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世界贸易:印度占1.5%,中国占28%,到2040年中国将占40%,到时候印度还剩什么?

World Trade: Indian Share 1.5%, China 28%, China to take it to 40% by 2040, What''s left for India?
2022-04-24 互联网 1005 收藏 举报
译文简介
别跟中国比了,先看看基本面吧。如果我们的制度对企业家来说如此糟糕,如果我们只能培育出安巴尼和阿达尼,你还指望我们与中国竞争什么呢?
正文翻译

别跟中国比了,先看看基本面吧。
如果我们的制度对企业家来说如此糟糕,如果我们只能培育出安巴尼和阿达尼,你还指望我们与中国竞争什么呢?
 
评论翻译
Shashank
, Software engineer (INFJ),Lived in Pune, Maharashtra, India
Stop comparing with China look at first fundamentals.
IF our system is so bad for entrepreneurs and only produce ambani and Adani, what do you expect us to compete with China.
There is no point blaming Politicians when indian voters are choosing with consistency over last 60 yrs bad people who have zero vision to create more jobs in India.
All the tax payers money is looted by a 4000–5000 politicians in every area of country and they become rich.
While regular common men in India is struggling from 1960s, its the same story.

别跟中国比了,先看看基本面吧。
如果我们的制度对企业家来说如此糟糕,如果我们只能培育出安巴尼和阿达尼,你还指望我们与中国竞争什么呢?
当印度选民在过去60年中始终如一地做出选择时,责怪政客是毫无意义的,因为坏人对在印度创造更多就业机会没有任何想法。
所有纳税人的钱都被全国各地4000-5000名政客洗劫一空,他们发财了。
虽然印度普通百姓从上世纪60年代起就在苦苦挣扎,但情况一直如此。

There is nothing left for India, We have bad leaders who have zero interest in welfare of people and only interested in make money before they lose power.
Politics is game of money not welfare for leaders, Imagine this every 5 yrs, we are getting corrupt leaders and this way how many times, Indian tax payer money is looted and every generation suffers.

印度什么都没有,我们只有坏的领导人,他们对人民的福利没有兴趣,只对在失去权力之前赚钱感兴趣。
政治只是金钱的游戏,想象一下每5年,我们就会有腐败的领导人,反复无数次,印度纳税人的钱被洗劫一空,每一代人都在受苦。

In China middle class population is 4–5 times of what Indian middle class is and its the people who are prospering, China makes everything from A-Z of products needed in world and China makes products which sells in world.
What does India makes which sells in world???????? Ask yourself frankly, the keyboard and even smartphone from which you are viewing is somewhere made in China.

而在中国,中产阶级的人口是印度中产阶级的4-5倍,他们很富裕,中国生产世界所需的各种产品,中国生产的产品销往世界。
有什么印度制造的产品在世界上销售的????????坦率地问问自己,你会发现你正在观看这个评论的键盘甚至智能手机都是中国制造的。

Niranjan Mehta
, Truth Seeker,Lived in Universe
The moment the USA already started shifting their manufacturing base from china to or replace from chains import. Shifting within 3 years to South Korea, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines, Malaysian Indonesia, and Mexico.
China will go back to the 1970s economy.

现在美国已经开始将其制造基地从中国转移出去,美国将在三年内把其在中国的制造基地转移到韩国、越南、印度、孟加拉国、巴基斯坦、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和墨西哥。
中国经济将回到上世纪70年代。

Sure right away India cannot 30% but good chance above 15%
china made the biggest mistake by trying to Beat west in the last 5 years in every field.
This kind of control and game is NOT new to the USA in 1950–65 was japan, 1960–1980 was Korea after 1980 Korea only manufacture big tkts item and small throw away stuff moved to china.

当然,印度在世界贸易中所占的份额不可能达到30%,但很有可能会超过15%。
在过去的5年里,中国在各个领域都试图击败西方,这是他们犯下的最大的错误。
这种控制和游戏对美国来说并不新鲜,1950-65年是日本,1960-1980年是韩国。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam
, Lawyer,Lives in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
Paul Varghese
, M.Com International Business & Financial Markets, Indira Gandhi National Open University
Thats because we think we are too good for Low End Manufacture or Medium End Manufacture.
We only want to make Advanced Tech, Automobiles, Smartphones, Robots etc.
Chinas wages are rising. With more money, the people are getting more wages. All Low End Manufacture is shifting out of China in Billions and going to Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.

那是因为我们认为我们不太适合做低端制造业或中端制造业。
我们只想搞先进的技术,比如汽车,智能手机,机器人等。
中国的工资正在上涨。有了更多的钱,人们就能得到更多的工资。所有低端制造业正以数十亿美元的规模从中国转移到孟加拉国、印度尼西亚、斯里兰卡和越南。

Why not India?
Because we think its demeaning!!!
A $ 150 Million Automobile Factory takes 4 years and demands a market share that we simply dont have.
Fifty $ 3 Million small foundries manufacturing Pens, Pencils, Geometry Instruments, Cheap Toys and Jeans take 8 months to set up and can easily command a big market share. The Same $150 Million and employment for 3000 People.
Bangladesh happily decided to go into this and have got a Skilled Labor Force ready.

为什么不是印度呢?
因为我们认为做这种事情对我们来说是一种贬低!!!
建设一个价值1.5亿美元的汽车工厂需要4年的时间,而且需要一个我们根本没有的市场。
而建设500家价值300万美元的生产钢笔、铅笔、几何仪器、廉价玩具和牛仔裤的小型工厂只需要8个月的时间,而且很容易就能占据很大的市场份额。同样的1.5亿美元的投资,同样可以带来3000个的就业机会。
孟加拉国高兴地决定进入这一领域,并准备好了一支熟练的劳动力队伍。

Problem is India is not a Big Market.Our Consumer Potential is $10 Trillion but our Actual Consumer Spending is only $ 1.72 Trillion.
The Bigger Factories will only come if we can promise them markets. Tesla is hesitating so much because they know he has a very low market share for even his basic models in India.
But Toys, Pencils, Raincoats have ready market.
And thats an excellent way to reduce unemployment.

问题在于印度不是一个大的消费市场,我们的消费潜力有10万亿美元,但实际消费只有1.72万亿美元。
大型工厂只有在我们能向他们保证有市场的情况下才会来印度。特斯拉之所以犹豫不决,是因为他们知道,即使是他们的基本车型,在印度也没什么市场。
但玩具、铅笔、雨衣都有现成的市场。
这是一个减少失业的很好的方法。

At the moment over 8000 such factories can be built in India and create 80 Lakh Jobs.
A Partner wants Rs. 1.5 Crore finance to make wooden furniture with Chinese and Malay Imported Wood - Banks are not Interested. They want Lots of Collateral
Someone wants a $300 Million investment with China on some major technology - Banks are ready though the eventual product is so third rate that all future deals are scrapped.
So nothing left but Gas and Overvalued Startups

目前,印度可以建造8000多家这样的工厂,创造8000万个就业机会。
一家合作伙伴希望获得150万卢比的融资,用从中国和马来西亚进口的木材制造木制家具——但银行对此不感兴趣,他们需要很多抵押品才肯贷款。
有人希望中国在一些主要的技术上投资3亿美元,银行把钱都准备好了,可是最终的产品是三流的,以至于所有未来的交易都被取消了。
所以印度只剩下会空谈和估值过高的初创公司。

Jiangjunling
A few years ago, I was talking about Indian manufacturing with some Chinese businessmen who have investments in India!
There are several things that they say are holding back India's manufacturing sector,
First, integrity of Indian partners, especially non-compliance with contracts!
Second, the inefficiency of the Indian government and Indian workers,
Third, India's labor laws,
Fourth, India's trade unxs,
Fifth, pervasive corruption,
Last but not least, India's poor infrastructure!

几年前,我和一些在印度投资的华商讨论过印度的制造业!
他们说有几件事阻碍了印度制造业的发展,
首先,印度合作伙伴的诚信,尤其是不遵守合同!
其次,印度政府和印度工人的效率低下,
第三,印度的劳动法,
第四,印度工会,
第五,腐败无处不在,
最后但并非最不重要的是,印度基础设施太差了!

Sameer M
That's true. Most of it could be avoided if we reduce bureaucratic influence. But it doesn't happen because, eventually the bureaucrats make these laws and why would they want to reduce their own influence?

确实如此,如果我们减少官僚主义的影响,以上大部分不利因素都可以避免。但这不会发生的,因为最终是官僚们制定了这些法律,为什么他们要降低自己的影响力?

Prashant
I agree with you but it sounds funny for some one from communist china complaining about trade unxs and labor laws. ���

我同意你的观点,但一些来自中国的人抱怨工会和劳动法,这听起来很有趣。���

Mukesh Reddy
Communist is just a name, if u actually read about Chinese economy or system, u will know it's nothing even remotely close to communism, intact we can say india is more communist than china can ever be!

共产主义只是一个名字罢了,如果你真的了解中国的经济或制度,你就会明白它与共产主义没有什么关系,我们甚至可以说印度比中国更共产主义!

Jiangjunling
China's current system is socialism with Chinese characteristics.
The most fundamental difference between socialism with Chinese characteristics and traditional capitalism is that, under the Chinese system, there is a more powerful force than capital, that is the Communist Party of China!
Even if Alibaba Group is such a powerful transnational capital group, if the Chinese government asks him to shut up, Ma Yun will consciously disappear from people's vision!
In China, capital and capitalists can only develop within the frxwork allowed by the government, which has absolute authority!

中国现行的制度是中国特色社会主义。
中国特色社会主义与传统资本主义最根本的区别是,在中国体制下,有比资本更强大的力量,那就是中国共产党!
即使阿里巴巴这样如此强大的跨国资本集团,如果中国政府要求他闭嘴,马云也会自觉地从人们的视野中消失!
在中国,资本和资本家只能在政府允许的框架内发展,政府拥有绝对的权威!

Siddharth Sharma
It has nothing to do with demeaning. Cost of business(including corruption) is too high and bureacracy/politicians don’t have enough incentives to create jobs. They are busy passing job destroying idiotic reservations instead.

产业选择与贬低无关。在印度做生意的成本(包括腐败)太高,政府/政治家没有足够的激励来创造就业机会,他们正忙着通过工作破坏那些愚蠢的保留制。

Akshat
I feel bad for my fellow Indians.Sure we are no saint but we dont deserve this bad leadership.Why cant these bigots at the helm of throne can set aside all greed for just 10 years and make india atleast a uper-middle economy.
I have lived in 8 states and trust me people are made to compromise even the most basic things wherever i went.We deserve atleast affordable education,healthcare,employable opportunities.

我为我的印度同胞感到难过。虽然我们不是圣人,但这种糟糕的领导不是我们应得的。为什么这些执掌大位的偏执者们不能在短短10年内抛开一切贪婪,让印度至少成为一个中等偏上的经济体呢。
我在8个邦生活过,相信我,无论我走到哪里,人们都会妥协,即使是最基本的东西。我们至少应该得到负担得起的教育、医疗和就业机会。

People,ask the right questions!
Stop doing bhakt vs librandu and side away with all biases. Your only aim should be to criticize the govt of india,These politicians needed to be treated like servants not kings.
Would anyone listen me?I dont think so.India,carry onwith all this shit.

各位,请提出正确的问题!
你的唯一目的应该是批评印度政府,这些政客应该被当作仆人而不是国王对待。
有人会听我的吗?我不这么认为,印度的故事还会继续。

Dinesh Jain
Indian govt doesn't want businessmen to do business. Indian textile sector is worst hit we are forced to pay higher amount for the 25/30 year old machines where Bangladeshis and Pakistanis get for very less price.

印度政府不希望商人在印度做生意。印度的纺织业受到的打击最严重,我们被迫为那些已经有25/30 年的旧机器支付了更高的价格,而孟加拉国人和巴基斯坦人则以非常低的价格获得它们。

Hua Liu
In fact, I can describe this problem in one sentence
China's industrial upgrading is robbing the old western countries, especially the middle class jobs in the United States... So... China is hated by them.

事实上,我可以用一句话来描述这个问题。
中国的产业升级正在抢夺西方老牌国家,尤其是美国中产阶级的工作岗位.....所以他们憎恨中国。

This was announced a few years ago... 2025 plan and 2035 plan, which is no secret.
In Guangdong, they have a saying to describe the two plans.
Let's empty the cage. We want a new bird.

中国几年前发布了中国制造2025年计划和2035年计划...这不是秘密。
在广东,他们有一句话来形容这两个计划。
我们把笼子清空,我们想要一只新鸟(腾笼换鸟)。

Where is the original bird going? There are many factors to decide... This answer has been mentioned in another Chinese comment
In my opinion, the most important thing is a stable and honest social environment and an no unstable government. As for technology and capital, the bird will bring it.

原来的鸟去哪儿了?决定的因素很多……
在我看来,发展制造业最重要的是一个稳定廉洁的社会环境,至于技术和资本,鸟儿会带来的。

Rayan Haque
If china takes it to 40% then they will really become the centre of the world(ie. the middle kingdom)

如果中国把它提高到40%,那么他们将真正成为世界的中心(即中央王国)。
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