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YouTube网友讨论：台海战争军棋推演
War Games: The Battle For Taiwan
2022-05-24
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网友：中国不会先攻击美国在日本，澳大利亚得基地。红队只需要专注于台湾，封锁任何可能抵达台湾得外部支援就可以了。不要忘了中国一直将台湾问题视为是国内事务。这是一场内战，而不是国际战争。
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评论翻译
Christina Law
China can level Taiwan with missiles, without setting one foot on their land, this is a problem we have to face if we want Taiwan to have any chance of surviving a war with China. Give them the ability to strike long range missile systems and aircrafts.
大陆不用踏上台湾岛就可以用导弹把台湾夷为平地，如果我们想要让台湾在和大陆的战争中活下来就必须面对这个问题，我们应该让台湾拥有打击远程导弹系统和飞机的能力
Doug Fraser
@Christina Law Are you in Highschool, Taiwan has a complete defense system of missiles that have been supplied by the United States decades ago, it is not a back water Nation, it's armed heavily. Is it a match to Chinas capabilities, of course not, but it certainly has the ability to defend itself!
你是高中生吗，台湾地区拥有完整的导弹防御系统，这是美国数十年前给他们的。台湾不是一个落后的地区，它拥有大量的武装力量。台湾的军事力量可以和大陆相匹敌吗，当然不行，但它肯定拥有自我保护的能力
Christina Law
@Doug Fraser 10 anti air systems and 50 jets vs 10000000 Chinese missiles, how does that work?
10架反导系统和50架飞机VS 1000万枚中国导弹，你觉得台湾地区的这点武器会有用吗？
Doug Fraser
@Christina Law If you're talking nuclear, that's incorrect as Russia is first, followed by the United States and China is a distant third for nuclear missiles. If you're talking conventional ballistics, I'm not sure but I will google it to find out!
如果你说的是核导弹数量，那么这个数据是不正确的，因为俄罗斯是第一，美国是第二，中国远远落后是第三。如果你指的是常规弹道导弹，那么我就不知道中国的具体数量了， 不过谷歌一下就可以查出来
Christina Law
@Doug Fraser I'm talking conventional precision missiles, China have A LOT, more than enough to overwhelm Taiwan, even Israel Iron dome cannot stop all of them. If Taiwan wants to win, they must have 10,000 more anti missile systems.
我说的是常规精确制导导弹，中国拥有很多这类武器，足以压倒台湾地区，甚至就连以色列的铁穹防御系统也无法全部拦截。如果台湾地区想赢，他们必须再部署1万套反导系统。
tomtube1012
Something they missed when comparing Russia invading Ukraine to the China/Taiwan situation is that Ukraine is many times larger than Taiwan. Russia has taken most of the Donbass area which is already much larger than Taiwan.
他们在拿俄乌战争和台海局势进行对比的时候忽略了一个问题，那就是乌克兰比台湾地区大很多倍。俄罗斯占领的大部分顿巴斯地区面积就已经比整个台湾地区大了
DC 10
China will not strike US bases in Japan, and Australia first. The Red team only needs to focus on Taiwan alone and block any possible outside support trying to get to Taiwan. Don't forget China always consider Taiwan issue is an internal affair. It will be a civil war, not an international war.
中国不会先攻击美国在日本，澳大利亚得基地。红队只需要专注于台湾，封锁任何可能抵达台湾得外部支援就可以了。不要忘了中国一直将台湾问题视为是国内事务。这是一场内战，而不是国际战争。
Martin Brain
Agree with you, Anti-Access/Area Denial
同意你的观点，反介入/区域拒止
Andrew Chan
Agree. But China is also prepared to act if US start the offensive. Reason -The International countries are interfering with China's internal affair.Unlike US invading other countries, China is protecting its boundaries.
同意，但如果美国先采取进攻，那么中国也会准备展开行动，原因——国际上有些国家正在干预中国内政，和美国入侵其他国家不同，中国是在保护自己的边境
doctadeath2020
The assumption is China won't be able to survive a long sanctioned like Russia. If they are going to do this, they need to go fast and hard.
军棋推演假设认为中国无法像俄罗斯那样在长期的制裁下生存下来。如果他们真要这样做的话，就必须快刀斩乱麻
Al Superbee
@doctadeath2020 These war-gamers had a lot of naïve assumptions.
这些军棋推演的很多假设都很幼稚
Test Phone
@doctadeath2020 war depends on supplies, Taiwan is located close to Chinese mainland and China is the world factory. China’s weakness is energy and food but with Russia’s support the situation is much better for China. With A2AD it is harder for others to get close to Taiwan without risking their lives. China only need to announce blockade on Taiwan, or even just talking about the possibilities of the blockade, no commercial ships would get close. Taiwan’s gas supply only lasts a couple of weeks. If the war depends on supplies, China would have a better chance.
战争取决于后勤供应，台湾地区距离大陆非常近，而且中国是世界工厂。中国的弱点在于能源和粮食，但有了俄罗斯的支持，中国的局势将大为改善。有了反介入区域拒止武器，在不冒生命危险的情况下其他人很难靠近台湾。中国只需要宣布对台湾地区进行封锁，或者露出一点可能要进行封锁的口风，就不会再有商船靠近这个地区。台湾的天然气供应只能维持几周。如果战争取决于后勤供应的话，那么中国赢得机会更大
Zann Rebel
@Test Phone Russia can't support itself right now. How's it going to support china?
俄罗斯现在自己都养不活自己了，要如何支持中国？
Test Phone
@Zann Rebel Russia send its energy and food to China and get whatever they need from China. They support each other. Russia might not be able to live a luxury lifestyle but basic needs can definitely be met.
俄罗斯可以将能源和粮食运到中国，中国可以给他们任何想要的东西。他们相互支持。俄罗斯或许无法过上奢侈的生活，但基本需求绝对可以得到满足
Shiu Lai
All nations separated due to geopolitical reasons long for reunification. This was true for Germany and .Vietnam. This is true for China and the Koreas.
Germany and Vietnam succeeded.
China and the Koreas are struggling to do so.
所有因地缘政治原因而导致分裂的国家都渴望可以重新统一。德国如此，越南如此。中国和南北朝鲜也是如此。德国也越南已经统一了。中国和南北朝鲜正在努力实现国家统一。
Han Huynh
I live during the Vietnam wars.
I also have many Taiwanese friends.
To me Taiwanese or main land Chinese are same to me except different thinking, but that different thinking is not that dangerous. What is dangerous is Taiwan get the foreigners help. When this happens, China is force to act!
I give you one example, if the Island of Hawaii would like to separate from the US. The islanders are not even have the same culture or even language and it make totally sense to separate! Now if China or Russia support the idea and help Hawaii goes against the US, at this point do you think the US won’t do anything?
我经历过越南战争
我也有很多的台湾朋友
对我来说，除了思维方式不同之外，台湾人和大陆人并没有什么区别，但思维差异并不会造成什么危险，真正危险的是台湾地区获得外国的援助，一旦发生这种事情，中国就要被迫采取行动。
我给你举个例子，假如夏威夷想要脱离美国，鉴于夏威夷岛民文化语言和美国人完全不一样，所以夏威夷要脱离美国是完全有道理的。现在如果中国或者俄罗斯支持夏威夷的这个想法，并帮助夏威夷对抗美国，这时候你认为美国会什么都不做吗？
Taiwanese speak, write and even teach Chinese history. To me, I think Taiwan should come back to China voluntary to avoid both sides people from killing each other.
Foreigners are there not for the Taiwanese interests, they are there trying to weaken China and use Taiwan as a battle ground.
There are no winners when wars started, only losers!
台湾人说中文，写汉字，甚至学的也是中国历史。我认为台湾应该自愿和大陆统一，以避免两岸人民自相残杀的局面出现。
外国人介入台海事务不是为了台湾人的利益，而是为了要削弱中国，他们是把台湾当作了战场。战争一旦开始就没有赢家，所有人都是输家
south Vietnam followed the US and they lost the country! Over two millions Vietnamese sacrificed and now Vietnam and US are friends again. Tell me who’s is the winner?
It’s not hard to see, just looking back into history! Anyone follow the US, the outcome is deadly!
南越追随美国，他们失去了这个国家，牺牲了两百万越南人，现在越南和美国又重新成为了朋友，告诉我谁是赢家？回顾历史不难看出，任何追随美国的人都不会有好下场。
华华
@Han Huynh nice。Foreigners are there not for the Taiwanese interests, they are there trying to weaken China.
说的好，外国人介入台湾问题不是为了台湾人的利益，他们是为了试图削弱中国。
原文地址：
China can level Taiwan with missiles, without setting one foot on their land, this is a problem we have to face if we want Taiwan to have any chance of surviving a war with China. Give them the ability to strike long range missile systems and aircrafts.
大陆不用踏上台湾岛就可以用导弹把台湾夷为平地，如果我们想要让台湾在和大陆的战争中活下来就必须面对这个问题，我们应该让台湾拥有打击远程导弹系统和飞机的能力
Doug Fraser
@Christina Law Are you in Highschool, Taiwan has a complete defense system of missiles that have been supplied by the United States decades ago, it is not a back water Nation, it's armed heavily. Is it a match to Chinas capabilities, of course not, but it certainly has the ability to defend itself!
你是高中生吗，台湾地区拥有完整的导弹防御系统，这是美国数十年前给他们的。台湾不是一个落后的地区，它拥有大量的武装力量。台湾的军事力量可以和大陆相匹敌吗，当然不行，但它肯定拥有自我保护的能力
Christina Law
@Doug Fraser 10 anti air systems and 50 jets vs 10000000 Chinese missiles, how does that work?
10架反导系统和50架飞机VS 1000万枚中国导弹，你觉得台湾地区的这点武器会有用吗？
Doug Fraser
@Christina Law If you're talking nuclear, that's incorrect as Russia is first, followed by the United States and China is a distant third for nuclear missiles. If you're talking conventional ballistics, I'm not sure but I will google it to find out!
如果你说的是核导弹数量，那么这个数据是不正确的，因为俄罗斯是第一，美国是第二，中国远远落后是第三。如果你指的是常规弹道导弹，那么我就不知道中国的具体数量了， 不过谷歌一下就可以查出来
Christina Law
@Doug Fraser I'm talking conventional precision missiles, China have A LOT, more than enough to overwhelm Taiwan, even Israel Iron dome cannot stop all of them. If Taiwan wants to win, they must have 10,000 more anti missile systems.
我说的是常规精确制导导弹，中国拥有很多这类武器，足以压倒台湾地区，甚至就连以色列的铁穹防御系统也无法全部拦截。如果台湾地区想赢，他们必须再部署1万套反导系统。
tomtube1012
Something they missed when comparing Russia invading Ukraine to the China/Taiwan situation is that Ukraine is many times larger than Taiwan. Russia has taken most of the Donbass area which is already much larger than Taiwan.
他们在拿俄乌战争和台海局势进行对比的时候忽略了一个问题，那就是乌克兰比台湾地区大很多倍。俄罗斯占领的大部分顿巴斯地区面积就已经比整个台湾地区大了
DC 10
China will not strike US bases in Japan, and Australia first. The Red team only needs to focus on Taiwan alone and block any possible outside support trying to get to Taiwan. Don't forget China always consider Taiwan issue is an internal affair. It will be a civil war, not an international war.
中国不会先攻击美国在日本，澳大利亚得基地。红队只需要专注于台湾，封锁任何可能抵达台湾得外部支援就可以了。不要忘了中国一直将台湾问题视为是国内事务。这是一场内战，而不是国际战争。
Martin Brain
Agree with you, Anti-Access/Area Denial
同意你的观点，反介入/区域拒止
Andrew Chan
Agree. But China is also prepared to act if US start the offensive. Reason -The International countries are interfering with China's internal affair.Unlike US invading other countries, China is protecting its boundaries.
同意，但如果美国先采取进攻，那么中国也会准备展开行动，原因——国际上有些国家正在干预中国内政，和美国入侵其他国家不同，中国是在保护自己的边境
doctadeath2020
The assumption is China won't be able to survive a long sanctioned like Russia. If they are going to do this, they need to go fast and hard.
军棋推演假设认为中国无法像俄罗斯那样在长期的制裁下生存下来。如果他们真要这样做的话，就必须快刀斩乱麻
Al Superbee
@doctadeath2020 These war-gamers had a lot of naïve assumptions.
这些军棋推演的很多假设都很幼稚
Test Phone
@doctadeath2020 war depends on supplies, Taiwan is located close to Chinese mainland and China is the world factory. China’s weakness is energy and food but with Russia’s support the situation is much better for China. With A2AD it is harder for others to get close to Taiwan without risking their lives. China only need to announce blockade on Taiwan, or even just talking about the possibilities of the blockade, no commercial ships would get close. Taiwan’s gas supply only lasts a couple of weeks. If the war depends on supplies, China would have a better chance.
战争取决于后勤供应，台湾地区距离大陆非常近，而且中国是世界工厂。中国的弱点在于能源和粮食，但有了俄罗斯的支持，中国的局势将大为改善。有了反介入区域拒止武器，在不冒生命危险的情况下其他人很难靠近台湾。中国只需要宣布对台湾地区进行封锁，或者露出一点可能要进行封锁的口风，就不会再有商船靠近这个地区。台湾的天然气供应只能维持几周。如果战争取决于后勤供应的话，那么中国赢得机会更大
Zann Rebel
@Test Phone Russia can't support itself right now. How's it going to support china?
俄罗斯现在自己都养不活自己了，要如何支持中国？
Test Phone
@Zann Rebel Russia send its energy and food to China and get whatever they need from China. They support each other. Russia might not be able to live a luxury lifestyle but basic needs can definitely be met.
俄罗斯可以将能源和粮食运到中国，中国可以给他们任何想要的东西。他们相互支持。俄罗斯或许无法过上奢侈的生活，但基本需求绝对可以得到满足
Shiu Lai
All nations separated due to geopolitical reasons long for reunification. This was true for Germany and .Vietnam. This is true for China and the Koreas.
Germany and Vietnam succeeded.
China and the Koreas are struggling to do so.
所有因地缘政治原因而导致分裂的国家都渴望可以重新统一。德国如此，越南如此。中国和南北朝鲜也是如此。德国也越南已经统一了。中国和南北朝鲜正在努力实现国家统一。
Han Huynh
I live during the Vietnam wars.
I also have many Taiwanese friends.
To me Taiwanese or main land Chinese are same to me except different thinking, but that different thinking is not that dangerous. What is dangerous is Taiwan get the foreigners help. When this happens, China is force to act!
I give you one example, if the Island of Hawaii would like to separate from the US. The islanders are not even have the same culture or even language and it make totally sense to separate! Now if China or Russia support the idea and help Hawaii goes against the US, at this point do you think the US won’t do anything?
我经历过越南战争
我也有很多的台湾朋友
对我来说，除了思维方式不同之外，台湾人和大陆人并没有什么区别，但思维差异并不会造成什么危险，真正危险的是台湾地区获得外国的援助，一旦发生这种事情，中国就要被迫采取行动。
我给你举个例子，假如夏威夷想要脱离美国，鉴于夏威夷岛民文化语言和美国人完全不一样，所以夏威夷要脱离美国是完全有道理的。现在如果中国或者俄罗斯支持夏威夷的这个想法，并帮助夏威夷对抗美国，这时候你认为美国会什么都不做吗？
Taiwanese speak, write and even teach Chinese history. To me, I think Taiwan should come back to China voluntary to avoid both sides people from killing each other.
Foreigners are there not for the Taiwanese interests, they are there trying to weaken China and use Taiwan as a battle ground.
There are no winners when wars started, only losers!
台湾人说中文，写汉字，甚至学的也是中国历史。我认为台湾应该自愿和大陆统一，以避免两岸人民自相残杀的局面出现。
外国人介入台海事务不是为了台湾人的利益，而是为了要削弱中国，他们是把台湾当作了战场。战争一旦开始就没有赢家，所有人都是输家
south Vietnam followed the US and they lost the country! Over two millions Vietnamese sacrificed and now Vietnam and US are friends again. Tell me who’s is the winner?
It’s not hard to see, just looking back into history! Anyone follow the US, the outcome is deadly!
南越追随美国，他们失去了这个国家，牺牲了两百万越南人，现在越南和美国又重新成为了朋友，告诉我谁是赢家？回顾历史不难看出，任何追随美国的人都不会有好下场。
华华
@Han Huynh nice。Foreigners are there not for the Taiwanese interests, they are there trying to weaken China.
说的好，外国人介入台湾问题不是为了台湾人的利益，他们是为了试图削弱中国。
