Which country will be the world's leading economic power in 2050 and why?
2050年，哪个国家将会成为世界领先经济大国
您的位置：首页 > 时事时事
2050年，哪个国家将会成为世界领先经济大国
Which country will be the world's leading economic power in 2050 and why?
2022-04-14
互联网
748
收藏
举报
译文简介
quora网友讨论2050年哪个国家将会成为世界领先经济大国呢？是一直飞速崛起的中国，还是后起之秀印度？让我们一探究竟！
正文翻译
评论翻译
Elin Zhang
The answer from many people is China. However, I think it should be India. The world is changing, things are not set in stone. 2050 is 30 years later, it’s a very long time for countries to redefine themselves.
许多人认为是中国。但是，我认为应该是印度。世界在不断变化，事情不是一成不变的。现在距2050年还有30年的时间，这足以让一个国家改头换新了。
It’s true that China is one of the countries with the fastest-growing economies currently, and our economies will be still increasing for the next years. but please remember that China's reform and opening-up were started 40 years ago, and our economy took off after China joined WTO in 2001, just 20 years ago.
目前，中国是经济发展最快的国家之一，这是毋庸置疑的，中国经济在未来几年依然会持续发展，但是请记住中国改革开放于40年前开展，而中国加入世贸组织经济得以腾飞，也用了仅仅20年。
Our Chinese people are proud of the infrastructure construction we already did. For example, the railway system:
中国人为我们基础设施创造的成就而感到骄傲。举个例子，铁路系统：
Or the skyscrapers in our big cities:
大城市里的摩天大厦：
However, if we go back to 20 years ago, then the railway stations were crowd like this:
然而，当我们回到20年前， 当时的火车站特别拥挤：
And the land was still undeveloped.
土地尚未得到开发。
So you can find out that 20 years is a very long time for the development of a country.
所以你能发现，20年对于一个国家的发展已经是非常长的时间了
Now let’s talk about India:
那我们现在谈谈印度：
The current situation of India is just like, or even better than the status in China 20 years before:
印度现在的情况很像中国，甚至比当年的中国更好：
The political environment:
政治环境：
India has its innate advantages and always has a good relationship with western countries. India, the USA, or the UK have similar democracy systems. English is one of the official languages of India.
印度有其内在优势，其与西方国家保持良好关系。印度，美国和英国有着相似的民主体系，并且英语是印度的官方语言。
20 years ago when WTO accepted China as its member, China had a good relationship with western countries. However, as you know, now the USA put China as its competitor in almost every field, then India has a very friend political environment, and more chance to get orders from western countries.
20年前中国加入世贸组织，那时候中国与西方国家维持着良好的关系。但是，你们知道，现在美国在几乎所有领域将中国视作竞争者，这么一来，印度就有一个有利的政治环境，有更多机会从西方国家获得订单。
The demographic structure
人口结构
Now India has a perfect population structure, that means India will be more competitive now and in the future for the labour cost.
目前印度有着完美的人口结构，这意味着印度在现在乃至未来的劳动力市场较有竞争力（劳动力成本较低）。
and the ageing problem will be surely a big challenge for China's economy.
人口老龄化问题依然是中国经济面临的巨大挑战
Science and Technology
科学技术
Western countries don’t set barriers for Indian students to learn knowledge. There are also many many Indian people working in the technology giants in western countries, like Sundar Pichai in Google. Chinese can not be allowed for these key positions because of the technology war between China and the USA.
西方国家不会给印度学生到本国学习设置障碍。有很多印度人在西方国家的科技巨头公司工作，包括在谷歌工作的桑达尔·皮查伊。中国人是不能担任这些重要职位的，因为中美的科技战连绵不休。
Of course currently many of these Indian top talents still work in western countries, if the India economy soars up, I think many of them will go back to India, just like many Chinese talents come back and work in China when they found they have more opportunities in China.
当然目前来说，很多印度顶尖人才依旧在西方国家工作，但如果印度经济迅猛发展的话，我认为他们中的很多人将回到印度，就像那些发现中国有更多机会之后重新回到祖国工作的中国人才那样。
Compare with the rest of the world, the GDP growth rate is much better. There is no doubt that India will be an economic engine for the world.
与世界其他国家相比，印度的国民生产率表现得更好。毫无疑问，印度将成为世界的经济引擎。
Ryan Wardell
India. Followed by China, followed by the US.
先是印度，然后是中国，然后是美国。
China has already overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy by purchasing power parity, and is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by nominal GDP sometime in the next few years.
中国在购买力平价已经超过美国成为世界第一大经济体，并预计将在几年后在名义人均生产总值方面超过美国成为世界第一大经济体。
But owing to a generation of the One Child Policy, China’s time in the sun will be fleeting. It’s rapidly aging and will suffer a similar fate as Japan, with fewer working age people to support a massive number of increasingly long-lived seniors.
但是由于实施计划生育政策，中国如日中天的人口红利时代会慢慢过去。中国正在快速进入老龄化，将会面临和日本一样的命运，工作适龄人口越来越少，会难以支撑越来越多的老龄人口。
It’s economy is also still very dependent on exports of manufactured goods and so far China appears unable to build any strong brands or compete on anything other than cost - which it won’t be able to do as incomes rise and with a smaller working population. There’s no guarantee China will escape the middle income trap.
中国经济依旧十分依赖出口制造商品，目前，中国看起来不能建立强大的自有品牌，也不能在成为以外的方面具有竞争力—这是因为人们工资越来越高，以及工作的人越来越少。中国难免进入中等收入陷阱。
India is different.
印度就不同了。
India’s fertility rate is above replacement, and yet it’s economy is still growing strongly. It will overtake China as the world’s most populous country around about the same time China overtakes then US as the world’s largest economy.
印度的出生人口死亡率无人能敌，但是该国经济还是发展凶猛。在中国超过美国成为世界第一经济体时，印度已经超过中国成为世界人口第一大国。
It’s population is much younger which means it won’t suffer the same top-heavy age pyramid that plagues China, Japan and the West.
印度总体人口要年轻地多，这意味着它的人口结构不是上多下少的金字塔型结构，而这种结构使得中国、日本和西方国家苦不堪言。
English is much more prent and widely spoken in India, and so it is easier for Indian firms to market products and services internationally as English is still the global lingua franca.
相比于中国，英语在印度更为普及，所以因为英语是全球通用语言，印度公司更容易在全球范围内进行产品服务的推广。
Aditya Jaya Lauson
As much as any loyal countryman wants his/her country to lead, there’s only one contender : China
每个人都希望自己的国家能够领先，但是这里只有一个优胜者：中国
For these reasons :
原因如下：
China has demonstrated the capability to innovate
中国有创新的能力
I’ve heard a saying here in Quora that says :
我在Quora上看到有人这么说：
The Google of India is Google, the Amazon of India is Amazon, the WhatsApp of India is WhatsApp. However, the Google of China is Baidu, the Amazon of China is Alibaba, the Whatsapp of China is Wechat
谷歌在印度就是谷歌，亚马逊在印度就是亚马逊，WhatsApp在印度就是WhatsApp。但是，中国的谷歌是百度，中国的亚马逊是阿里巴巴，中国的Whatsapp是微信。
Soon the Intel of China, the AMD of China, the Tesla of China, will make their way towards world stage.
很快也会有因特尔、AMD、特斯拉的中国版本，正在朝着世界水平迈进。
Yes, a part of that comes from forced technology transfer and reverse engineering. But those who say China can only copy, not invent, has somehow forgotten that the Chinese has always been great inventors, or probably they have never heard anything about “Four Great Inventions of China” .
当然，发展很大程度源于强制技术转让和逆向工程（是一种产品设计技术再现过程，即对一项目标产品进行逆向分析及研究，从而演绎并得出该产品的处理流程、组织结构、功能特性及技术规格等设计要素，以制作出功能相近，但又不完全一样的产品。）但是那些说中国只会抄袭不能创新的人，应该有些忘了中国有伟大的创造者，或许他们从没听过“四大发明”。
Truthfully, forced technology transfer and reverse engineering is not new. What’s new in China is, they can manufacture it at half the time, and a quarter of the cost.
当然，强制技术转让和逆向工程并不鲜见。那在中国什么是新的呢，中国人能用一般的时间，四分之一的价格制造同样的商品。
China has infrastructure like no other
中国制造无人能敌
In simplest analogy possible : 4,000 years ago someone owned 500 goats, well that’s as much goat milk he can sell to his village. Then someone invented the wheel, enabling him to sell 10x as much goat milk to 10 other villages.
一个简单的逻辑：4000年前一个人有500只羊，他就有足够的羊奶卖给村子里的人。然后这个人发明了轮子，他就能将牛奶卖到其他十个村子，卖的牛奶是原来的10倍。
If technology is the height of the sky scrapper, infrastructure is the foundation upon which wealth is build. I will let pictures speak for themselves.
如果科技决定了摩天大厦的高度，那么基础设施就是地基，财富由此建立。我将用图片来说明。
55 kilometers sea crossing bridge
55千米的跨海大桥
Due to treacherous mountainous terrain, as of 2019, China build 4,000+ km of expressway like this just in Gansu province so Chinese can drive 120km/h on it. 350km/h high speed railway will be build after that.
因为绵延崎岖的山地丘陵，2019年，中国仅在甘肃省就修建了4000多公里，司机能以120公里每小时的速度行驶。除此之外，将会建起最高时速350公里的高速公路。
China has lifted poverty like no other
中国脱贫成果令人惊叹
No country has lifted half poverty in less than 50 years. Except… China, who lift 88% people out of poverty from 1981… To 0.7% in 2015.
没有国家能在短短50年的时间里让半数人脱贫。除了……中国，中国自1981年自来，已经让88%的人口脱贫……2015年贫困人口只有0.7%（译者注：目前，中国贫困人口以全部脱贫。）
Growth = Consumption + Exports - Imports + Government Spending
经济发展=消费＋出口-进口＋政府开支
Any country that takes the lead must have the power to redistribute its wealth to citizens, increasing their welfare, and resulting in higher consumption. Poverty is a trap, and is severely hard to escape from. So in most cases, the responsibility relies on the government. Poverty is a very chronic sign of a country’s lack of ability or interest to increase consumption.
任何当领头羊的国家都必须有能力对国民财富进行再分配，增加人民福祉，促进更高消费。贫穷是个陷阱，很难摆脱。所以绝大多数情况，责任落在了政府的身上。贫穷是一个国家缺少提升消费水平能力和兴趣的慢性标志。
原文地址：https://www.quora.com/Which-country-will-be-the-worlds-leading-economic-power-in-2050-and-why
The answer from many people is China. However, I think it should be India. The world is changing, things are not set in stone. 2050 is 30 years later, it’s a very long time for countries to redefine themselves.
许多人认为是中国。但是，我认为应该是印度。世界在不断变化，事情不是一成不变的。现在距2050年还有30年的时间，这足以让一个国家改头换新了。
It’s true that China is one of the countries with the fastest-growing economies currently, and our economies will be still increasing for the next years. but please remember that China's reform and opening-up were started 40 years ago, and our economy took off after China joined WTO in 2001, just 20 years ago.
目前，中国是经济发展最快的国家之一，这是毋庸置疑的，中国经济在未来几年依然会持续发展，但是请记住中国改革开放于40年前开展，而中国加入世贸组织经济得以腾飞，也用了仅仅20年。
Our Chinese people are proud of the infrastructure construction we already did. For example, the railway system:
中国人为我们基础设施创造的成就而感到骄傲。举个例子，铁路系统：
Or the skyscrapers in our big cities:
大城市里的摩天大厦：
However, if we go back to 20 years ago, then the railway stations were crowd like this:
然而，当我们回到20年前， 当时的火车站特别拥挤：
And the land was still undeveloped.
土地尚未得到开发。
So you can find out that 20 years is a very long time for the development of a country.
所以你能发现，20年对于一个国家的发展已经是非常长的时间了
Now let’s talk about India:
那我们现在谈谈印度：
The current situation of India is just like, or even better than the status in China 20 years before:
印度现在的情况很像中国，甚至比当年的中国更好：
The political environment:
政治环境：
India has its innate advantages and always has a good relationship with western countries. India, the USA, or the UK have similar democracy systems. English is one of the official languages of India.
印度有其内在优势，其与西方国家保持良好关系。印度，美国和英国有着相似的民主体系，并且英语是印度的官方语言。
20 years ago when WTO accepted China as its member, China had a good relationship with western countries. However, as you know, now the USA put China as its competitor in almost every field, then India has a very friend political environment, and more chance to get orders from western countries.
20年前中国加入世贸组织，那时候中国与西方国家维持着良好的关系。但是，你们知道，现在美国在几乎所有领域将中国视作竞争者，这么一来，印度就有一个有利的政治环境，有更多机会从西方国家获得订单。
The demographic structure
人口结构
Now India has a perfect population structure, that means India will be more competitive now and in the future for the labour cost.
目前印度有着完美的人口结构，这意味着印度在现在乃至未来的劳动力市场较有竞争力（劳动力成本较低）。
and the ageing problem will be surely a big challenge for China's economy.
人口老龄化问题依然是中国经济面临的巨大挑战
Science and Technology
科学技术
Western countries don’t set barriers for Indian students to learn knowledge. There are also many many Indian people working in the technology giants in western countries, like Sundar Pichai in Google. Chinese can not be allowed for these key positions because of the technology war between China and the USA.
西方国家不会给印度学生到本国学习设置障碍。有很多印度人在西方国家的科技巨头公司工作，包括在谷歌工作的桑达尔·皮查伊。中国人是不能担任这些重要职位的，因为中美的科技战连绵不休。
Of course currently many of these Indian top talents still work in western countries, if the India economy soars up, I think many of them will go back to India, just like many Chinese talents come back and work in China when they found they have more opportunities in China.
当然目前来说，很多印度顶尖人才依旧在西方国家工作，但如果印度经济迅猛发展的话，我认为他们中的很多人将回到印度，就像那些发现中国有更多机会之后重新回到祖国工作的中国人才那样。
Compare with the rest of the world, the GDP growth rate is much better. There is no doubt that India will be an economic engine for the world.
与世界其他国家相比，印度的国民生产率表现得更好。毫无疑问，印度将成为世界的经济引擎。
Ryan Wardell
India. Followed by China, followed by the US.
先是印度，然后是中国，然后是美国。
China has already overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy by purchasing power parity, and is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by nominal GDP sometime in the next few years.
中国在购买力平价已经超过美国成为世界第一大经济体，并预计将在几年后在名义人均生产总值方面超过美国成为世界第一大经济体。
But owing to a generation of the One Child Policy, China’s time in the sun will be fleeting. It’s rapidly aging and will suffer a similar fate as Japan, with fewer working age people to support a massive number of increasingly long-lived seniors.
但是由于实施计划生育政策，中国如日中天的人口红利时代会慢慢过去。中国正在快速进入老龄化，将会面临和日本一样的命运，工作适龄人口越来越少，会难以支撑越来越多的老龄人口。
It’s economy is also still very dependent on exports of manufactured goods and so far China appears unable to build any strong brands or compete on anything other than cost - which it won’t be able to do as incomes rise and with a smaller working population. There’s no guarantee China will escape the middle income trap.
中国经济依旧十分依赖出口制造商品，目前，中国看起来不能建立强大的自有品牌，也不能在成为以外的方面具有竞争力—这是因为人们工资越来越高，以及工作的人越来越少。中国难免进入中等收入陷阱。
India is different.
印度就不同了。
India’s fertility rate is above replacement, and yet it’s economy is still growing strongly. It will overtake China as the world’s most populous country around about the same time China overtakes then US as the world’s largest economy.
印度的出生人口死亡率无人能敌，但是该国经济还是发展凶猛。在中国超过美国成为世界第一经济体时，印度已经超过中国成为世界人口第一大国。
It’s population is much younger which means it won’t suffer the same top-heavy age pyramid that plagues China, Japan and the West.
印度总体人口要年轻地多，这意味着它的人口结构不是上多下少的金字塔型结构，而这种结构使得中国、日本和西方国家苦不堪言。
English is much more prent and widely spoken in India, and so it is easier for Indian firms to market products and services internationally as English is still the global lingua franca.
相比于中国，英语在印度更为普及，所以因为英语是全球通用语言，印度公司更容易在全球范围内进行产品服务的推广。
Aditya Jaya Lauson
As much as any loyal countryman wants his/her country to lead, there’s only one contender : China
每个人都希望自己的国家能够领先，但是这里只有一个优胜者：中国
For these reasons :
原因如下：
China has demonstrated the capability to innovate
中国有创新的能力
I’ve heard a saying here in Quora that says :
我在Quora上看到有人这么说：
The Google of India is Google, the Amazon of India is Amazon, the WhatsApp of India is WhatsApp. However, the Google of China is Baidu, the Amazon of China is Alibaba, the Whatsapp of China is Wechat
谷歌在印度就是谷歌，亚马逊在印度就是亚马逊，WhatsApp在印度就是WhatsApp。但是，中国的谷歌是百度，中国的亚马逊是阿里巴巴，中国的Whatsapp是微信。
Soon the Intel of China, the AMD of China, the Tesla of China, will make their way towards world stage.
很快也会有因特尔、AMD、特斯拉的中国版本，正在朝着世界水平迈进。
Yes, a part of that comes from forced technology transfer and reverse engineering. But those who say China can only copy, not invent, has somehow forgotten that the Chinese has always been great inventors, or probably they have never heard anything about “Four Great Inventions of China” .
当然，发展很大程度源于强制技术转让和逆向工程（是一种产品设计技术再现过程，即对一项目标产品进行逆向分析及研究，从而演绎并得出该产品的处理流程、组织结构、功能特性及技术规格等设计要素，以制作出功能相近，但又不完全一样的产品。）但是那些说中国只会抄袭不能创新的人，应该有些忘了中国有伟大的创造者，或许他们从没听过“四大发明”。
Truthfully, forced technology transfer and reverse engineering is not new. What’s new in China is, they can manufacture it at half the time, and a quarter of the cost.
当然，强制技术转让和逆向工程并不鲜见。那在中国什么是新的呢，中国人能用一般的时间，四分之一的价格制造同样的商品。
China has infrastructure like no other
中国制造无人能敌
In simplest analogy possible : 4,000 years ago someone owned 500 goats, well that’s as much goat milk he can sell to his village. Then someone invented the wheel, enabling him to sell 10x as much goat milk to 10 other villages.
一个简单的逻辑：4000年前一个人有500只羊，他就有足够的羊奶卖给村子里的人。然后这个人发明了轮子，他就能将牛奶卖到其他十个村子，卖的牛奶是原来的10倍。
If technology is the height of the sky scrapper, infrastructure is the foundation upon which wealth is build. I will let pictures speak for themselves.
如果科技决定了摩天大厦的高度，那么基础设施就是地基，财富由此建立。我将用图片来说明。
55 kilometers sea crossing bridge
55千米的跨海大桥
Due to treacherous mountainous terrain, as of 2019, China build 4,000+ km of expressway like this just in Gansu province so Chinese can drive 120km/h on it. 350km/h high speed railway will be build after that.
因为绵延崎岖的山地丘陵，2019年，中国仅在甘肃省就修建了4000多公里，司机能以120公里每小时的速度行驶。除此之外，将会建起最高时速350公里的高速公路。
China has lifted poverty like no other
中国脱贫成果令人惊叹
No country has lifted half poverty in less than 50 years. Except… China, who lift 88% people out of poverty from 1981… To 0.7% in 2015.
没有国家能在短短50年的时间里让半数人脱贫。除了……中国，中国自1981年自来，已经让88%的人口脱贫……2015年贫困人口只有0.7%（译者注：目前，中国贫困人口以全部脱贫。）
Growth = Consumption + Exports - Imports + Government Spending
经济发展=消费＋出口-进口＋政府开支
Any country that takes the lead must have the power to redistribute its wealth to citizens, increasing their welfare, and resulting in higher consumption. Poverty is a trap, and is severely hard to escape from. So in most cases, the responsibility relies on the government. Poverty is a very chronic sign of a country’s lack of ability or interest to increase consumption.
任何当领头羊的国家都必须有能力对国民财富进行再分配，增加人民福祉，促进更高消费。贫穷是个陷阱，很难摆脱。所以绝大多数情况，责任落在了政府的身上。贫穷是一个国家缺少提升消费水平能力和兴趣的慢性标志。
很赞哦！ ()
