德国网民讨论：研究表明，停止俄罗斯天然气供应的成本可能将占到德国 GDP 的 12%
Study puts cost of halting Russian gas supply at 12% of German GDP
Government adviser says Europe’s largest economy faces big hit if Berlin accepts Russia gas ban
Germany’s economy faces losing around 12 per cent of its annual output — some €429bn — if Russian natural gas supplies stopped abruptly, according to a new study by an adviser to the government.
研究表明，停止俄罗斯天然气供应的成本可能将占到德国 GDP 的 12%
政府顾问表示，如果柏林当局接受禁止购买俄罗斯天然气的禁令，这个欧洲最大的经济体将面临重大打击
根据政府顾问的一项新研究，如果俄罗斯的天然气供应突然停止，德国经济将面临约 12% 的年产量损失——约 4290 亿欧元。
The study by Tom Krebs, an economics professor at the University of Mannheim who advises the finance ministry in Berlin on economic policy, is more pessimistic than most previous estimates and is likely to stiffen the government’s resolve in resisting calls for an immediate EU embargo on all Russian energy imports.
It is also likely to fuel an often-fraught debate between German economists over whether the country could handle the economic impact of a ban on natural gas.
The estimate comes as Brussels is preparing to step up its sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine by phasing in a ban on oil imports from Russia, adding to an earlier coal embargo, while Germany is searching for ways to reduce its heavy reliance on Russian gas.
“An instant and complete stop of Russian natural gas imports would, in combination with the already agreed coal embargo and the forthcoming oil embargo, probably amount to an economic slump comparable to the decline in GDP during the 2009 financial crisis or the 2020 Corona crisis,” said Krebs.
Other estimates have put the impact of a sudden halt to Russian gas imports at between 0.2 and 6.5 per cent of German GDP.
Germany, which until the war received 55 per cent of its imported gas from Russia, reduced this to 35 per cent in April by increasing alternative supplies and aims to lower it to 30 per cent by the end of the year. However, the economy ministry said recently it would take until 2024 to reduce the share of gas imports coming from Russia to 10 per cent and industry leaders worry that a sudden gas shut-off could still paralyse large parts of the country’s manufacturing sector.
曼海姆大学经济学教授汤姆·克雷布斯为柏林财政部提供经济政策建议，这项研究比大多数先前的估计更为悲观，可能会加强政府抵制欧盟要求所有成员国立即实施对俄罗斯能源进口禁运的呼吁的决心。
这也可能引发德国经济学家之间关于该国是否能够应对天然气禁令的经济影响的经常令人担忧的辩论。
这一估计是在布鲁塞尔准备加强对莫斯科入侵乌克兰的制裁、逐步禁止从俄罗斯进口石油以及早些时候增加的煤炭禁运政策的时候作出的，而德国正在寻找减少对其天然气严重依赖于俄罗斯的的方法。
“立即完全停止俄罗斯天然气进口，再加上已经商定的煤炭禁运和即将到来的石油禁运，可能会导致经济下滑，与 2009 年金融危机或 2020 年新冠危机期间 GDP 的下降幅度相当， ”克雷布斯说。
其他的估计表明，突然停止俄罗斯天然气进口对于德国 GDP的影响在 0.2% 至 6.5% 之间。
德国在乌克兰战争开始前从俄罗斯进口天然气的占其全部需求的 55%，今年 4 月通过增加替代供应将这一比例降至 35%，并计划在年底前将这一比例降至 30%。然而，经济部最近表示，要到 2024 年才能将来自俄罗斯的天然气进口份额最终降至 10%，行业领袖担心，突然关闭俄罗斯天然气进口仍可能使该国大部分制造业陷入瘫痪。
Some economists support the government’s gradual approach, warning a sudden, continent-wide supply cut-off could permanently damage the competitiveness of Europe’s economy and even fuel social unrest. But others say ending Russian energy imports would be “manageable” for the German economy. Rüdiger Bachmann, an economics professor at the University of Notre Dame, who co-wrote a report that suggested the maximum hit was just 3 per cent of GDP, told the FT an embargo would only lead to a “temporary crisis”. He added: “Germany has the fiscal capacity to pay for this.”
Krebs’ study analysed the “second-round effects” of gas shortages that would force key industries to stop production, including in the automotive, chemicals, metals, food, glass, ceramics, machinery and paper sectors.
Drawing on earlier studies of the impact on Japanese industrial production after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Krebs concluded there would be a fivefold magnifying effect of the initial impact of lower production in gas-intensive industries.
Krebs presented two scenarios, one in which Germany could not easily replace much of the Russian gas it imports and another where this is more successful than expected.
In the first scenario, he assumed a drop in production that wipes out between 3.2 and 8 per cent, or between €114bn and €286bn, of German GDP. On top of that he predicted a hit to demand caused by higher prices equal to between 2 and 4 per cent of GDP. In total, the loss of GDP in the year after an abrupt ending of Russian energy imports would be between 5.2 and 12 per cent.
一些经济学家支持政府的渐进式做法，警告称，欧洲大陆范围内的突然供应中断可能会永久性地损害欧洲经济的竞争力，甚至会加剧社会动荡。但其他人表示，结束俄罗斯的能源进口对德国经济来说是“可控的”。圣母大学经济学教授吕迪格·巴赫曼与其他人联合撰写了一份报告，认为经济的最大降幅仅为 GDP 的 3%，他告诉英国《金融时报》，禁运只会导致“暂时的危机”。他补充说：“德国有财政能力为此买单。”
克雷布斯的研究分析了天然气短缺的“第二轮影响”，这将迫使许多关键性行业停产，包括汽车、化工、金属、食品、玻璃、陶瓷、机械和造纸行业等。
根据福岛核灾难后对日本工业生产影响的早期研究，克雷布斯得出结论，天然气需求密集型行业产量下降的最初影响将放大五倍。
克雷布斯提出了两种情况，一种是德国无法轻易替代其进口的大部分俄罗斯天然气，另一种是比预期更成功。
在第一种情况下，他假设生产下降会抹去德国 GDP 的 3.2% 至 8%，即 1140 亿欧元至 2860 亿欧元。最重要的是，他预测更高的天然气价格对需求造成的打击相当于 GDP 的 2% 至 4%。总体而言，突然终止俄罗斯能源进口后一年的 GDP 损失将在 5.2% 至 12% 之间。
In the milder scenario, the hit to production would be between 1.2 and 3 per cent of GDP, so the overall loss of GDP would be between 3.2 and 7 per cent.
“When it comes to natural gas, there is a significant difference between a one-year adjustment period and a three-year adjustment period,” wrote Krebs, whose study was funded by the Macroeconomic Policy Institute in Düsseldorf, which is part of the trade unx-affiliated Hans Böckler Foundation.
Last month, Russia cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria after they refused to change the way they pay Moscow for gas to enable the Kremlin to access the cash it receives for energy exports. But officials in Germany — and official technical guidance from the EU — indicate they believe a sanctions-compliant payment method is still possible.
在较温和的情况下，对生产的影响将在 GDP 的 1.2% 至 3% 之间，因此 GDP 的总体损失将在 3.2% 至 7% 之间。
“在天然气方面，一年调整期和三年调整期之间存在显着差异，”克雷布斯写道，他的研究由杜塞尔多夫宏观经济政策研究所资助，该研究所是贸易工会附属的汉斯-伯克勒基金会的一部分。
上个月，俄罗斯切断了对波兰和保加利亚的天然气供应，原因是它们拒绝改变向莫斯科支付天然气费用的方式，以使克里姆林宫能够获得用于能源出口的现金。但德国官员——以及来自欧盟的官方技术指导——表明，他们认为符合制裁的支付方式仍然是有可行性的。
