越南能超越中国，成为下一个世界工厂吗？

Rui Zhang

Historian living in Tokyo Author has 769 answers and 6.1M answer viewsJun 4

Vietnam will replace China as a world factory, Vietnam will become high -income developed countries, and Vietnam will surpass China. Every time, there will always be some public oion on the Internet that will always make up the public oion that Vietnam is more than China. These theories always like to compare Vietnam to a humble student in the class. Last year, Vietnam was difficult to resist the impact of Delta and chose to coest with the vir s. Sure enough, the closest to the recent Internet has begun to make up.

On my country's network, how the Vietnam economy has always been a hot topic. What people do most often are discussing whether the Vietnamese economy will catch up with China, and even Vietnam will become a new world factory to replace China.

越南会取代中国成为世界工厂，越南会成为高收入发达国家，越南会超过中国。网上总会出现这种舆论，让人觉得越南比中国更强大。这些说法总是喜欢把越南比作一个谦逊的学生。去年，越南难以抵挡德尔塔病毒的冲击，选择与病毒共存。果不其然，最近这种论调又开始在网上刷存在感了。

在我们国家的新闻网络上，越南经济会如何发展，一直是个热门话题。人们最常做的是讨论越南经济会不会赶上中国，甚至越南能不能取代中国成为新的世界工厂。

The reason why Vietnam is so attractive is that Vietnam has developed rapidly in recent years and has maintained a stable growth rate. Although it has been hit by the new crown epidemic in recent years, it has recovered quickly. The GDP in the first quarter of this year has increased by 5.03 year -on -year %, It is expected that the economic growth rate will reach 6.5%this year.

Vietnam has a population of nearly 100 million, the population structure is very young, with a long coastline of thousands of kilometers, a stable domestic order, and a very proper internal and external policy. And external environment. So we see that more and more multinational companies have moved factories to Vietnam, using Vietnam's cher labor and convenient sea and land transportation, coupled with excellent tax policies to play the important world in the global industrial chain Factory role. There is no doubt that today's Vietnam is a superior student in the world's economies. It is manifested in Southeast Asia, and it is very outstanding in the world.

越南之所以如此吸引人，是因为越南近年来发展迅速，一直保持着稳定的增长速度。尽管也受到了新冠疫情的冲击，但恢复得很快。今年第一季度，越南国内生产总值同比增长5.03%，预计今年经济增速将达到6.5%。

越南有近1亿人口，人口结构非常年轻，有绵延数千公里的海岸线，国内秩序稳定，内外政策非常得当。所以我们看到越来越多的跨国公司把工厂搬到越南，利用越南廉价的劳动力和便捷的海陆空交通，以及优良的税收政策，越南在全球产业链中扮演起重要的世界工厂角色。毫无疑问，今天的越南是世界经济的优等生。它在东南亚的表现很亮眼，在全球范围内也很突出。

Having said that, many people may say that Vietnam is now using its ch labor. Vietnam does not have a complete industrial sy em. It is impossible to establish its own industrial facilities. It is destined to be unable to rise in the role, and it is impossible to re -reproduce the success of the Chinese economy. The first half of this view is okay. Vietnam does not have a complete industrial sy em like China, and it is indeed using its ch labor. However, it is said that Vietnam cannot establish its own industrial facilities and cannot copy the success of China's economy. I am afraid that this conclusion is too early.

话虽如此，很多人可能会说，越南现在利用的是廉价的劳动力。越南没有完整的工业体系，不能打造自己的工业设施，注定无法崛起为世界工厂，也不可能复制中国经济的成功模式。这个观点的前半部分没有问题。越南不像中国那样拥有完整的工业体系，也确实在利用廉价劳动力。但说越南无法建立自己的工业设施，也无法复制中国经济的成功，这个结论恐怕为时尚早。

First of all, we look at industrial support. China also started from labor -intensive ch assembly factories. It did not have the current comprehensive supporting industrial sy em. This is a process of continuous development. Around the assembly factory, it has gradually spawned the surrounding supporting factories, which is an inevitable result of industrial development. Of course, Vietnam's level of industrialization is very low, and it has innate deficiency in the development of many supporting industries. In addition, Vietnam is close to China. Many component supporting industries can rely on China's Pearl River Delta region, which also objectively hinders the localization of supporting industries.

首先，我们看看产业支持。中国也是从劳动密集型的廉价装配工厂起步。一开始也不具备现在的综合配套产业体系。这是一个不断发展的过程。总装厂的周围会逐渐催生周边配套工厂，这是工业发展的必然结果。当然，越南的工业化水平很低，很多配套产业的发展先天不足。此外，越南与中国关系密切。很多零部件配套产业可以依赖中国珠三角地区，客观上也阻碍了配套产业的本土化。

However, the development of the global industrial chain has to be affected by the international po itical situation in addition to complying with market laws. The comprehensive sup ession of the United States and the West to the Chinese economy has provided opportunities to the development of the Chinese technology industry objectively for the development of the relevant industrial chain of Vietnam. The important content of the decoustal strategy of the United States to China is to prome multinational companies to move the production line from China, and it is precisely the first choice for many multinational companies. In the United States, there are restrictions on the proportion of parts and components from China. The means of taxation and legal restrictions have forced multinational companies to reduce their procurement in China, and objectively prome the development of Vietnamese supporting industries with po itical intervention. This is a very rare opportunity for the development of the Vietnamese industry, so we cannot use the market logic of the past to take the conclusion that Vietnam cannot develop supporting industries.

但是，全球产业链的发展除了遵循市场规律外，还必然受到国际政治形势的影响。美国和西方对中国经济的全面打压，客观上为越南相关产业链的发展，为中国科技产业的发展提供了机遇。

美国对华脱钩战略的重要内容是鼓励跨国公司将生产线从中国搬离，而这恰恰是许多跨国公司的首选。

美国对来自中国的零部件比例有限制。税收和法律的限制手段迫使跨国公司减少在中国的采购，而政治干预客观上促进了越南配套产业的发展。

这对越南工业发展来说是一个千载难逢的机会，不能仅凭过去的市场逻辑就推断越南无法发展配套产业的结论。

In other words, the United States and the West are using po itical forces to help Vietnam engage in supporting industries. Of course, due to the many limitations of Vietnam's industrialization level and education and technology level, due to the restrictions on the scale and market size of Vietnam, Vietnam cannot establish an independent industrial chain in all walks of life in all walks of life. Some areas have established an industrial chain that can compete with China, such as in certain areas of the ronics industry, some civilian ronic products, and in some light industries such as clothing, shoes and hats, may establish an industrial chain that comes with China. Some low -end fields may even replace China's international status.

换句话说，美国和西方正在利用政治力量帮助越南发展支持性产业。当然，由于越南工业化水平和教育技术水平的诸多限制，以及越南的国家规模和市场体量的限制，越南无法在所有行业都打造独立产业链。在某些领域，越南已经打造了可以与中国竞争的产业链，比如电子产业的某些领域，某些民用电子产品，而在服装鞋帽等一些轻工业，越南可能会打造出不输中国的产业链。在某些低端领域甚至有可能取代中国的国际地位。

Can Vietnam surpass China? If you say more than China exceed China, it is of course impossible. The economic achievements and international status achieved by China today, let alone Vietnam, can only be compared in the world in the world. The two countries are not in one level, not a type of country. They play completely different roles in international po itical and economic. This is meaningless. However, in terms of development, can it catch or surpass China in terms of development?

We might as well be geographical. Vietnam is located on the south side of the China Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. On transportation, and even geographical culture, it is similar to China. It also belongs to the Confucian cultural circle. , China and Vietnam have very similar characteristics. The biggest difference is that in the scale of the country, Vietnam is probably comparable to a large population province in China.

越南能超越中国吗？如果你说的是国力强过中国，那当然是不可能的。中国今天取得的经济成就和国际地位，不要说越南了，只有世界一流国家才能与之相比。这两个国家压根不在一个层面，也不是同一个类型。两国在国际政治和经济中扮演着完全不同的角色。这么说是毫无意义的。但是，在经济发展方面，越南能赶上或超过中国吗？

我们不妨从地理上分析一下。越南位于中国珠江三角洲经济区的南侧。在交通上，甚至地理文化上，都与中国相似。越南也位于儒家文化圈。中国和越南有很多相似之处。最大的不同在于国家规模，越南可能只相当于中国的一个人口大省。

At present, Vietnam's outward economy is closely integrated with the Chinese economy. There is a huge trade deficit between Vietnam and China. It has gradually become an extension of the China Pearl River Delta Economic Zone and a part of China's industrial chain. Especially with the development of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area, the landing of RCEP, the continuous expansion of China's consumer market, and the conditions of further economic integration in Vietnam and China's economy are becoming more and more mature. With its geographical advantages, Vietnam is a very realistic result to catch up with China's coastal developed provinces in economic development. It is by no means a day and night. Therefore, as long as the Vietnamese economy is facing the road, it will continue to maintain a close cooperative relationship with China, further breaking the economic barriers between the country, and can fully reach the development level or even exceed the average level of China.

目前，越南对外经济与中国经济紧密结合。越南和中国之间存在巨大的贸易逆差。越南已逐渐成为中国珠三角经济区的延伸和中国产业链的一部分。特别是随着中国-东盟自贸区的发展，区域全面经济伙伴关系协定的落地，中国消费市场的不断扩大，中越经济进一步融合的条件越来越成熟。越南凭借其地理优势，在经济发展方面赶超中国沿海发达省份是一个非常现实的结果。这绝非一朝一夕的事。因此，只要越南经济正视这条道路，越南就将继续与中国保持密切的合作关系，进一步打破国家之间的经济壁垒，完全能够达到甚至超过中国的平均水平。

In addition, it is particularly worth mentioning that Vietnam's national policies have always adhered to economic construction as the center, do not engage in those grand narratives, and seek economic benefits with all their minds, which is very consistent with the international identity of its small country. In many sensitive international issues, Vietnam has always maintained neutrality and refused to choose the side team, which fully shows the oriental wisdom in diplomacy. If you have been to Vietnam, you will find that the entire Vietnam economy is very dynamic. Vietnam has fully stimulated and mobilized the subjective initiative of the people to act on the economy and develops the economy in terms of policies and laws. Free business and has a good business environment. These all help Vietnam's market economy can maintain stable and healthy development.

此外，特别值得一提的是，越南的国家政策一直坚持以经济建设为中心，不搞假大空的那套，一心一意追求经济利益。在许多敏感的国际问题上，越南始终保持中立，拒绝选队站队，充分体现了东方的外交智慧。如果你去过越南，你会发现整个越南的经济非常有活力。越南充分激发和调动了越南人对经济的主观能动性，从政策和法律上发展经济，越南人自由营商，有着良好的营商环境。这些都有助于越南市场经济保持稳定健康的发展。

The long -term war has made Vietnam's level of industrialization very low, and the foundation is very thin. It can achieve today's development achievements, indicating that the Vietnamese people have great wisdom and hard -working national spirit. At the same time, Vietnam has its own advantages as a small country, that is, to avoid disputes on the game of the big country. Under the current and future complex and changeable international situation, it has an external environment that is more conducive to economic development. Objects benefit from multiple parties.

We discuss whether the Vietnamese economy can surpass China that it does not have much value. As a neighbor state that cannot be moved away, China and Vietnam are partners who are complementary in national scale and industrial division of labor. In terms of economic and trade relations, we can continuously deepen cooperation, and both countries can benefit from the development of each other and obtain the effect of OnePlus one greater than two, rather than entangled in meaningless comparisons.

长期的战争使越南的工业化水平很低，基础很薄弱。它能取得今天的发展成就，说明越南人民具有伟大的智慧和勤劳的民族精神。同时，越南作为一个小国也有自己的优势，那就是能规避大国博弈上的争端。在当前和未来复杂多变的国际形势下，越南拥有更有利于经济发展的外部环境，可以多方获益。

我们在这讨论越南经济能否超过中国，其实并没有多少价值。中越是搬不走的邻邦，是国家规模和产业分工互补的伙伴。在经贸关系上，两国可以不断深化合作，从彼此的发展中受益，实现一加一大于二的效果，不要纠缠在毫无意义的比较中。

Michael Ciao

Business Owner Investor (1977–present)Author has 9.2K answers and 10.1M answer views11mo

No, Vietnam is too small.

Vietnam can be and should be successful and prosperous, a prosperous Vietnam is good for the world. They should not be wasting energy trying to compete with China.

Congratulation on the completion of Hanoi Metro line built by China. I am truly sorry to hear the Ho Chi Ming city Metro building by the Japanese at triple cost is delayed and over budget again.

不可能，越南太小了。

越南有能力，而且应该获得成功和繁荣，一个繁荣的越南对世界是有好处的。他们不应该浪费精力跟中国较劲。

祝贺中国承建的河内地铁顺利建成。听说日本人以三倍的成本建造的胡志明市地铁不但再次延期，而且预算又超了，我真的很遗憾。

China - World Leader.

Answered by

Jimmy Qu 

Author has 919 answers and 1.8M answer viewsNov 10, 2021

From a Chinese perspective, I think Vietnam will definitely share a lot of manufacturing orders with China, more and more factories will move out of China to Vietnam. It will take some time.

But to become the next factory in the world there are some sincere things Vietnam public need to know about:

从中国人的角度来看，我认为越南肯定会分流中国很多制造订单，越来越多的工厂将从中国转移到越南。这需要一些时间。

但要成为下一个世界工厂，越南民众需要了解一些真心的提醒：

1: there is very little chance to have no negative impact to environment. Mass Manufacturing inevitably ruins the environment. If you wish to do the work, you need to be cher. When you do it cher, you cannot control waste gas and water from manufacturing until you increase price and treat it properly. Because there is simply no budget and no shortcut. For China to make $5 jeans, many villagers suffered from diseases from manufacturing and water didn’t get treated properly and pouring into river. That’s the price need to pay. Once China have more restricted environment policies, those factories will shut down. Vietnam will have to prevent dge to Vietnam water and environment by introducing policies and have someone constantly testing water quality.

1: 对环境几乎肯定会有负面影响。大规模生产不可避免会破坏环境。如果你想拿下订单，价格就得便宜一点。但你因此降低成本时，就无法控制生产过程中的废气废水排放，除非你提高价格并妥善处理污染问题。

这种事没有预算，也没有捷径。当初为了生产5美元的牛仔裤，害得许多村民在生产过程中患上了疾病，废水没有得到妥善处理就排入河流。

这就是发展工业需要付出的代价。只要中国出台更严格的环保政策，这些工厂就会被关闭。

越南必须通过出台政策来防止工业生产对越南的水源和环境的破坏，并让人长期监测水质。

2: skilled worker.

To be able to put iPhone together, skilled workers are required. Therefore higher education is required even for workers on assembly line. But the challenge is, if workers have higher education, are they still willing to do these repetitive and low pay, but high quality and standards, long hours work for long time? Or it’s better for them to open a shop and repair phones with more return?

2: 熟练技工。

想要组装iPhone，就需要熟练技工。因此，就算是流水线工人也得受过高等教育。但问题在于，如果工人接受过高等教育，还会愿意长期做这些低收入、高要求的重复性工作吗？他们开个店，修手机，收入不是更高吗？

3: infrastructure and logistics

In China, it only takes a few days (3–5 days typically) from manufacturing area to the sea port ready for ship. I heard that some area in Vietnam does not seems to have good network and take a bit longer for ship (source saying 7–15 days or more). Vietnam go nment need to spend a bit more money to build better road/railway network and other infrastructure to bring up efficiency of logistics. Longer waiting for orders are bad for business, sometimes you need to hit the market with your products before competitors and it matters even just 1 or 2 days in advance. Some customers will be willing to pay more if the products they ordered can arrive sooner.

3: 基础设施和物流

在中国，从生产地到随时可以装运的海港只需要几天时间，通常3-5天。我听说越南的一些地区交通网还不是很好，需要更长的运输时间(消息人士说7-15天或更久)。

越南政府需要花更多的钱来建设更好的公路、铁路网和其他基础设施，才能提高物流效率。

订单的等待时间过长对生意不利，有时你需要在竞争对手之前将产品投放市场，提前1到2天也都事关紧要。如果订购的产品能早点到货，有些顾客会愿意支付更多的钱。

4: Ability to expand manufacturing ability for more variety of materials.

To be the factory of the world, either you have ordered a lot of things you cannot manufactured in advance, or you need to make them by yourself. Things like screws, wires, clips, cases, cast iron and models, things like that. More factory, more preparation, and inevitably, more chance to harm the environment. If Vietnam has a strategy to overcome these problems and make manufacturing process smooth like a drive-in McDonald, then the result will be guaranteed to be on time.

Certainly I am not an expert but these factors are worthy to be thinking of if Vietnam is planning to go bigger in manufacturing goods for the world.

4: 扩大生产的能力，生产更多种材料的能力。

想要成为世界工厂，要么你订购了很多无法提前制造的东西，要么你需要自己制造，比如螺丝、电线、夹子、箱子、铸铁和模型，诸如此类的东西。更多的工厂，更多的准备，不可避免地更可能伤害环境。如果越南有办法克服这些问题，让生产过程像麦当劳得来速餐厅一样丝滑顺畅，那么就能保证准时生产。

当然了，我不是专家，但如果越南有志壮大为世界制造商品的实力，这些因素都是值得考虑的。

Richy T

Author has 345 answers and 40.2K answer views11mo

Does it matter to become economically strong or anything in 10 years and then destroy all in 20 years?

10年内经济变强大，但20年内就毁于一旦，有意义吗？

Martin Vratny

Certified GeekAuthor has 2.9K answers and 9.8M answer viewsUpdated 2y

Related

Which country will be the next world's factory when China can't be anymore?

Not a country.

An entire continent.

China has already started moving some of their production into Africa. As they move away from the low-end of production, they need to build up infrastructure in other countries. They pour unbelievable amounts of resources into many African nations through the Belt and Road Initiative.

African nations have quite good relationships with China. Even historically. They strongly supported their independence movements, and never really “owned” Africa. They are building roads, factories, powerplants, dams…

问题：如果中国不行了，哪个国家能成为新的世界工厂？

不可能是单个国家。

只能是整个大洲。

中国已经开始将部分生产转移到非洲。随着中国摆脱低端生产，他们需要在其他国家建设基础设施。他们通过“一带一路”向许多非洲国家投入了大量资源。

非洲国家与中国的关系相当好。历史上就一直很好。中国强烈支持非洲国家的独立运动，但却从未真正“占有”非洲。中国正在非洲修建道路、工厂、发电厂、大坝……

According to CNBC, The total value of Chinese investments and construction in Africa is closing in on $2 trillion since 2005, according to the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) China Global Investment Tracker.

据CNBC报道，根据美国企业研究所中国全球投资追踪机构的数据，自2005年以来，中国在非洲的投资和建设总额接近2万亿美元。