华盛顿推动反俄全球共识的努力失败了
The Biden administration clearly overestimated the extent of international outrage at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
拜登政府显然高估了国际社会对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的愤怒程度。
Biden administration officials treat Russia as an international pariah and push the global community to unite behind Washington’s leadership to compel the Kremlin to withdraw its forces from Ukraine. The administration’s strategy has been just partially successful. Criticisms of Russia’s actions are relatively easy to find among foreign leaders, but when it comes to outright condemnations—much less endorsements of NATO’s position that the war was unprovoked and entirely Moscow’s fault—governments around the world demur.
拜登政府官员将俄罗斯视为国际贱民，并推动全球社会团结在华盛顿的领导之下，迫使克里姆林宫从乌克兰撤军。政府的战略只是取得了部分成功。对俄罗斯行动的批评在外国领导人中相对容易找到，但当涉及到直接谴责时，更不用说赞同北约的立场——即战争是无端的，完全是莫斯科的错——世界各国政府都不愿意。
They are even less inclined to sign on to the U.S.-led campaign to impose extraordinarily severe sanctions on Russia. Indeed, outside of NATO and the string-of-pearls U.S. bilateral security alliances in East Asia, the support for sanctions is notable for its absence. That was true even during the first month of the war, and it has become even more pronounced since then.
他们更不愿意签署以美国为首的对俄罗斯实施特别严厉制裁的运动。事实上，在北约和美国在东亚的双边安全联盟之外，对制裁的支持是明显缺乏的。即使在战争的第一个月也是如此，此后就更加明显了。
Hudson Institute scholar Walter Russell Mead provides an apt summary of Washington’s lack of success in broadening the anti-Russia coalition beyond the network of traditional U.S. allies. “The West has never been more closely aligned. It has also rarely been more alone. Allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization plus Australia and Japan are united in revulsion against Vladimir Putin’s war and are cooperating with the most sweeping sanctions since World War II. The rest of the world, not so much.”
哈德逊研究所学者沃尔特·拉塞尔·米德对华盛顿在扩大美国传统盟友网络之外的反俄联盟方面缺乏成功进行了恰当的总结。“西方从来没有像现在这样紧密地结合在一起。它也很少如此孤立。北大西洋公约组织的盟友加上澳大利亚和日本团结一致，反对弗拉基米尔·普京的战争，并合作展开二战以来最全面的制裁。世界其他地方则不然。”
Signs of trouble surfaced almost immediately. On March 2, 2022, the United Nations General Assembly approved a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russian military forces: 141 countries voted for the resolution, and as U.S. officials were fond of emphasizing, only five voted against.
麻烦的迹象几乎立即显现。2022年3月2日，联合国大会批准了一项决议，谴责俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，并呼吁俄罗斯军队立即撤出。141个国家投票赞成该决议，正如美国官员喜欢强调的那样，只有5个国家投了反对票。
However, a surprising 35 countries—including 17 African nations—opted to abstain, even though a favorable vote to placate the United States would have been the easy choice. The resolution was purely symbolic, since it did not obligate U.N. members to take any substantive action, yet a significant number of countries in Asia, the greater Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, opted to snub Washington. More than 20 percent of the General Assembly’s membership refused to embrace a purely feel-good measure the Biden administration emphatically wanted passed. From the outset, the U.S.-sponsored global coalition against Russia looked fragile and unenthusiastic. It has become more so with the passage of time.
然而，令人惊讶的是，有35个国家——包括17个非洲国家——选择了弃权，尽管为安抚美国而投赞成票是最容易的选择。该决议纯粹是象征性的，因为它并不要求联合国成员采取任何实质性的行动，然而，亚洲、大中东和撒哈拉以南非洲的大量国家选择了冷落华盛顿。超过20%的联合国大会成员拒绝接受拜登政府极力希望通过的一个纯粹自我感觉良好的措施。从一开始，美国支持的反对俄罗斯的全球联盟看起来就很脆弱，而且没有热情。随着时间的推移，它变得更加脆弱。
African countries especially fail to see any advantage for themselves in supporting the West’s policy. Although Washington insists that repelling Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is essential to preserve the “rules based, liberal international order,” governments and populations in Africa see matters differently. To them, the war looks more like a mundane power struggle between Russia and a Western client state. As one African scholar put it: “many in Africa and the rest of the Global South do not regard—and never have regarded—the liberal international order as particularly liberal or international. Nor do they consider it to be particularly orderly, considering how much their countries were turned into spheres of influence and arenas for geostrategic competition.”
非洲国家尤其看不到支持西方政策对自己有什么好处。尽管华盛顿坚持认为，击退俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略对于维护“基于规则的自由国际秩序”至关重要，但非洲的政府和民众却有不同的看法。对他们来说，这场战争看起来更像是俄罗斯和一个西方代理人国家之间的普通的权力斗争。正如一位非洲学者所说：“非洲和全球其他不发达国家的许多人不认为——而且从来没有认为——自由主义国际秩序是特别自由或国际化的。考虑到他们的国家在多大程度上被变成了势力范围和地缘战略竞争的舞台，他们也不认为它是特别有序的。”
More tangible economic interests also push Africa toward neutrality. A June 3 New York Times analysis concluded succinctly: “A meeting on Friday between the head of the African unx and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia highlighted the acute needs each one hopes the other can fill: Africa needs food, and the Kremlin needs allies.” Indeed, the head of the African unx, President Macky Sall of Senegal, has explicitly called for the lifting of sanctions on Russia.
更具体的经济利益也将非洲推向中立。《纽约时报》6月3日的分析简明扼要地总结道：“星期五，非洲联盟领导人和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京之间的会晤强调了各自希望对方能够满足的迫切需求。非洲需要粮食，而克里姆林宫需要盟友”。事实上，非洲联盟领导人、塞内加尔总统麦基·萨勒已明确呼吁解除对俄罗斯的制裁。
Even portions of Latin America have balked at waging economic war against Russia. Most troubling for the U.S.-led anti-Russia strategy, both Brazil and Mexico—the region’s two most important political and economic players—continue to dissent. Indeed, the tensions have broadened to negatively impact Washington’s overall relations with those two governments. Mexico’s president even refused to attend the Biden administration’s much ballyhooed “Summit of the Americas” in June. It was an ostentatious snub.
甚至拉丁美洲的部分国家也对对俄罗斯发动经济战争持保留态度。最令美国领导的反俄战略感到不安的是，巴西和墨西哥——该地区最重要的两个政治和经济参与者——继续持反对意见。事实上，紧张局势已经扩大到对华盛顿与这两国政府的整体关系产生负面影响。墨西哥总统甚至拒绝参加拜登政府6月份大肆宣传的“美洲峰会”。这是一个引人注目的冷落信号。
It is especially ominous for U.S. obxtives that both China and India have stayed on the sidelines with respect to the West’s showdown with Russia. True, *’s government has also resisted Moscow’s calls for greater solidarity and tangible support. PRC leaders have instead sought to remain on the tightrope of trying to pursue a generally neutral course with a slight tilt toward Russia’s position. But most important, both Beijing and New Delhi have remained firm in their refusal to impose economic sanctions on Russia.
对于美国的目标来说，中国和印度在西方与俄罗斯的对决中都保持观望，这一点尤其不妙。的确，中国也抵制了莫斯科要求加强团结和提供实际支持的呼吁。中国反而试图继续走钢丝，试图在总体上追求中立的路线，并向俄罗斯的立场略微倾斜。但最重要的是，北京和新德里都坚定地拒绝对俄罗斯实施经济制裁。
The Biden administration has not reacted well to any country’s attempt to maintain a neutral posture. That annoyance even has been directed at major powers such as China and India. U.S. officials have exerted increasingly insistent pressure on both governments to embrace the West’s sanctions strategy. Some of Washington’s statements have amounted to outright threats. On multipleoccasions, the administration warned India that there would be “consequences” for failing to impose sanctions on Russia. The unsubtle message was that India itself could become a target for sanctions from the United States and its allies, if New Delhi failed to cooperate.
拜登政府对任何国家试图保持中立的姿态都没有作出很好的反应。这种恼怒甚至是针对中国和印度这样的大国。美国官员对这两个国家的政府施加了日益变得急切的压力，要求它们接受西方的制裁战略。华盛顿的一些声明相当于公然威胁。美国政府多次警告印度，如果不对俄罗斯实施制裁，将会有“后果”。这个不含蓄的信息是，如果新德里不合作，印度本身也可能成为美国及其盟国的制裁目标。
Despite the much more extensive bilateral economic lixs to the PRC, Washington has even threatened Beijing with sanctions if it supported Moscow’s actions in Ukraine. Moreover, “supporting” increasingly became an implicit synonym for “failing to oppose.” Beijing did not respond passively to such pressure. Instead, the PRC warned that it would impose retaliatory sanctions against the United States and its allies.
尽管与中国的双边经济联系要广泛得多，但华盛顿甚至威胁说，如果北京支持莫斯科在乌克兰的行动，它将受到制裁。此外，“支持”越来越成为“不反对”的隐性同义词。北京没有被动地回应这种压力。相反，中国警告说，它将对美国及其盟友实施报复性制裁。
Washington’s bullying behavior is not playing well internationally. For example, the Biden administration’s threats to sanction China over Beijing’s relations with Moscow immediately spooked Thailand, Indonesia, and other smaller powers in East Asia. However, the reaction was not one of capitulating to Washington’s demands. Instead, the abrasive U.S. approach seemed to harden the resolve of those nations to remain neutral with respect to the Russia-Ukraine war. South Africa and other countries in the Global South also complained loudly about heavy-handed U.S. pressure, and refused to alter their positions.
华盛顿的欺凌行为在国际上没有取得好的效果。例如，拜登政府因北京与莫斯科的关系而威胁要制裁中国，这立即惊动了泰国、印度尼西亚和东亚的其他小国。然而，他们的反应并不是向华盛顿的要求屈服。相反，美国的粗暴做法似乎使这些国家在俄乌战争中保持中立的决心更加坚定。南非和全球其他不发达国家也大声抱怨美国的强硬压力，并拒绝改变其立场。
The Biden administration clearly overestimated the extent of international outrage at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Given the track record of multiple Western military actions against sovereign countries, including Serbia, Iraq, and Libya, it is hardly surprising that other governments might view the West’s stance regarding Moscow’s behavior as the epitome of self-serving hypocrisy. U.S. leaders also overestimated the extent of U.S. leverage to compel nations not in Washington’s geopolitical orbit to participate in a punitive policy toward Russia. It should be a sobering experience, but the administration and the members of the U.S. foreign policy blob that populates it show no signs of learning anything worthwhile. Instead, U.S. arrogance and the inflated sense of Washington’s power continues undiminished.
拜登政府显然高估了国际社会对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的愤怒程度。鉴于西方国家对主权国家采取多次军事行动的记录，包括塞尔维亚、伊拉克和利比亚，其他国家政府可能认为西方对莫斯科行为的立场是自以为是的虚伪缩影，这并不奇怪。美国领导人也高估了美国迫使不在华盛顿地缘政治轨道上的国家参与对俄罗斯的惩罚性政策的力量。这应该是一个清醒的经验，但美国政府和充斥其间的美国外交政策集团成员没有显示出任何值得学习的迹象。相反，美国的傲慢和华盛顿权力的膨胀感继续未减。
