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中国和印度哪个经济体增长的速度最快，为什么？
Which economy is growing at the fastest rate, China or India? Why?
2022-10-20
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当然是中国，中国可以在5年内建成整个新城。中国的许多新兴城市正在发展成为中国以外的人并不熟知的智慧城市，由于中国领导层有决心和意志，所有这些都可能实现。相比之下，印度GIFT城怎么样？需要50年才能成形？
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Satish Aggarwal, former Manager (1965-1991)
Both the countries were about the same in the 1950’s, but the Gdp of China is now about 5 times that of India. It is strange that with wages so low in India, it cannot compete with China in manufacturing. However, the rate of growth in India now might exceed that of China but the base is so low that it will not be equal to it in the foreseeable future.
这两个国家在20世纪50年代的基本情况差不多，但现在中国的国内生产总值大约是印度的5倍。奇怪的是，印度的工资如此之低，但它在制造业上却无法与中国竞争。然而，印度现在的增长率可能超过了中国，但它的基数如此之低，在可预见的未来将无法与中国匹敌。
Bob MacKenzie, lives in Ontario (1973-present)
India is too dysfunctional politically and economically to beat China. India will have to pull its 500 million poor up with education and living standards before it can even begin to compete.
印度在政治和经济上都太不正常，无法打败中国。在印度开始与中国竞争之前，它将不得不提高其5亿贫困人口的教育和生活水平。
Jim Cy Sia, Business Finance from St. Cloud State University (1979)
China at faster rate and higher value
India figures often exaggerated and cov 19 will bring down the whole India economy
中国的发展速度更快，创造的价值也更高。
印度的数字常常被夸大，大流行将拖垮整个印度经济。
Rao Salman
India is not growing and will not grow anytime soon . Economy of China is speeding ahead with some forecasts giving it a 15 % growth in 2021.
Gdp of China is 6 times more than India . Only fools would believe that India could ever catch up with China . Right now India should think of coming out of the covid hell
印度的经济没有增长，短期内也不会增长。而中国经济正在加速发展，一些人预测2021年中国经济增长将高达15%。
中国的GDP是印度的6倍，只有傻瓜才会相信印度能赶上中国，现在印度应该想想怎么走出大流行的地狱。
Lynn Won
For India to truly rise, there must be a major revolution, the caste system must be completely abolished, and land reform must be carried out.
印度要真正崛起，必须进行一场重大的革命，必须彻底废除种姓制度，必须进行土地改革。
Fabian Ong, Executive Director (2013-present)，Lives in Singapore
Definitely China. India's moves forward a by certain sectors, and then move backwards a little.And not all sectors are moving forward at the same time and it does not seem to have a consistent forward momentum.
India's economy is mostly smoke and mirrors. The government tell you it's growing and the some analyst want you to believe it's growing but entire country is moving relatively slowly. Even the software sector which was the fastest growing sector 15 - 20 years ago is growing much slower today.
当然是中国。印度在某些领域取得了一些进展，然后又后退了一些，而且印度并非在所有领域都在同时前进，它的前进势头似乎并不一致。
印度的经济大多是虚无缥缈的。政府告诉你它在增长，一些分析师希望你相信它在增长，但整个国家的发展相对缓慢。即使是15-20年前增长最快的软件行业，现在的增长速度也要慢得多。
Leow Kam Soon
Surely China. China can build entire new city in 5 years.
Many new cities are developed into smart cities and non were known to people outside China. All these could materialize because China leadership has the determination and will. How is Indian GIFT city in comparison? Take 50 years to take shape?
当然是中国。中国可以在5年内建成整个新城。
中国的许多新兴城市正在发展成为中国以外的人并不熟知的智慧城市，由于中国领导层有决心和意志，所有这些都可能实现。相比之下，印度GIFT城怎么样？需要50年才能成形？
Robert Quek, former Retired. Prior Employment in Finance Sector，Lived in Lived in Singapore
Statistically, India should grow faster. It has a much lower base. GDP in India in current term in 2019 was $2.87 trillion, 1/5 of China’s $14.34 trillion. Per capita was $2,100 vs $10,262 in China.
But India’s growth fluctuated widely, from a high of over 8.5% in 2010 to 4.2% in 2019. Covid has devastated the economy in 2020, which according to IMF data fell 10.3%. Popular forecast was for a surge of over 10% in 2021. This looks unachievable in view of the current wave of Covid in the country.
从数据上看，印度应该增长得更快，因为它的基础要低得多。2019年印度的本期GDP为2.87万亿美元，是中国14.34万亿美元的1/5。人均GDP为2100美元，而中国为10262美元。
但印度的经济增长波动很大，从2010年的8.5%下降到了2019年的4.2%。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，2020年印度经济下滑了10.3%，新冠病毒给印度经济带来了巨大的破坏。之前的预测是2021年印度经济会有超过10%的增长，但考虑到目前印度国内的大流行情况，这看起来是不可能实现的。
China’s growth was steady from over 10% in the 2010’s to 8% through 2015 to 6% through to 2019. It did not suffer as much from Covid and managed to achieve growth of 2.3% in 2020. Growth in 1Q2021 was a staggering 18.3%, looks likely to exceed the Government’s target growth of 6% in 2021, maybe even exceeds IMF’s forecast of 8%.
而中国经济增长稳定，从2010年的10%以上下降到2015年的8%，再到2019年的6%。中国没有受到新冠病毒的严重影响，他们在2020年实现了2.3%的增长，而且在2021年第一季度的增长率达到了惊人的18.3%，看起来全年可能超过政府设置的2021年6%的目标增长率，甚至可能超过国际货币基金组织预测的8%。
Probability is that the India-China gap in GDP or in per capita has widened. China’s growth this year rests on high visibility factors. It should exceed India’s, which mires in uncertainties. Both countries face limits to growth going down the road. India’s less advance economy should give it more opportunities and grow faster. But it has lots more to do to realise gains. China too have lots to do - technology development, spread growth widely across the country, and more even rural and urban income and between regions.
因此，印度和中国在GDP或人均收入方面的差距有可能继续扩大。中国今年的经济增长取决于高能见度系数，它应该会超过已经陷入不确定性泥潭的印度。这两个国家都面临着未来增长的限制，但印度不太发达的经济应该能带给它更多的机会和更快的增长。中国也有很多事情要做——技术开发，让经济增长，甚至包括城乡收入和地区间的收入在全国范围内扩散等。
The limits to growth in India are:
(1) Infrastructures poor and rural trap. Infrastructures are the prerequisites of economic growth. Shortages restricts movements of people, and industrial and market developments. Such restrictions means no benefit from conurbation and urbanisation, the source of economic vibrancy, innovation, and creativity. Caught in the rural trap subject the largest segment of the population to the vagaries of the weather and low productivity. Uncertainties between low prices from bumper harvest to drought and flood and fragmented markets, make rural poverty the norm.
印度经济增长的限制是：
（1） 基础设施落后和农村陷阱。基础设施是经济增长的先决条件，基础设施的短缺限制了人口流动、工业和市场发展。这种限制意味着印度没有从城市化中获益，因为城市化是经济活力、创新和创造力的源泉。陷入农村陷阱使大部分人口受到变幻莫测的天气和低生产力的影响，从大丰收到旱涝灾害导致的低价格和支离破碎的市场之间的不确定性，使农村贫困成了常态。
(2) One explanation of rural low productivity is under-employment. Migration of rural people into urban centres should therefore wrought productivity gains. But the fruits will only be sweet if they move into gainful employment like in factories instead of becoming roadside vendors. There must be good jobs creation from urbanisation.
（2） 农村生产力低下的一个解释是就业不足。因此，农村人口向城市中心迁移应该能提高生产力。但是，只有当他们像在工厂一样从事有报酬的工作而不是成为街边小贩，他们才会有好的结果。城市化必须创造良好的就业机会。
India does not have an impressive record of industrial growth. It did not create enough jobs to yield the full measure of productivity gains. India is protectionist. The richest chunks of the most profitable businesses are owned by traditional old-rich families. Most of them cater to the domestic market and are not competitive internationally. India is not actively attracting foreign investments. FDIs that compete in the domestic market face great obstacles. Significant ones are in joint ventures with the traditional family controlled companies. On the whole, there is a lack of refresher. The manufacturing sector did not spark even a resemblance of the fervour and results you see in China. Exports from India are less than the exports from just the Chinese province of Guangdong.
India as we said has lots to do to achieve its potentials.
印度没有令人印象深刻的工业产业增长记录，它没有创造出足够的就业机会来实现生产力的全面增长。印度是保护主义者，它们的最赚钱的企业中最富有的部分是由传统的老富家庭拥有的。它们大多迎合国内市场，在国际上没有竞争力。印度也没有积极吸引外国投资。FDI（外国直接投资）在国内市场的竞争面临着巨大的障碍，印度在制造业上的热情和成就与你在中国看到的没有任何相似之处，印度的出口额低于中国广东省的出口额。
正如我们所说的，印度要实现其潜力还有很多工作要做。
China also faces limits to growth. In the main this is deliberate policy and reflects the stage of its development, (1) moving away from quantity to quality growth, (2) the emphasis on technology and innovation, (3) towards more and more domestic demand, and (4) more and more towards services rather than goods. Then there is the unique problem of the US trade war and technology war. US is a technology leader in many fields. It is also China’s largest single exports market.
中国也面临着经济发展的限制，但总的来说，中国采取的政策都是经过深思熟虑的，它适应了中国目前的发展阶段，（1）从数量增长转向质量增长，（2）强调技术和创新，（3）越来越多地转向国内需求，以及（4）越来越多地转向服务而不是商品生产。
China has already sketched its road ahead in the dual circulation strategy and 14th Five Year Plan (2021–2025), which also outlines where it sees itself through 2035. The near and medium term goals are to achieve technology self-reliance, growth of domestic demand to reduce its reliance on foreign markets, and to continue its policy to foster foreign trade and investments inward and outward in both directions.
中国已经在双循环战略和第十四个五年计划（2021-2025年）中勾勒出了前进的道路，其中也概述了到2035年的发展方向。中国近期和中期的目标是实现技术的自力更生，扩大内需，减少对国外市场的依赖，继续实行对外贸易和对外投资双向发展政策。
Michael Sue, former Studied,lived and Worked in UK HK,China,USA,Canada (1962-2021)
China’s economy is growing at the faster rate over India’s. China’s economy is driven by a broad spectrum of players …from SOE’s to private entrepreneurs . Internally in China’s domestic market there is a “free spirit” adopted by young entrepreneurs “to JUST DO IT” ! ( without interference or rigid controls from the government ). This is not the case in India where “there are still TOO MANY LEVELS OF CORRUPTION to wade through before young entrepreneurs can build on ideas or success ! ( it is like having to “grease 6 palms” to move forward 3 steps ! or ….family connections , or …..??? ) India does have huge potential but the 1% ( as in the US ) controls 90% of the wealth AND OPPORTUNITIES ! It is NOT A FREE AND OPEN MARKET !
中国经济的增长速度快于印度。中国的经济是由从国有企业到私营企业这样的一系列参与者推动的……在中国国内市场，年轻的企业家们有一种“自由精神”，他们“只管去做”（没有政府的干涉或严格控制）。但印度的情况并非如此，因为“在年轻企业家能够在创意或成功的基础上再接再厉之前，仍有太多的腐败问题有待解决！”这就像要“行贿6张嘴”才能前进3步！或者……依赖家庭关系，或者……？？？）印度确实有巨大的潜力，但印度社会的1%（就像美国一样）控制着90%的财富和机会！这不是一个自由开放的市场！
Bill Chen, Budding economist，Lives in Singapore
For argument’s sake, let us examine 2019, the last year of normalcy pre-pandemic.
China grew 6 percent to a 14 trillion economy.
India grew 4 percent to a 3 trillion economy.
Let us imagine India would have grown 10 percent a year without covid, while China slowed down to 5.
China would have added 700 billion to her economy, while India would have added 300 billion in 2020.
That is 133 percent more growth in absolute terms, because the base is different.
为了论证这个问题，让我们来看看2019年的情况，这是大流行保持正常的最后一年。
中国经济增长6%，达到14万亿美元。
印度经济增长4%，成为3万亿美元经济体。
让我们想象一下，如果没有新冠病毒，印度的年增长率达到10%，而中国则放缓到5%。
中国经济每年将增加7000亿美元，而印度则在2020年将增加3000亿美元。
由于基数不同，从绝对值来看，中国的经济增量要比印度高出133%。
It really depends on how the question is frxd, but until recently, China was winning in both absolute and relative growth from similar population base.
India's growth has swung wildly from less than 4 percent to more than 10 percent in the last decade. It is more vulnerable to external shocks.
India will also have to restructure her economy when it hits the middle income transition zone, which is what China is trying to do with the MIC 2025 plan.
But before that, the number 1 problem is also india's oldest.
The 70 year duation of the rupee, which has lost half its value versus the yuan this century.
这确实取决于怎么看待这个问题，但直到最近，中国在与印度类似的人口基础上的绝对增长和相对增长中都取得了胜利。
印度的经济增长率在过去十年里在不到4%至10%以上的幅度内大幅波动，它更容易受到外部冲击。
印度在进入中等收入转型区时也必须对经济进行重组，这正是中国在努力实施中国制造 2025计划的目的。
但在此之前，印度面临的头号问题也是印度存在的最古老的问题。
卢比贬值了70年，本世纪以来其相对于人民币贬值了一半。
Ray Comeau, Decades working in analyzing risk and plotting strategy
Thanks for request
In the middle of a 500 mile race, how do we decide who is fastest? China and India are both developing and have a long way to go.
Why China has been growing at a faster rate is a result of many differences between the two nations, of which these are a few :
Differences in literacy rates
A huge mixture of diverse cultures vs one uniform culture
22 Official languages vs one national language
An unwieldy political system of governance vs a streamlined one
Over 50 political parties vs one dominant political party
Differences in education systems
Indian trade is highly protectionist vs China being fairly open, resulting in Indian trade being the same size as Spain’s and China being the world’s largest trader.
What direction each takes in the future depends on circumstances and the ability to make adjustments as needed.
在500英里的长跑中，我们如何定义谁是最快的？中国和印度都在发展中，都有很长的路要走。
中国为什么增长速度更快？这是两国之间存在许多差异的结果，以下仅举几例：
识字率的差异
多元文化与统一文化的巨大融合的差异
22种官方语言与一种官方语言的差异
一个笨拙的政治治理体系与一个精简的政治制度的差异
50多个政党与一个占主导地位的政党
教育制度的差异
印度在贸易上存在高度的保护主义者，而中国则相对开放，这导致印度的贸易规模与西班牙相当，而中国是世界上最大的贸易国
未来各自的方向取决于实际情况和根据需要作出调整的能力。
Nimesh Parekh, Corona and it's effects in global and indian economy，Lives in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
The difference between the two is
Aggressive and consistent which defines the nature of the 2 countries, also the frxwork of both countries on how they run the country is different. India is a populous country with many country leading policies and economy scaling activities had just scaled up with big leaps in innovations and scientific approach with mammoth success in space science and technology. We are a young India now, ready to experiment and a strong leadership in the block. We hope once we stabilize from corona's cloud, we will jump back to organic growth once again. We had missed the industrial revolution which boosted research and mfging capabilities of today's many developed nations, but anyways, just as the story says, the tortoise finally wins …… so we will.
两者的区别是：
进取心和一致性决定了这两个国家的性格，此外，两国在如何管理国家方面的架构也不同。印度是一个人口大国，有许多国家主导的政策和经济扩张活动，刚刚在创新和科学技术方面取得了巨大的飞跃，在空间科学和技术方面取得了巨大的成功。我们现在是一个年轻的印度，在该地区拥有强大的领导能力。我们希望一旦我们从大流行中稳定下来，我们将再次回到自然增长。我们错过了提高了当今许多发达国家的研究和制造能力的工业革命，但不管怎样，正如故事所说，乌龟最后赢了……所以我们会赢的。
Leow Kam Soon
Modi must hold Rupee at 70 to a dollar. If Rupee fall to 100, India must calculate growth rate in terms of Rupee,and not in USD. Argentina was a great country, but now no more. USSR (Russia ) was a great country, but GDP is less than a Chinese province. Economy of a country can grow, similarly it may decline. UK economy is shrinking each year. Very soon it may fall behind Brazil…..
莫迪必须将卢比与美元保持在70比1的水平。如果卢比与美元跌至100：1，印度必须用卢比计算增长率，而不是用美元。阿根廷曾经是一个伟大的国家，但现在不再是了。苏联（俄罗斯）曾经是一个伟大的国家，但现在其国内生产总值比不上中国的一个省。一个国家的经济可以增长，同样也可以衰退。英国的经济每年都在萎缩，很快它就会落后于巴西…
Nimesh Parekh
When India attended independence Modi was not the ruler and neither was the $ to an INR 70, but then why could the, then rulers could not maintain the equilibrium of ₹ vs $… Just as they say, every Sun has a sunrise and a Sunset ….. so India's Sun set in the medivial period, but had a glorious and rich past, which was looted by innumerable nations, so now, Sun's of many are setting and India's Sun is gonna rise and shine damn bright … so bright indeed, that some will not able to see it's brightness…..
Time is coming at a very very fast pace to change the global order and rankings.
印度独立时，莫迪不是统治者，为什么当时的统治者无法维持卢比与美元的平衡呢？正如他们所说，太阳每天都会升起和落下…所以印度的太阳在中世纪就落下了，它有一个光辉灿烂的过去，但被无数国家掠夺，所以现在，许多国家的太阳正在落下，印度的太阳将会升起，闪耀着该死的光芒…它是如此明亮，以至于有些人看不到它有多亮…
改变全球秩序和排名的时刻正在以非常快的速度到来。
Leow Kam Soon
To maintain a ‘healthy’ growth rate, just use Rupee to calculate Indian GDP. If Rupee can hold firm at 1 Rupee to 1 dollar like in 1947, India is the biggest economy in the world now. With 135 Trillion economy (in INR or USD), surely no other country can come even close to mighty India.
为了保持“健康”的增长率，你只需用卢比来计算印度的GDP就可以了。如果卢比能像1947年那样保持在1卢比兑1美元的水平，印度现在就是世界上最大的经济体，拥有135万亿美元的GDP（以印度卢比或美元计），肯定没有哪个国家能比得上强大的印度。
Hank Barley, Mastered Coding, Then Traveling For Business (1982-present)
Been to both countries. China hands down. China has been growing double digits for decades, and although more matured and grew 7% - 9% in the last few, she rebounded from COVID in very good condition and will have one of the highest growth in history. India had a few years of low teen percentage growth, but they are mixed with low to no growth years too.
我去过这两个国家，很明显答案是中国。中国经济几十年来一直保持着两位数的增长，虽然在过去的几年里中国的经济发展更加成熟，增长率降到了7%-9%，但她从大流行中反弹的情况非常好，今年中国的经济增长率将是有史以来最高的速度之一。印度经济有过几年的高增长时期，但也夹杂着一些低增长或无增长的年份。
A better way to gauge is not just using statistics, but actual on the ground physical evidences. Take Delhi, the capital of India, and compare it to any of the 2nd or even 3rd level Chinese cities, and it is apparent that the Chinese had a more balance society and much better infrastructure. Unlike in India where one can see the rich and grinding poor, you will not see herds of homeless and people in rags begging food. Proper employment is such a problem in India, but in China more and more people are working their way to the middle and upper classes. Infrastructure? No comparison. You will never see Chinese crowded on top of trains, even during the annual mass journeys to home during Chinese New Year people can find safe transportation. Power is reliable in China, where brown outs are common in many cities of India, and even black outs. China has the largest car market, while the majority of Indians can’t even afford the much trumpeted $5000 Tata that can’t sustain above 50 MPH or the wheel bearings might burned up. I don’t want to upset Indian nationalists by continuing, and I think readers got the point.
一个更好的衡量方法不是使用统计数据，而是实际的实地考察。以印度首都德里为例，将其与中国的任何一个二线甚至三线城市相比较，你会发现中国人显然拥有一个更加平衡的社会和更好的基础设施。与到处都可以看到贫富差异的印度不同，在中国你不会看到成群结队的无家可归者和衣衫褴褛的人在乞讨食物。在印度，真正的就业是一个大问题，但在中国，越来越多的人以自己的方式进入中上层社会。基础设施？两者没有可比性，你永远不会看到中国人挤在火车上，即使是在每年春节回家的路上，人们也能找到安全的交通工具。在中国，电力是可靠的，而在印度的许多城市，停电是常事。中国拥有世界上最大的汽车市场，而大多数印度人甚至买不起他们大肆宣传的5000美元的，时速无法维持在50英里以上，否则车轮轴承可能会烧坏的塔塔轿车。我不想再继续下去，否则印度的民族主义者会感到不安，我想读者们明白这一点。
Anyway, I expect counter arguments that what I described is up till now and India will grow faster in the future. Will it, but I don’t see how. The Chinese economy is still growing on top of a much bigger base. Automation in its famed manufacturing and supply chain is one of the highest in the world, and higher rate to come. AI, ML, Big Data, 5G (6G is coming soon), and many many advanced techs are increasing implemented in cooperative manners, and their effects can be seen and felt. Meanwhile, India struggles with focus, social and ethnic issues, and oh those grinding poor masses.
不管怎样，我希望有人反驳我的描述并告诉我印度在未来会发展得更快。会的，但我不知道要怎么实现。中国经济在更大的基础上仍在增长，在其著名的制造业和供应链中，中国的自动化程度位列世界最高之一，而且发展速度更快。中国的AI、ML、大数据、5G（即将推出6G）以及许多先进技术正以合作的方式越来越多地实施，其效果有目共睹。与此同时，印度正在社会和种族问题以及那些可怜的穷人问题上挣扎。
原文地址：
Both the countries were about the same in the 1950’s, but the Gdp of China is now about 5 times that of India. It is strange that with wages so low in India, it cannot compete with China in manufacturing. However, the rate of growth in India now might exceed that of China but the base is so low that it will not be equal to it in the foreseeable future.
这两个国家在20世纪50年代的基本情况差不多，但现在中国的国内生产总值大约是印度的5倍。奇怪的是，印度的工资如此之低，但它在制造业上却无法与中国竞争。然而，印度现在的增长率可能超过了中国，但它的基数如此之低，在可预见的未来将无法与中国匹敌。
Bob MacKenzie, lives in Ontario (1973-present)
India is too dysfunctional politically and economically to beat China. India will have to pull its 500 million poor up with education and living standards before it can even begin to compete.
印度在政治和经济上都太不正常，无法打败中国。在印度开始与中国竞争之前，它将不得不提高其5亿贫困人口的教育和生活水平。
Jim Cy Sia, Business Finance from St. Cloud State University (1979)
China at faster rate and higher value
India figures often exaggerated and cov 19 will bring down the whole India economy
中国的发展速度更快，创造的价值也更高。
印度的数字常常被夸大，大流行将拖垮整个印度经济。
Rao Salman
India is not growing and will not grow anytime soon . Economy of China is speeding ahead with some forecasts giving it a 15 % growth in 2021.
Gdp of China is 6 times more than India . Only fools would believe that India could ever catch up with China . Right now India should think of coming out of the covid hell
印度的经济没有增长，短期内也不会增长。而中国经济正在加速发展，一些人预测2021年中国经济增长将高达15%。
中国的GDP是印度的6倍，只有傻瓜才会相信印度能赶上中国，现在印度应该想想怎么走出大流行的地狱。
Lynn Won
For India to truly rise, there must be a major revolution, the caste system must be completely abolished, and land reform must be carried out.
印度要真正崛起，必须进行一场重大的革命，必须彻底废除种姓制度，必须进行土地改革。
Fabian Ong, Executive Director (2013-present)，Lives in Singapore
Definitely China. India's moves forward a by certain sectors, and then move backwards a little.And not all sectors are moving forward at the same time and it does not seem to have a consistent forward momentum.
India's economy is mostly smoke and mirrors. The government tell you it's growing and the some analyst want you to believe it's growing but entire country is moving relatively slowly. Even the software sector which was the fastest growing sector 15 - 20 years ago is growing much slower today.
当然是中国。印度在某些领域取得了一些进展，然后又后退了一些，而且印度并非在所有领域都在同时前进，它的前进势头似乎并不一致。
印度的经济大多是虚无缥缈的。政府告诉你它在增长，一些分析师希望你相信它在增长，但整个国家的发展相对缓慢。即使是15-20年前增长最快的软件行业，现在的增长速度也要慢得多。
Leow Kam Soon
Surely China. China can build entire new city in 5 years.
Many new cities are developed into smart cities and non were known to people outside China. All these could materialize because China leadership has the determination and will. How is Indian GIFT city in comparison? Take 50 years to take shape?
当然是中国。中国可以在5年内建成整个新城。
中国的许多新兴城市正在发展成为中国以外的人并不熟知的智慧城市，由于中国领导层有决心和意志，所有这些都可能实现。相比之下，印度GIFT城怎么样？需要50年才能成形？
Robert Quek, former Retired. Prior Employment in Finance Sector，Lived in Lived in Singapore
Statistically, India should grow faster. It has a much lower base. GDP in India in current term in 2019 was $2.87 trillion, 1/5 of China’s $14.34 trillion. Per capita was $2,100 vs $10,262 in China.
But India’s growth fluctuated widely, from a high of over 8.5% in 2010 to 4.2% in 2019. Covid has devastated the economy in 2020, which according to IMF data fell 10.3%. Popular forecast was for a surge of over 10% in 2021. This looks unachievable in view of the current wave of Covid in the country.
从数据上看，印度应该增长得更快，因为它的基础要低得多。2019年印度的本期GDP为2.87万亿美元，是中国14.34万亿美元的1/5。人均GDP为2100美元，而中国为10262美元。
但印度的经济增长波动很大，从2010年的8.5%下降到了2019年的4.2%。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，2020年印度经济下滑了10.3%，新冠病毒给印度经济带来了巨大的破坏。之前的预测是2021年印度经济会有超过10%的增长，但考虑到目前印度国内的大流行情况，这看起来是不可能实现的。
China’s growth was steady from over 10% in the 2010’s to 8% through 2015 to 6% through to 2019. It did not suffer as much from Covid and managed to achieve growth of 2.3% in 2020. Growth in 1Q2021 was a staggering 18.3%, looks likely to exceed the Government’s target growth of 6% in 2021, maybe even exceeds IMF’s forecast of 8%.
而中国经济增长稳定，从2010年的10%以上下降到2015年的8%，再到2019年的6%。中国没有受到新冠病毒的严重影响，他们在2020年实现了2.3%的增长，而且在2021年第一季度的增长率达到了惊人的18.3%，看起来全年可能超过政府设置的2021年6%的目标增长率，甚至可能超过国际货币基金组织预测的8%。
Probability is that the India-China gap in GDP or in per capita has widened. China’s growth this year rests on high visibility factors. It should exceed India’s, which mires in uncertainties. Both countries face limits to growth going down the road. India’s less advance economy should give it more opportunities and grow faster. But it has lots more to do to realise gains. China too have lots to do - technology development, spread growth widely across the country, and more even rural and urban income and between regions.
因此，印度和中国在GDP或人均收入方面的差距有可能继续扩大。中国今年的经济增长取决于高能见度系数，它应该会超过已经陷入不确定性泥潭的印度。这两个国家都面临着未来增长的限制，但印度不太发达的经济应该能带给它更多的机会和更快的增长。中国也有很多事情要做——技术开发，让经济增长，甚至包括城乡收入和地区间的收入在全国范围内扩散等。
The limits to growth in India are:
(1) Infrastructures poor and rural trap. Infrastructures are the prerequisites of economic growth. Shortages restricts movements of people, and industrial and market developments. Such restrictions means no benefit from conurbation and urbanisation, the source of economic vibrancy, innovation, and creativity. Caught in the rural trap subject the largest segment of the population to the vagaries of the weather and low productivity. Uncertainties between low prices from bumper harvest to drought and flood and fragmented markets, make rural poverty the norm.
印度经济增长的限制是：
（1） 基础设施落后和农村陷阱。基础设施是经济增长的先决条件，基础设施的短缺限制了人口流动、工业和市场发展。这种限制意味着印度没有从城市化中获益，因为城市化是经济活力、创新和创造力的源泉。陷入农村陷阱使大部分人口受到变幻莫测的天气和低生产力的影响，从大丰收到旱涝灾害导致的低价格和支离破碎的市场之间的不确定性，使农村贫困成了常态。
(2) One explanation of rural low productivity is under-employment. Migration of rural people into urban centres should therefore wrought productivity gains. But the fruits will only be sweet if they move into gainful employment like in factories instead of becoming roadside vendors. There must be good jobs creation from urbanisation.
（2） 农村生产力低下的一个解释是就业不足。因此，农村人口向城市中心迁移应该能提高生产力。但是，只有当他们像在工厂一样从事有报酬的工作而不是成为街边小贩，他们才会有好的结果。城市化必须创造良好的就业机会。
India does not have an impressive record of industrial growth. It did not create enough jobs to yield the full measure of productivity gains. India is protectionist. The richest chunks of the most profitable businesses are owned by traditional old-rich families. Most of them cater to the domestic market and are not competitive internationally. India is not actively attracting foreign investments. FDIs that compete in the domestic market face great obstacles. Significant ones are in joint ventures with the traditional family controlled companies. On the whole, there is a lack of refresher. The manufacturing sector did not spark even a resemblance of the fervour and results you see in China. Exports from India are less than the exports from just the Chinese province of Guangdong.
India as we said has lots to do to achieve its potentials.
印度没有令人印象深刻的工业产业增长记录，它没有创造出足够的就业机会来实现生产力的全面增长。印度是保护主义者，它们的最赚钱的企业中最富有的部分是由传统的老富家庭拥有的。它们大多迎合国内市场，在国际上没有竞争力。印度也没有积极吸引外国投资。FDI（外国直接投资）在国内市场的竞争面临着巨大的障碍，印度在制造业上的热情和成就与你在中国看到的没有任何相似之处，印度的出口额低于中国广东省的出口额。
正如我们所说的，印度要实现其潜力还有很多工作要做。
China also faces limits to growth. In the main this is deliberate policy and reflects the stage of its development, (1) moving away from quantity to quality growth, (2) the emphasis on technology and innovation, (3) towards more and more domestic demand, and (4) more and more towards services rather than goods. Then there is the unique problem of the US trade war and technology war. US is a technology leader in many fields. It is also China’s largest single exports market.
中国也面临着经济发展的限制，但总的来说，中国采取的政策都是经过深思熟虑的，它适应了中国目前的发展阶段，（1）从数量增长转向质量增长，（2）强调技术和创新，（3）越来越多地转向国内需求，以及（4）越来越多地转向服务而不是商品生产。
China has already sketched its road ahead in the dual circulation strategy and 14th Five Year Plan (2021–2025), which also outlines where it sees itself through 2035. The near and medium term goals are to achieve technology self-reliance, growth of domestic demand to reduce its reliance on foreign markets, and to continue its policy to foster foreign trade and investments inward and outward in both directions.
中国已经在双循环战略和第十四个五年计划（2021-2025年）中勾勒出了前进的道路，其中也概述了到2035年的发展方向。中国近期和中期的目标是实现技术的自力更生，扩大内需，减少对国外市场的依赖，继续实行对外贸易和对外投资双向发展政策。
Michael Sue, former Studied,lived and Worked in UK HK,China,USA,Canada (1962-2021)
China’s economy is growing at the faster rate over India’s. China’s economy is driven by a broad spectrum of players …from SOE’s to private entrepreneurs . Internally in China’s domestic market there is a “free spirit” adopted by young entrepreneurs “to JUST DO IT” ! ( without interference or rigid controls from the government ). This is not the case in India where “there are still TOO MANY LEVELS OF CORRUPTION to wade through before young entrepreneurs can build on ideas or success ! ( it is like having to “grease 6 palms” to move forward 3 steps ! or ….family connections , or …..??? ) India does have huge potential but the 1% ( as in the US ) controls 90% of the wealth AND OPPORTUNITIES ! It is NOT A FREE AND OPEN MARKET !
中国经济的增长速度快于印度。中国的经济是由从国有企业到私营企业这样的一系列参与者推动的……在中国国内市场，年轻的企业家们有一种“自由精神”，他们“只管去做”（没有政府的干涉或严格控制）。但印度的情况并非如此，因为“在年轻企业家能够在创意或成功的基础上再接再厉之前，仍有太多的腐败问题有待解决！”这就像要“行贿6张嘴”才能前进3步！或者……依赖家庭关系，或者……？？？）印度确实有巨大的潜力，但印度社会的1%（就像美国一样）控制着90%的财富和机会！这不是一个自由开放的市场！
Bill Chen, Budding economist，Lives in Singapore
For argument’s sake, let us examine 2019, the last year of normalcy pre-pandemic.
China grew 6 percent to a 14 trillion economy.
India grew 4 percent to a 3 trillion economy.
Let us imagine India would have grown 10 percent a year without covid, while China slowed down to 5.
China would have added 700 billion to her economy, while India would have added 300 billion in 2020.
That is 133 percent more growth in absolute terms, because the base is different.
为了论证这个问题，让我们来看看2019年的情况，这是大流行保持正常的最后一年。
中国经济增长6%，达到14万亿美元。
印度经济增长4%，成为3万亿美元经济体。
让我们想象一下，如果没有新冠病毒，印度的年增长率达到10%，而中国则放缓到5%。
中国经济每年将增加7000亿美元，而印度则在2020年将增加3000亿美元。
由于基数不同，从绝对值来看，中国的经济增量要比印度高出133%。
It really depends on how the question is frxd, but until recently, China was winning in both absolute and relative growth from similar population base.
India's growth has swung wildly from less than 4 percent to more than 10 percent in the last decade. It is more vulnerable to external shocks.
India will also have to restructure her economy when it hits the middle income transition zone, which is what China is trying to do with the MIC 2025 plan.
But before that, the number 1 problem is also india's oldest.
The 70 year duation of the rupee, which has lost half its value versus the yuan this century.
这确实取决于怎么看待这个问题，但直到最近，中国在与印度类似的人口基础上的绝对增长和相对增长中都取得了胜利。
印度的经济增长率在过去十年里在不到4%至10%以上的幅度内大幅波动，它更容易受到外部冲击。
印度在进入中等收入转型区时也必须对经济进行重组，这正是中国在努力实施中国制造 2025计划的目的。
但在此之前，印度面临的头号问题也是印度存在的最古老的问题。
卢比贬值了70年，本世纪以来其相对于人民币贬值了一半。
Ray Comeau, Decades working in analyzing risk and plotting strategy
Thanks for request
In the middle of a 500 mile race, how do we decide who is fastest? China and India are both developing and have a long way to go.
Why China has been growing at a faster rate is a result of many differences between the two nations, of which these are a few :
Differences in literacy rates
A huge mixture of diverse cultures vs one uniform culture
22 Official languages vs one national language
An unwieldy political system of governance vs a streamlined one
Over 50 political parties vs one dominant political party
Differences in education systems
Indian trade is highly protectionist vs China being fairly open, resulting in Indian trade being the same size as Spain’s and China being the world’s largest trader.
What direction each takes in the future depends on circumstances and the ability to make adjustments as needed.
在500英里的长跑中，我们如何定义谁是最快的？中国和印度都在发展中，都有很长的路要走。
中国为什么增长速度更快？这是两国之间存在许多差异的结果，以下仅举几例：
识字率的差异
多元文化与统一文化的巨大融合的差异
22种官方语言与一种官方语言的差异
一个笨拙的政治治理体系与一个精简的政治制度的差异
50多个政党与一个占主导地位的政党
教育制度的差异
印度在贸易上存在高度的保护主义者，而中国则相对开放，这导致印度的贸易规模与西班牙相当，而中国是世界上最大的贸易国
未来各自的方向取决于实际情况和根据需要作出调整的能力。
Nimesh Parekh, Corona and it's effects in global and indian economy，Lives in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
The difference between the two is
Aggressive and consistent which defines the nature of the 2 countries, also the frxwork of both countries on how they run the country is different. India is a populous country with many country leading policies and economy scaling activities had just scaled up with big leaps in innovations and scientific approach with mammoth success in space science and technology. We are a young India now, ready to experiment and a strong leadership in the block. We hope once we stabilize from corona's cloud, we will jump back to organic growth once again. We had missed the industrial revolution which boosted research and mfging capabilities of today's many developed nations, but anyways, just as the story says, the tortoise finally wins …… so we will.
两者的区别是：
进取心和一致性决定了这两个国家的性格，此外，两国在如何管理国家方面的架构也不同。印度是一个人口大国，有许多国家主导的政策和经济扩张活动，刚刚在创新和科学技术方面取得了巨大的飞跃，在空间科学和技术方面取得了巨大的成功。我们现在是一个年轻的印度，在该地区拥有强大的领导能力。我们希望一旦我们从大流行中稳定下来，我们将再次回到自然增长。我们错过了提高了当今许多发达国家的研究和制造能力的工业革命，但不管怎样，正如故事所说，乌龟最后赢了……所以我们会赢的。
Leow Kam Soon
Modi must hold Rupee at 70 to a dollar. If Rupee fall to 100, India must calculate growth rate in terms of Rupee,and not in USD. Argentina was a great country, but now no more. USSR (Russia ) was a great country, but GDP is less than a Chinese province. Economy of a country can grow, similarly it may decline. UK economy is shrinking each year. Very soon it may fall behind Brazil…..
莫迪必须将卢比与美元保持在70比1的水平。如果卢比与美元跌至100：1，印度必须用卢比计算增长率，而不是用美元。阿根廷曾经是一个伟大的国家，但现在不再是了。苏联（俄罗斯）曾经是一个伟大的国家，但现在其国内生产总值比不上中国的一个省。一个国家的经济可以增长，同样也可以衰退。英国的经济每年都在萎缩，很快它就会落后于巴西…
Nimesh Parekh
When India attended independence Modi was not the ruler and neither was the $ to an INR 70, but then why could the, then rulers could not maintain the equilibrium of ₹ vs $… Just as they say, every Sun has a sunrise and a Sunset ….. so India's Sun set in the medivial period, but had a glorious and rich past, which was looted by innumerable nations, so now, Sun's of many are setting and India's Sun is gonna rise and shine damn bright … so bright indeed, that some will not able to see it's brightness…..
Time is coming at a very very fast pace to change the global order and rankings.
印度独立时，莫迪不是统治者，为什么当时的统治者无法维持卢比与美元的平衡呢？正如他们所说，太阳每天都会升起和落下…所以印度的太阳在中世纪就落下了，它有一个光辉灿烂的过去，但被无数国家掠夺，所以现在，许多国家的太阳正在落下，印度的太阳将会升起，闪耀着该死的光芒…它是如此明亮，以至于有些人看不到它有多亮…
改变全球秩序和排名的时刻正在以非常快的速度到来。
Leow Kam Soon
To maintain a ‘healthy’ growth rate, just use Rupee to calculate Indian GDP. If Rupee can hold firm at 1 Rupee to 1 dollar like in 1947, India is the biggest economy in the world now. With 135 Trillion economy (in INR or USD), surely no other country can come even close to mighty India.
为了保持“健康”的增长率，你只需用卢比来计算印度的GDP就可以了。如果卢比能像1947年那样保持在1卢比兑1美元的水平，印度现在就是世界上最大的经济体，拥有135万亿美元的GDP（以印度卢比或美元计），肯定没有哪个国家能比得上强大的印度。
Hank Barley, Mastered Coding, Then Traveling For Business (1982-present)
Been to both countries. China hands down. China has been growing double digits for decades, and although more matured and grew 7% - 9% in the last few, she rebounded from COVID in very good condition and will have one of the highest growth in history. India had a few years of low teen percentage growth, but they are mixed with low to no growth years too.
我去过这两个国家，很明显答案是中国。中国经济几十年来一直保持着两位数的增长，虽然在过去的几年里中国的经济发展更加成熟，增长率降到了7%-9%，但她从大流行中反弹的情况非常好，今年中国的经济增长率将是有史以来最高的速度之一。印度经济有过几年的高增长时期，但也夹杂着一些低增长或无增长的年份。
A better way to gauge is not just using statistics, but actual on the ground physical evidences. Take Delhi, the capital of India, and compare it to any of the 2nd or even 3rd level Chinese cities, and it is apparent that the Chinese had a more balance society and much better infrastructure. Unlike in India where one can see the rich and grinding poor, you will not see herds of homeless and people in rags begging food. Proper employment is such a problem in India, but in China more and more people are working their way to the middle and upper classes. Infrastructure? No comparison. You will never see Chinese crowded on top of trains, even during the annual mass journeys to home during Chinese New Year people can find safe transportation. Power is reliable in China, where brown outs are common in many cities of India, and even black outs. China has the largest car market, while the majority of Indians can’t even afford the much trumpeted $5000 Tata that can’t sustain above 50 MPH or the wheel bearings might burned up. I don’t want to upset Indian nationalists by continuing, and I think readers got the point.
一个更好的衡量方法不是使用统计数据，而是实际的实地考察。以印度首都德里为例，将其与中国的任何一个二线甚至三线城市相比较，你会发现中国人显然拥有一个更加平衡的社会和更好的基础设施。与到处都可以看到贫富差异的印度不同，在中国你不会看到成群结队的无家可归者和衣衫褴褛的人在乞讨食物。在印度，真正的就业是一个大问题，但在中国，越来越多的人以自己的方式进入中上层社会。基础设施？两者没有可比性，你永远不会看到中国人挤在火车上，即使是在每年春节回家的路上，人们也能找到安全的交通工具。在中国，电力是可靠的，而在印度的许多城市，停电是常事。中国拥有世界上最大的汽车市场，而大多数印度人甚至买不起他们大肆宣传的5000美元的，时速无法维持在50英里以上，否则车轮轴承可能会烧坏的塔塔轿车。我不想再继续下去，否则印度的民族主义者会感到不安，我想读者们明白这一点。
Anyway, I expect counter arguments that what I described is up till now and India will grow faster in the future. Will it, but I don’t see how. The Chinese economy is still growing on top of a much bigger base. Automation in its famed manufacturing and supply chain is one of the highest in the world, and higher rate to come. AI, ML, Big Data, 5G (6G is coming soon), and many many advanced techs are increasing implemented in cooperative manners, and their effects can be seen and felt. Meanwhile, India struggles with focus, social and ethnic issues, and oh those grinding poor masses.
不管怎样，我希望有人反驳我的描述并告诉我印度在未来会发展得更快。会的，但我不知道要怎么实现。中国经济在更大的基础上仍在增长，在其著名的制造业和供应链中，中国的自动化程度位列世界最高之一，而且发展速度更快。中国的AI、ML、大数据、5G（即将推出6G）以及许多先进技术正以合作的方式越来越多地实施，其效果有目共睹。与此同时，印度正在社会和种族问题以及那些可怜的穷人问题上挣扎。
