it. Look at the destruction flowing across Yemen as a result. A Member of the US delegation told the Yemen's ambassador, "That's the most expensive vote you ever cast". Source: Caitlin Johnstone "International law is a meaningless concept when it only applies to US enemies".

1991年，当美国企图入侵伊拉克时，也门投了反对票。去看看也门因此蒙受的破坏吧。美国代表团的一名成员曾对也门大使说：“这是你们投出的代价最昂贵的一票”。
资料来源：凯特琳·约翰斯通的“当国际法只适用于美国的敌人时，它便成了一个毫无意义的概念”。

MeB 777
"Every dog has its day"
The US has been spending too much money, and time in the Middle East. It should have been building up its infrastructure, industry and providing relief for its citizens.
I have watched the US invest more in Israel, China and India than it's own people and country.

“每条狗都有它的高光时刻。”
一直以来，美国在中东耗费了了过多的金钱和时间。美国本该去打造其基础设施、工业以及为国民提供救济。
我所见证的是，美国对以色列、中国和印度的投资，超过了对本国和本国人民的投资。

Be Nice
"How can you have a war on terrorism when war itself is terrorism?" — Howard Zinn

“当战争本身就是在搞恐怖主义，你又怎么能对恐怖主义开战呢？”—— 霍华德·津恩

CrouchingWombatHiddenQuoll
Do these American people simply forget the brutality they have and still are inflicting on other countries? It's quite bizarre

这些美国人难道就这么忘了他们曾经（至今还是如此）强加给其他国家的暴行？这也太奇怪了

DragonSlayer
The factions of the US govt portray themselves as being the greatest nation in the world, yet invests more in foreign countries than its own citizens, has so many problems internally, hungry/ homeless issues, & racial issues on several levels.

美国政府中的各大派系都会把本国说成是全世界最伟大的国家，但对外国的投资却比对本国公民的投资还要多，国内的问题那叫一个多，饥饿/无家可归的问题，还有遍布很多个层面的种族问题。

Víctor Silva
“A world order far less concern with human rights and more transactional”
I don’t think you can get less concern and more transactional than aiding and supporting a genocide in Yemen in exchange for oil

“一个基本上不关心人权而更注重交易性的世界秩序”
我不觉得你能比“为换取石油，援助和支持也门的种族灭绝”更不关心人权乃至更富交易性了。

Wuhao Ouyang
A scholar from the US worrying about its power fading in Eurasia which is thousands miles away is the most American thing I can think of.

一个来自美国的学者担心自己的统治力会在几千英里之外的欧亚大陆上消退，这是我能想到的最有美国味的事情了。

Y T
I don't think the Chinese ambassador said China would "support" Russia, I think what the ambassador said was China is in a good place to support the "international effort" for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine

我不记得中国大使说过，中国会“支持”俄罗斯，我记得那位大使说的是，中国处在为达成俄乌和谈而付出“国际努力”的有利地位。

Gametime_123
Me 2019: I never could understand how we can be in the state of affairs we are in. Don't we have scholars and people of integrity leading our country.
Me:2022. OMG were all doomed. I've seriously over estimated the intellect of a majority of my fellow man.

2019年的我：我一直都无法理解我们怎么就会陷入现在的事态。我们不是有学者和正直的人在领导我们的国家吗。
2022年的我：天呐，我们真是劫数难逃啊。我严重高估了大多数同胞的脑力。

Tarwin Grill
For Pakistan and India to be on the same side on an issue, is a huge proof that that side is 100% right.

连巴基斯坦和印度都在这个议题上选了同一边，这便是铁证了，证明这一边是百分之百正确的。

Asando Pottale
This was an interesting, thought-provoking interview. Not that I would agree to all of it (at the moment), but it is good to challenge one's own worldview against it.

这是一次有趣的、发人深省的访谈。并不是说我同意其中所有的内容（目前），但挑战自己的世界观是有好处的。

Ollie Gark
US always with threats; "Do what we want or else" and everybody"s sick of it

美国总是在祭出威胁，“我们怎么想的你就怎么做，否则…”，所有人都厌恶它。

Mario Quade
2:00 What strong support? Did I miss something about China suddenly sending troops, military technology, vehicles or other aide that could be used for the military to Russia? So far I was under the impression that Chinese support for the war was expressed by not condeming it, which I wouldn't categorise as "strong support" but what do I know.

2:00处，什么叫强有力的支持？我是错过了什么吗，难道中国突然向俄罗斯派遣了军队，送出了军事技术、车辆或其他可用于军事行动的援助？到目前为止，我的印象是中国对这场战争的支持是通过不作谴责来表达的，我不会把它归为“强有力的支持”，但我这种人又能知道些什么呢。

Jerad `Blazek
If the US wants China to stay out of it, then the US should stay out as well.
Anytime you support directly or indirectly, you continue to escalate not deescalate.

如果美国希望中国置身事外，那么美国也应该置身事外。
任何时候，只要你直接或间接地支持，你就会在力度上继续升级而不是降级。

K Sheshadri
Nice interview, although the main conclusion of professor Mccoy, "America descends, China ascends" is not necessarily more likely than the alternative "uni-polar world descends, multi-polar world ascends".

不错的访谈，尽管麦考伊教授的主要结论，“美国下降，中国上升”的可能性，不一定比另一种情况更高，即“单极世界下降，多极世界上升”。

Anon Anon
I remember when the Soviet unx collapsed how optimistic we were for the future in the United States. There wasn’t the constant thought of mutually assured destruction possibly occurring at any time. People were joyous that free society triumphed over repressive society. Then over the course of the next 30 years, our government engaged in frequent wars of regime change and resource acquisition overseas, and increasingly hostile towards civil liberties and free expression at home. To say it’s disappointing is an understatement.

我记得苏联解体的时候，我们对美国的未来是多么乐观啊。什么随时可能发生互相确保摧毁，当时并不存在这样的想法。人们为自由社会的胜利而欢欣鼓舞。然后，在接下来的三十年里，我们的政府在海外频繁参加旨在政权更迭和攫取资源的战争，在国内，对公民自由和自由表达的敌意也越来越强。说它令人失望都属于是轻描淡写了。

Di Horse
Have anyone heard a simple word from US on promoting the “peace negotiation”?

有谁听到过美国为推动“和平谈判”而说过什么话吗？哪怕一句？

Ride With Shawn
Professor McCoy shares his ideas on what is going on in regards to Ukraine (geopolitically speaking) and covers the topic of transitional power from the current hegemon towards a new system brought on by the alliance of China & Russia very well. However at the end in his last statement, he falls directly into the trap of western logic that Alexander Dugin speaks of. As a westerner, Professor McMoy is making the assumption that this is about one great power losing hegemony to another rising power seeking global dominance. He's failing to see the structures alongside of the China/Russia aliance that is moving in tandom. This includes the countries of Iran/Syria, India, Pakistan, & Brazil, (as well as collection of countries within the African continent) that are all making regional independent (from the US) decisions. All this together points to a global spanning change towards not a new hegemon, but rather several poles of influence and power as a multipolar organization that has often been spoken about by Russia's president Putin. Spoken at least as early as 10 February 2007 at the Munich Security Conference when Putin spoke directly and specifically about the dangers of the unipolar world order as seen from Russia's perspective.
Perhaps, this is that very real shift, the first obvious steps at least.

麦考伊教授分享了他对乌克兰问题的看法（是从地缘政治的角度说的），也论及了权力从目前的一霸向中俄联盟引致的新体系转移的话题，可谓精辟。然而，在他最后的陈述中，他直接掉进了亚历山大·杜金口中的西方逻辑的陷阱。作为一个西方人，麦考伊教授作出的假设是：重点在于一个大国失去了霸权，而另一个崛起的大国在追求全球统治力。他没能看到和中俄联盟并行且与之形成联动的那套架构。这其中包括伊朗/叙利亚、印度、巴基斯坦和巴西等国（以及非洲大陆上的一些国家），这些国家正在作出让其所在地区独立于美国的抉择。所有这些都指向一种在全球范围内发生的变化，而变化方向并不是形成一个新的霸主，而是朝着俄罗斯总统普京经常谈及的“以多极组织形式存在的坐拥影响力和强权的几极”演进。早在2007年2月10日的慕尼黑安全会议上，普京就直接且专门谈到了俄罗斯眼中单极世界秩序的危险。
也许，这就是他所言的那种非常真实的转变，至少也踏出了显而易见的最初几步。
（译注：亚历山大·杜金，俄哲学家/政治理论家，统一俄罗斯党高阶顾问，以提出“第四政治理论”和“多级世界”闻名）

Brenda Lewis
China doesn't need the U S telling them what to do. US trying to tell nations what to do sicking indeed

中国不需要美国告诉他们该怎么做。美国试图告诉各国该怎么做，这真的很让人恶心。

isoboy2125
You know the speaker's a true American when he speaks about increased global trade not in terms of shared prosperity, but in terms of losing global power.

当发言者不是从共同繁荣的角度，而是从失去全球支配权的角度来谈论增加全球贸易时，你就知道他是一个真正的美国人了。

buixote
In this segment, McCoy expressed concerns about Human Rights being degraded in a "China Ascendant World". I guess he forgot about Guantanamo, Torture, Rendition, Assange, etc. Let's take off our rose-colored glasses when it comes to respect for human rights in "The West",
and the US.

在这段话中，麦考伊表达了对在“中国崛起的世界”中人权状况恶化的担忧。我猜他忘记了关塔那摩、酷刑、引渡、阿桑奇等等。谈到“西方”还有美国对人权的尊重时，让我们撤掉玫瑰色的滤镜吧。

Lion Victor99
Thank you, Professor McCoy for a comprehensive analysis. Qualified and Intelligent people are always neutral and honest.
Why is Russia and China coming together a threat? Is it not a good development for the peace and security of the humanity? Not only Russia and China there is a large majority of countries who are with Russo-China group. They include almost countries of Asia, Africa, Latin America and several countries from Europe, even some from Western Europe.

感谢麦考伊教授非常全面的分析。合格且聪慧的人总是能恪守中立并讲出真话。
为什么俄罗斯和中国走到一起就成了一种威胁？难道这对人类的和平与安全不是一个积极的进展吗？不仅是俄罗斯和中国，大多数国家都是和俄中集团站在一起的。其中包括几乎所有的亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲国家，和欧洲的几个国家，甚至还有一些西欧国家。

Paul Wheeler
And America's own unprincipled domestic governance over the past 50 years, and particularly over the past 20, has weakened us as a nation and world power. That weakening has allowed Russia and China to move forward with their allied interests and domination. Economy does not make you strong. Only a just and principled base can do that. We, as a nation, have abandoned those principles for profit.

在过去的五十年里，特别是在过去的二十年里，美国不讲原则的国内治理削弱了我们作为一个国家和世界大国的地位。这种削弱已经让俄罗斯和中国得以推进同其盟友的利益和统治。让你强大的不是经济。只有一个讲公义且讲原则的基础才能做到这一点。而我们这个国家，已经为了获利放弃了这些原则。

Stephen Lock
The arrogance and hubris of the US regime is just unlimited. Who the hell is the US regime to tell China or anyone else for that matter what it can and cannot do. This absurd assertion of the nonsensical American Exceptionalism, that the US regime can supply arms and all kinds of support to Ukrainian regime but China cannot help its friend, Russia is ludicrous.

美国政权的傲慢和狂妄简直是没有上限。美国政权算哪根葱呢，敢要求中国或其他任何国家能做什么，不能做什么。美国政权可以向乌克兰政权提供武器和各种支持，中国却不能帮助她的朋友俄罗斯，这不可笑吗，这是愚蠢的美国例外主义搞出来的荒谬主张。

Number Six
This isn't about military force. It's about economic independence.

关键不在于军事力量，而在于经济独立。

Arvind Talukdar
1. China doesn’t want to disrupt its own business without knowing how peace talks are going.
2. Would nato and Ukraine be comfortable with china being privy to the peace talks?
3. Should all countries that trade with Russia stop trading or should it happen differently?

1）中国不希望在和平谈判进展情况不明朗的情况下搞砸自己的生意。
2）如果中国暗中参与和平谈判，北约和乌克兰心里会舒服吗？
3）所有和俄罗斯有贸易往来的国家都应该停止贸易，还是应该选择不同的方式？

Eb
Finally, a person who sees the bigger implications of this and through the endless attempts to make sure we don't hurt Putin's feelings

终于有一个人看到了该事件带来的更深远影响，还通过不断尝试来确保我们不伤害普京的感情

TKK
Interview keeps talking about china’s ‘boldness’. Boldness is when you don’t succumb to US threats

访谈中一直在谈论中国的“胆魄”。所谓胆魄就是你不屈服于美国的威胁。

alrac6803
Listening to the professor and reporter, with their "US number 1" mindset, is like the old saying that "when all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail".

听了这教授和记者的话，他们还是抱着“美国第一”的心态，就像那句老话说的，“当你只有一把锤子时，每个问题看起来都像钉子”。