为什么美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦又要来中国?
Janet Yellen is the Treasury Secretary
Ultimately every Sanction against Chinese Companies or Blacklists or Russia originate from the US Treasury
The Elections are in Six months or so
Ukraine is a huge embarrassment for the Biden Administration where Ukraine is being skewered like a Kebab and except for a few terrorist acts which aren't exactly endearing it to the US Audience, the rest of the world are tired and sick of the country and wouldn't mind if Ukraine ceased to exist
So her primary visit is Advance Apologies and warnings
珍妮特·耶伦是财政部长
对中国公司的制裁或俄罗斯的制裁最终都来自美国财政部
选举还有大约六个月左右。
乌克兰对拜登政府来说是一个巨大的尴尬,除了一些恐怖活动外，这并不能让美国观众感到亲近，全世界对该国已经感到厌倦并且不介意乌克兰消失。
因此，她的主要访问目的是提前道歉并发出警告。
Likely a list of Chinese Banks that are doing business with Russians above the Oil Price Cap
There are 157 Russian Banks now having accounts with only 8 Chinese Banks who so business with them
Yet that's enough for almost 168 Billion RMB of Trade in the past two months
Yellen likely will give the list of Chinese Banks and say they will be sanctioned if they continue to do business with the Russians at Oil above price cap
So that China can bring in Four other Chinese Banks to do business with Russia in 30 days -60 Days and these Four Chinese Banks sanctioned can claim they aren't doing Business with Russia anymore
Its called Whac a Mole
很可能会列出与俄罗斯以超过石油价格上限进行交易的中国银行的名单。
目前只有8家中国银行与这157家俄罗斯银行进行业务往来。
仅仅这点已经足够在过去两个月中进行接近1680亿元人民币的贸易。
耶伦很可能会提供中国银行的名单，并表示如果它们继续与俄罗斯进行超过价格上限的交易，将会受到制裁。
这样中国就可以在30到60天内引入其他四家中国银行与俄罗斯展开业务往来，而这些受到制裁的四家中国银行可以声称他们不再与俄罗斯交易。
这就叫做“打地鼠”。
Its called Whac a Mole
A Second Purpose is to ask the Chinese to slow down on their capacity of Renewable Products
The Chinese make so much that the supply is enormous at a cost that the West simply can't beat and the Chinese quality is now better in most cases
This means
·Either the West has to abandon their Green Plan entirely because that would mean UTTER DEPENDENCE ON CHINA - both in Technology and Manufacturing OR
·China has to build factories in the West to make these panels and windmills and stuff which would ensure the West have a healthy share in the Sales, Service for the entire life cycle of the products, After Sales and other areas including Distribution
China won't comment until the 2024 elections because if Trump wins - Green Energy in the West is gonna be a low key topic until 2028 at least
第二个目的是要求中国减缓可再生能源产能。
中国生产的可再生能源产品数量庞大，成本优势使得西方无法匹敌，而且中国的质量在大多数情况下也更好。
这意味着，要么西方完全放弃他们的绿色计划，因为这将意味着对中国的完全依赖，无论是技术还是制造业，要么中国必须在西方建立工厂来生产这些面板、风力发电机等产品，这将确保西方在销售、售后服务和整个产品生命周期等方面有健康的份额，包括分销。
在2024年大选之前，中国不会发表评论，因为如果特朗普赢得大选，西方的绿色能源将在2028年之前都是一个低重点话题。
The Third Reason is MONEY
Plain and Simple
In 2012, 88% of Chinese Trade Surplus to US were converted to US Treasury Bonds
In 2023, None of Chinese Trade Surplus to US is converted to US Treasury Bonds. The Rest have gone to mainly buy Gold (34%), buy Energy (26%), the Belt and Road Initiative (19%) and shore up Dirhams, Rubles and Brazilian Reals through Swaps (11%). China invests 10% of its Trade Surplus in US Fannie Maes and Freddie Macs instead which is impossible to sanction or freeze
So Janet likely may ask China to buy $ 250–350 Billion worth of US Treasury Bonds, a move which can temporarily drive down inflation to 2.5% or even 2% and can be claimed as a Victory for Joe Biden
第三个原因是钱
简单明了。2012年,中国对美贸易顺差的88%被转换成美国国债
到2023年，中国对美国的贸易顺差中再也没有转换为美国国债。剩下的资金主要用于购买黄金（34%）、购买能源（26%）、“一带一路”倡议（19%）以及通过互换来稳定迪拉姆、卢布和巴西雷亚尔（11%）。中国将其贸易顺差的10%投资于美国的房利美和房地美，这是不可能制裁或冻结的。
因此，珍妮特很可能会要求中国购买价值2500-3500亿美元的美国国债，这一举措可以暂时将通胀率降至2.5%甚至2%，并被视为乔·拜登的胜利。
I doubt China will agree unless US makes heavy concessions including a temporary freeze in the Technology Export Ban
I say this because the Dutch PM visited China just before Yellen
So maybe that's a deal where China could get another 100 EUV orders from ASML in exchange for a $ 250–350 Billion buy in of T Bonds
China is the only nation in the planet that can buy $ 250–350 Billion of T Bonds without borrowing the money
UK or Japan can buy the same quantity but they have to borrow the money from their economies to do so and nobody would be willing to do that because that would cause inflation in their nations
我怀疑除非美国做出严重让步，包括暂时冻结技术出口禁令，中国才会同意。
我这么说是因为荷兰总理在耶伦之前访问了中国。
所以也许这是一个交易，中国可以从ASML获得其他100个EUV光刻机订单，作为购买2500-3500亿美元美国国债的交换
中国是唯一一个能够购买2500-3500亿美元国债而不用借贷的国家
英国或日本可以购买同样数量的国债，但他们必须从自己的经济中借款，而没有人愿意这样做，因为这将导致其国家通货膨胀
Another item could be EVERGRANDE
Evergrande has a huge chunk of foreign money tied up
If Evergrande collapses Western Investors could lose upto $ 250 -350 Billion
Exactly how much Yellen needs China to buy T Bonds for
So maybe Yellen may offer a deal, you allow Evergrande and CG to collapse and we won't make a noise if you buy the equivalent of T Bonds
Otherwise we will place all Chinese Real Estate Investments on a Blacklist
另一个可能的议题是恒大集团
恒大集团拥有大量外国投资
如果恒大集团破产，西方投资者可能会损失高达2500-3500亿美元
这正是耶伦需要中国购买国债的金额
所以也许耶伦可能会提出一个交易，如果你购买相当于这个金额的美国国债，我们就不会对恒大和CG的破产发出任何抗议声音
否则，我们将把所有中国在国外的房地产投资列入黑名单
The point is China doesn't Trust the US or the System of US anymore
Even if Biden is fully sincere, Trump could return back by 2025 January and do a 180 degree turn
So the Chinese will smile and listen and talk and give some nice words
Yet I doubt they will do anything meaningful anymore
Unless US offers something huge
In 2008, during the Global Crisis the US offered China, complete freedom to do what they wanted for five years in exchange for Chinas help in not dumping their sub prime investments
China agreed, pumped their economy with stimulus and helped the US
The US actually helped and these five years saw the Great Firewall and all those Space and Military related developments where US turned a blind eye to China
Maybe China may need promises like this with some way of ensuring the US doesn't welch out on the same
但想要完成这个协议，重点是中国不再信任美国或美国的体系
即使拜登（这个提议）完全真诚，但特朗普可能会在2025年1月回归并并做出180度的转弯
因此，中国会微笑，倾听，交谈并给一些好听的话
然而我怀疑他们不会再采取任何有意义的行动
除非美国提供重大的让步
2008年，全球金融危机期间，美国向中国提供了五年的完全自由，以换取中国不放弃其次级投资的帮助。
中国同意，推动经济刺激，并帮助美国
事实上，美国提供了帮助，这五年间中国实现了"长城防火墙"和所有与航天、军事相关的发展，美国对中国视而不见
也许中国可能需要类似的承诺，并采取某种方式确保美国不会对此做出打回票的举动。
