如果当初南越赢了，越南今天是不是会更加繁荣发达？

Would Vietnam be more prosperous today if South Vietnam won?

如果当初南越赢了，越南今天是不是会更加繁荣发达？

Thang Nguyen
I strongly believe South Vietnam under President Ngo Dinh Diem would be more successful and advanced. Why? When I was young, I was taught that Diem was evil, the South was puppet and communism was good. However, as I went home, my family who are Southerners always taught me about the truth, about who we were and the propaganda in school was not true. Now as I live in the US, and have read books and aslo talked to people who lived through the Vietnam War, and also those who were worked under President Diem. I’ve developed and seen a new picture.

我坚信，在吴庭艳总统的领导下，南越会更加成功、更加先进。为什么？当我年轻的时候，我总被教导说吴庭艳是邪恶的，南方政府是傀儡。然而，当我回家的时候，我的南方人家人总是告诉我真相，我们到底是谁，学校的宣传是不是真的。现在，因为我住在美国，读过了相关的书，也和经历过越南战争的人交谈过，还和那些在吴庭艳总统手下工作的人交谈过。我渐渐看到了一个新的图景。

 
President Diem was Catholic, but he was also a Confucianistic person who had a strong nationalism that even Ho Chi Minh, his arch-opponent knew it. President Diem was humble and dedicated his life for South Vietnam. With a strong centralized leadership of President Diem rather than the divided leadership by the greedy generals who only knew to fight among themselves, South Vietnam would take strong stance against the North. The buddhists who protested President Diem didn’t know that Buddhism in Vietnam during that time was infiltrated by communists, and by calling President Diem dictator, they were so ignorant because at least under President Diem’s era, they had right to protest, not like how Vietnam now.Sadly, as President Diem did not allow the US to send troops, and as the Americans saw Diem only as a pawn on their chessboard, they killed him and replaced him with more docile and aslo less patriotic generals who only thought about themselves.

吴庭艳总统是天主教徒，但他也是一个儒家思想的人，他有一种强烈的民族主义，就连他的主要对手胡志明也知道这一点。吴庭艳总统很谦虚，为南越奉献了自己的生命。有了吴庭艳总统强有力的集中领导，取代贪婪军阀们的分裂领导（他们只知道自己之间的斗争），南越将对北越采取强硬立场。抗议吴庭艳总统的佛教徒，并不知道当时越南的佛教已经被越共渗透，他们称吴庭艳总统为独裁者，他们如此无知，因为至少在吴庭艳总统的时代，他们有权抗议，而不是像现在的越南那样。可悲的是，吴庭艳总统不允许美国出兵，由于美国人认为吴庭艳只是他们棋盘上的一个棋子，所以他们杀了他，用更温顺和不那么爱国的将军取代了他，他们只考虑自己的利益。

 
Today, Vietnam is developing fast. I agree and I am proud of our capitalistic innovative and hardworking countrymen and women. However, we are still exploited by the corrupted officials who only care about themselves and families. I wish another leader like President Diem would be back, who is strong, extremely nationalistic, and willing to die for what he believes.

今天，越南发展迅速。我同意，我为我们的资本主义的创新和勤劳的同胞们感到骄傲。然而，我们仍然在被只关心自己和家庭的腐败官员们所利用。我希望像吴庭艳总统这样的另一位领导人会回来，他是强大的，极端民族主义的，愿意为他的信仰而死。

 
Jonathan Buttall
Of course not!
And there was never a legal “South Vietnam”, only a failed puppet government created by the French and Americans.
Vietnam today is becoming very prosperous because they won the war and got rid of Japan, France and the US by winning Wars. I traveled thru the country last year and was amazed at what I saw. Even their poor areas are self-sufficient.

当然不会! 而且从来没有合法的“南越”政权，只有法国和美国创造的失败傀儡政府。今天的越南变得非常繁荣，因为他们赢得了战争，并通过赢得战争摆脱了日本、法国和美国。去年我走遍了这个国家，对我所看到的感到惊讶。即使他们的贫困地区也能自给自足。

 
Kevin Dam
Of course. Economically a united Vietnam under anti-communist leadership would be somewhere between Thailand and South Korea, that is to say, much more prosperous than today''s Vietnam. Let’s not forget that South Vietnam started out with a GDP per capita 30% higher than Thailand’s and its national IQ is 3 points higher as well. It had highly competent administrators and bureaucrats trained in France and the US. It wouldn''t have wasted 35 years (in North Vietnam) and 15 years (in South Vietnam) pursuing the failed Soviet economic model. Moreover, as a bastion against communism, it would''ve enjoyed massive US technical and economic assistance instead of suffering grievously under US trade embargo. South Vietnam chose US friendship, US technologies and investment, access to US markets, etc. North Vietnam chose US bombs, which turned out to be not a very smart choice. As Senator John McCain said, the wrong guys won the Vietnam War
Today’s Vietnam is one of the poorest, most corrupt, most oppressive and polluted countries in the world…

当然会了。在经济上，一个在反政权领导下统一的越南，发达程度将介于泰国和韩国之间，也就是说，将会比今天的越南繁荣得多。让我们不要忘记，南越一开始的人均GDP比泰国高30%，其国民智商也高出3点。它拥有在法国和美国接受培训的高度胜任的管理人员和官僚。它不会让北越浪费35年时间，让南越15年时间追求失败的苏联经济模式。此外，作为反对越共的堡垒，它将获得美国大量的技术和经济援助，而不是在美国贸易禁运下遭受痛苦。南越选择了美国的友谊，美国的技术和投资，进入了美国市场等。北越选择了美国的炸弹，结果证明这不是一个非常明智的选择。正如参议员约翰·麦凯恩所说，错误的人赢得了越南战争。因此今天的越南是世界上最贫穷，最腐败，最压迫和污染的国家之一…

 
Jeffrey Young
I would venture a maybe with a, likely, assuming a united Vietnam under the south followed a similar path of South Korea.
I estimate there would still be a divide between the very rich and the very poor. Yet South Korea was able to close this gap significantly even if it didn''t eliminate it totally. The possibilities are there.
The unknown factor is how much Vietnam would have been successful in minimizing corruption and nepotism. It''s unrealistic to ask for its complete elimination, human nature being what it is and the long history of ingrained, cultural corruption in East Asia and Southeast Asia. It would be necessary to greatly reduce corruption to the point where it doesn''t undermine economic growth and prosperity. This is something the Central American and South American nations have never been able to accomplish, to their great detriment, despite an abundance of natural resources.

我会冒险提出一个可能，假设一个统一的越南，在南方的统治下走上了韩国的类似道路。我估计在非常富有的人和非常贫穷的人之间，仍然会有一道鸿沟。然而，韩国能够显著缩小这一差距，即使它没有完全消除它。可能性是存在的。未知的因素是，越南在尽量减少腐败和裙带关系方面取得了多大的成功。要求彻底消除它是不现实的，人性就是这样，东亚和东南亚长期存在根深蒂固的腐败文化。有必要将腐败大大减少到，不损害经济增长和繁荣的程度。尽管有着丰富的自然资源，但中美洲和南美国家从未能够做到这一点，这对他们造成了极大的损害。

 
Taurant Nguyen
If American administration kept supporting this man instead of forcing South Vietnamese Generals overthew him, the South must be stronger and prosperous. Of course, this man opposed the policy of bringing American troops into South Vietnam.American troops came into South Vietnam invited more troubles for South Vietnam instead of helping the one in need. The South got the most bombing, the South got the most attacks, the South got the most sufferings. The existence of American troops helped the North''s propaganda and helped the North receiving more advance weapons to fight against American troops and fight against South Vietnam defense forces. More refugees moved into the cities, more homeless families and more homeless children around South Vietnam. More inflations and more social disturbances for South Vietnam society. If American administration under Kennedy didn''t directly force the removal of President Ngô đình Diệm, Vietnam may be still divided like North and South Korea. It was unbelievable Vietnam would be united like East and West Germany.

如果美国政府继续支持吴庭艳，而不是强迫南越将军凌驾于他之上，南方肯定会变得更强大和繁荣。当然，这个人反对美国军队进入南越的政策，美国军队进入南越，给南越带来更多的麻烦，而没有帮到有需要的人。南越受到的轰炸最多，南越受到的袭击最多，南越遭受的痛苦最大。美国军队的存在，帮助了朝鲜的宣传，并帮助朝鲜获得了更多的先进武器，以对抗美国军队和越南南部的防御力量。更多的难民进入城市，更多的无家可归的家庭和更多的无家可归的儿童聚集在南越周围。对南越社会来说，更多的通货膨胀和更多的社会动荡。如果肯尼迪领导下的美国政府，没有直接迫使总统吴庭艳下台，越南可能仍会像朝鲜和韩国一样分裂。但令人难以置信的是，越南最终将会像东德和西德一样统一。

 
Le Tat Dat
I don''t know. There is no if in history. There is lot of thing to do to become Korea, and if anyone look at the end of Vietnam war, the army of 1 million fled from the army of 300,000 and think South Vietnam certainly would become South Korean is laughable. They can''t even to protect their own country. Well, i won''t say it is impossible to become Korea but in another universe, maybe.

我不知道。历史上没有如果。要成为韩国有很多事情要做，如果有人看到越南战争结束时，一百万的军队有三十万人从军中逃走，还认为南越肯定会成为韩国的话，这是很可笑的。他们甚至不能保护自己的国家。嗯，我不会说它是不可能成为韩国，但在另一个宇宙里，也许。

 
Văn Hải Khổng
In history ,no foreign henchman government exists in Vietnam.
Being a henchman for the United States does not mean that you will be automatically rich..Look at the Philippines to know.

在历史上，越南没有外国的傀儡政府。成为美国的亲信并不意味着你会自动变得富有……看看菲律宾就知道了。
 
Churongdat
Well…
If there were any clues that they were able to win the war and making Vietnam more prosperous, then the United States would not have abandoned them.

好吧。如果有任何迹象表明，他们能够赢得战争，使越南更加繁荣的话，那么美国当初就不会放弃他们了。