中国正在转向数字货币以超过美元。如果中国成功了，会发生什么？
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如果中国转向数字货币超过美元成功了，会发生什么？这将分别对中国和美国产生怎样的影响？
China is turning to digital currency to surpass the US dollar. What will happen if China succeeds in doing so? How would this affect China and the US respectively?
2022-07-19
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Quora网友：人们总是会感到困惑，但中国并不想超越任何人。中国的目标是不受任何人的控制。目前使用美元（对中国而言）是一个巨大的劣势，因为美国政府会任性地使用美元的力量，以陈词滥调禁止或制裁各个国家和实体。
正文翻译
中国正在转向数字货币以超过美元。如果中国成功了，会发生什么？
评论翻译
Felix Su
Economist, Biochemist，Lives in Revere, MA
People keep getting confused. China is not trying to surpass anyone.
WhatChina’s goal is is to NOT be controlled by anyone. Currently using the USD is a huge disadvantage because the US government uses the power of the Dollar at a whim. Banning or sanctioning various nations and entities on a threadbare excuse.
人们总是会感到困惑，但中国并不想超越任何人。
中国的目标是不受任何人的控制。目前使用美元（对中国而言）是一个巨大的劣势，因为美国政府会任性地使用美元的力量，以陈词滥调禁止或制裁各个国家和实体。
The digital Yuan allows China to deal with nations directly without using the US dollar. Trying to get away from oppression is not a desire to surpass anyone. It is a desire for Freedom. Which EVERY sovereign nation should have.
数字人民币可以让中国在不使用美元的情况下直接与各国打交道。试图摆脱压迫并不意味着想超越任何人，这只是对自由的渴望，这是每个主权国家都应该拥有的权利。
{EDIT} I’ve noticed these type of questions. There is something seriously wrong with some people. The seem to have caught the psychosis from the US government. Not everything has to be about surpassing someone else.
{编辑}我注意到了这类问题。有些人存在严重的问题，他们似乎从美国政府那里染上了精神疾病，不是别人做的每件事都是要超越别人。
The US is stuck in win/lose. In order for the US to Win, someone else MUST lose. This is the dumbest trap to be caught in. In economics, if you simply trade with a fair mind, the outcome is win/win, vs win/lose.
美国陷入了输/赢的困境。为了让美国赢，就必须有其他人输，这是最愚蠢的陷阱。在经济学中，如果你能以公平的心态进行交易，结果将是双赢，而不是有人输/有人赢。
When you go to the grocery store and buy food. It’s win/win. You get something you want, the grocery store make a decent profit. But the US has the mentality of a loan shark that has gone psycho. If the US doesn’t get an absolute advantage then the US “lost”.
当你去杂货店买食物的时候，这就是双赢，因为你得到了你想要的东西，杂货店也获得了可观的利润。但美国的心态就像一个精神错乱的高利贷者，如果美国没有获得绝对的优势，那就意味着美国“输了”。
This type of transaction is unsustainable. Even when you win, you lose because you must use a disproportionate amount of the money that you made for the military to ensure that you “win”. This makes other people not want to deal with you which makes you the biggest loser in the long term.
这样的交易是不可持续的。即使你赢了，实际上你也输了，因为你必须为军队花费不成比例的钱来确保你们一直“赢”。这会让其他人不想和你打交道，从长远来看你会成为最大的失败者。
So I have noticed that this psycho loan shark mentality seem to have infected a lot of Americans. Which does not bode well for the US.
所以我注意到这种高利贷心理似乎感染了很多美国人，这对美国来说不是个好兆头。
Robert Quek
Former Retired. Prior Employment in Finance Sector，Lived in Lived in Singapore
China’s digital currency called Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) is under test in several cities and on a new digital Didi platform which has 500 million users. Some civil servants have been paid in DCEP. This is domestic, only within China. I suppose the experiment will be extended to more cities and more applications will be added, such as on the major online platforms, like Alibaba and Tencent, and offline to supermarkets, restaurants, stores and so on. Perhaps it will be another year or two before it goes national.
中国的数字货币即“数字货币电子支付系统”（DCEP）正在多个城市和一个拥有5亿用户的新型数字平台“滴滴”上进行测试，一些公务员已经通过这一系统领到了薪酬。这项测试目前只在中国境内进行，我认为很快将扩展到更多的城市，并将添加到更多的应用程序上，例如在阿里巴巴和腾讯等主要的在线平台以及超市、餐馆、商店等的线下场景。也许再过一两年它会在全国铺开。
QR cashless payment is already widespread in China. DCEP is thus not entirely new or strange to the people. Its value is guaranteed by the government, such as for example, one DCEP equals one Yuan. The people should not feel any change by its adoption.
二维码无现金支付在中国已经非常普遍。因此，“数字人民币”对人们来说并不完全是新的或陌生的。它的价值是由政府担保的，例如，一个“数字人民币”等于一元，人民不会因为“数字人民币”的采用而感到有任何变化。
The advantages are significant. It uses the blockchain technology, and reportedly is hack-proof. Money in your account cannot be stolen. Transactions using DCEP create an audit trail and so it is also corruption free. And monetary policy based on the flow of funds throughout the system, need not be a broad brush, and may be nuanced and direct to where it will do the most good.
“数字人民币”的优势是显著的，它使用区块链技术，据报道可以防止黑客攻击，因此你账户上的钱不会被盗。使用“数字人民币”的交易会创建审计跟踪，因此也可以防止腐败。而基于整个系统资金流动的货币政策可以不用一刀切，可能会有细微差别，能够直接指向最能发挥作用的地方。
But it would be quite a leap to evolve into international payments. The more likely scenario is for China to share its experience from RCEP and works in cooperation with other governments to create an international digital payment system (IDPS). That will make it more readily and generally acceptable. EU has expressed interest in such a system. Other countries will come on board when one is in train. There are already many countries which have significant trades outside the US$ system. Such as in local currencies, often backed by swap arrangements, trades between China and Russia are mostly in Rmb and Ruble, China’s purchases of oil in Rmb from Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, and even the EU which uses Euro & Ruble in some oil and gas trades with Russia.
但在国际支付方面的发展将是一个相当大的飞跃。更可能的情况是，中国将分享其在RCEP方面的经验，并与其他政府合作创建一个国际数字支付系统（IDPS），这将使它更容易被普遍接受。欧盟对这样一个体系表示了兴趣，当万事俱备时，其他国家也会加入。已经有许多国家在美元体系之外进行了大量的交易。例如，以本币计价（通常以货币互换安排为后盾），中俄贸易多以人民币和卢布进行，中国以人民币从伊朗、伊拉克和委内瑞拉购买石油，甚至欧盟在部分石油和天然气采购中也使用欧元和卢布与俄罗斯进行交易。
IDPS should serve the three functions of money in international transactions, namely unit of account, store of value, and medium of exchange, as well as a reserve currency for central banks. Many facilitating institutions will need to be developed alongside the digital currency. Some will take time to develop and build up, especially those that require large number of active private sector players, such as dealers in an exchange market and in the commodity markets. There is much to do.
国际数字支付系统（IDPS）应在国际交易中发挥货币的三大功能，即记账单位、价值储存和交换媒介，以及作为中央银行的储备货币。许多促进机构将需要与数字货币一起发展，其中一些将需要时间来发展和建立，尤其是那些需要大量活跃的私营部门参与者（例如交易所市场和商品市场的交易商）的机构还有很多事情要做。
But the incentives are there, mainly and ironically, provided by the US. Notables are the weaponisation of the US$, the swagger by US politicians using it to threaten this or that country whose actions they obxt, and the tendency for the Fed to act without consultations with other central banks even though the actions may have severe repercussions on them.
但具有讽刺意味的是，这些激励措施主要是由美国提供的。其中值得注意的是美元的武器化，美国政客利用美元威胁他们反对的这个或那个国家，以及美联储倾向于在不与其他中央银行协商的情况下采取行动（尽管这些行动可能会对他们产生严重影响）。
Also, should we be concerned about the US national debt which seems to rise inexorably? Other rich countries’ too, but theirs are minor or not reserve currencies. Economists used to be wary of what they called moral hazards caused by the rising debts. Nowadays they seem to take an about-turn, arguing that debts do not matter as interest rates are so low. When an accounting is finally done, will there be consequences? Such as those visited upon the world caused by the sub-prime and MBO fiasco in the US over 10 years ago. LDCs as always do not have the privileges but still bear the consequences.
此外，我们是否还应该担心美国国债似乎在势不可挡地上升？虽然其他富裕的国家也是如此，但它们的规模很小或者并非储备货币。经济学家过去对债务上升所造成的道德风险持谨慎态度，如今，他们似乎改变了主意，认为债务无关紧要，因为利率是如此之低。但这会带来什么后果吗？例如，10多年前美国次贷危机和管理层收购（MBO）惨败所造成的世界性影响。最不发达国家一如既往地没有特权，但仍然必须承担后果。
Bill Chen, Budding economist，Lives in Singapore
Talk of the Chinese digital currency surpassing the dollar is premature and as we shall explore, off the mark.
China is not making a new currency. It is experimenting with a new form of yuan creation and more importantly, the delivery and transaction mechanism of a digital yuan.
关于中国数字货币超过美元的讨论还为时过早，正如我们将要探讨的那样，这不是重点。
中国没有创造新货币，它只是正在尝试一种新的人民币创造形式，更重要的是数字人民币的交付和交易机制。
Adopting new mechanisms of getting the Renminbi to the mainland masses will not supplant the dollar globally. China is not experimenting with a new Chinese bitcoin as an alternative to the yuan.
What China is marching towards is a completely digital and smart economy. This is the internet of things for the financial world. Much like networking appliances to turn them into smart grids, a true digital currency turns dumb cash into smart tokens, powered by the blockchain.
采用新的机制将人民币推向大陆民众并不会在全球范围内取代美元，中国并没有尝试用一种新的中国比特币（Chinese bitcoin）来替代人民币。
中国正在迈向的是一个完全数字化和智能化的经济。这是金融世界的物联网，就像网络设备把电网变成智能电网一样，真正的数字货币是将愚蠢的现金变成智能代币，并由区块链提供支持。
Imagine monetary value that cannot be lost and is fully trackable. Transactions are instantaneous and secure. Efficiency on the micro level improves by orders of magnitude, lowering cost while cannibalizing traditional banking. Knowledge and control at the macro level will be unprecedented, offering instant God's eye view of the economy.
想象一下货币价值不会丢失并且完全可以追踪，那么交易将是即时发生且安全的。在微观层面上，效率将提高几个数量级，而且会降低成本，同时还能蚕食传统银行的业务。而在宏观层面上的了解和控制将是前所未有的，可以为经济提供即时的上帝视角。
The nation that manages to implement this on a national scale will turbocharge its productivity and revolutionize finance. The true threat of a digital currency isn't aimed at the USD. It is traditional banking and financial services. Banks were useful in the 20th century not because they controlled the cash, but the Metadata behind its flow through the economy, from the poorest individual to the biggest corporations and the government itself. That function can be replaced by the blockchain, with complete transparency.
一个能够在全国范围内实现这一目标的国家将提高其生产力并彻底改革金融业。数字货币的真正威胁并非针对美元，它针对的是传统的银行和金融服务。银行在20世纪之所以有用，并不是因为它们控制着资金，而是因为它们控制着资金从最穷的个人到最大的公司及政府本身在经济中流动的原始数据。这个功能可以被区块链取代，并且完全透明。
China has shown great boldness in cannibalizing traditional financial services by allowing digital wallet providers like alipay to function as banks. It remains the only major economy to pursue aggressive financial reform in order to further digitize its economy.
中国在蚕食传统金融服务方面表现出了极大的勇气，它允许像支付宝这样的数字钱包提供商取代银行，它仍然是唯一一个为进一步实现经济数字化而积极进行金融改革的主要经济体。
China is willing to take risks and upend legacy systems in a manner few societies have demonstratedIt is not any particular project of the Chinese nation that will upend the global status quo. Rather, it is the speed of a China that is marching in step whilst the rest are marching in place that will surprise many in the decades to come.
中国愿意承担风险，以一些国家没有表现出的方式颠覆之前的金融体系。
颠覆世界的现状本身没什么特别。但是在未来的几十年里，中国进步神速，而其他国家将在原地踏步，这将使许多人感到惊讶。
Jani Jalkala, lives in China (2013-present)
I believe nothing significant will happen on that front. Digital currency will not enable China to surpass US dollar any more than they can or can’t do with traditional currency.
China has tightly controlled monetary system, where the currency, regardless of it being traditional or digital, will not be freely exchangeable to other currencies.
我相信在这方面不会发生什么重大的事情。数字货币不会使人民币超过美元，就像他们在使用传统货币的时候一样。
中国有严格的货币控制体系，无论是传统货币还是数字货币，都无法与其他货币自由兑换。
At best, e-RMB may be able to operate outside international banking systems (most notably SWIFT), and could in that position act as backup for China. This would be useful in case China gets blocked from SWIFT, over which USA has a degree of control due to critical role of USD.
充其量，数字人民币或许可以在国际银行体系（最典型的是SWIFT，即环球同业银行金融电讯协会）之外运作，并可以作为中国的备份。这将非常有用，可以防止中国被阻止在SWIFT之外，因为美国对SWIFT拥有一定程度的控制权。
In such scenario, entities still open for business with China could continue completing settlements with e-RMB, but the advantage over traditional RMB would be just to avoid handling large amounts of physical money - an element of convenience and maybe preventing counterfeiting, nothing more.
在这种情况下，仍然与中国开展业务的实体可以继续使用数字人民币完成结算，但与传统的人民币相比，它的优势在于避免处理大量的实物货币——这是一种便利因素，或许还能防止伪造，但仅此而已。
USA has limited control over SWIFT transactions, simply because USD is so popular and many transactions go from currency X to USD to currency Y.
But conversely, China will have 100% control over e-RMB transactions.
美国对SWIFT交易的控制有限，原因很简单，因为美元非常受欢迎，许多交易会从X货币换到美元再换成Y货币。
但相反，中国将对数字人民币交易拥有100%的控制权。
In international settlements, e-RMB will be a backup vehicle for worst-case scenarios, and I believe that in those scenarios RMB (e or not) will lose international momentum while USD gets stronger. It would be a way for China to mitigate losses that would anyway be massive.
在国际结算中，数字人民币将成为最坏情况下的备用工具，我相信在这种情况下，人民币（不管是否数字化）将失去发展势头，而美元将走强。这个备份将是中国在无论如何都会受到巨大损失的情况下减轻损失的一种方式。
Domestically in China, physical RMB has already for years been disappearing from everyday use in China, due to mobile payment options. Digital currency will simply complete this development.
在中国国内，由于移动支付的选择，实物人民币已经在中国的日常使用中消失多年，数字货币将简单地完成这一发展。
Lance Chambers，Lives in Australia
A host of nations are thinking of deploying digital only currencies and China seem to be thinking of a quantum crypto currency so I have read. One of the main reason is that a quantum crypto currency would be unhackable or at the very least take a few thousands years to crack.
许多国家都在考虑部署数字货币，而中国似乎在考虑量子加密货币。其中一个主要原因是量子加密货币是不可破解的，或者至少需要几千年才能破解。
For China one of the main reasons is apparently to stop corruption. This is made possible because the government would require that an app be installed on everyone’s phone. You take your phone to one of a number of specified locations, there your identity is confirmed, a photo of your face is taken for record purposes. Whenever you make a transaction your phone checks your identity, using your camera to check your face so as to confirm it is YOU making the payment. before a payment is made.
对中国来说，一个主要动机显然是要制止腐败。这之所以成为可能，是因为政府将要求在每个人的手机上安装一个应用程序，你把你的手机带到一个指定的地点，在那里你的身份将得到确认，你的面部照片将被拍摄并应用于记录的目的。当你进行交易时，在付款之前你的手机会检查你的身份，用你的相机核实你的面部以确认是你在付款。
Liu Lisong（刘立松）
I think the most direct impact of the digital renminbi is that China’s statistical GDP will surge. Because many of the private economy and service industries that were not under management will be taxed.
我认为，数字人民币最直接的影响是中国的GDP将激增，因为许多不在管理之下的私营经济和服务业将被征税。
Lance Chambers
Very true.
The term I used was to ‘stop corruption’ rather than ‘ensure taxes are paid’ which is a part of ‘corruption’.
非常正确。
我用的这个词是“制止腐败”而不是“确保缴税”，因为这也是“腐败”的一部分。
Richard Chak
Wow than the U.S. should implement it ASAP than people like Trump could not hide his transaction he would n't be able to pay $750 tax….
哇，美国应该尽快实施它，让像特朗普这样的人无法掩盖他的交易，他将无法只支付750美元的税款（特朗普当总统后每年仅缴纳750美元税款）…
Spencer Bartsch
The majority if not all of Chinas citizens already use their phones to pay for everything right now. Via WeChat pay, Alipay and the in app payment options from both. It’s truly amazing, extremely convenient as almost everyone has a smart phone these days. No contact payments.
目前，大多数（如果不是全部）中国公民已经通过微信支付、支付宝以及两者的应用内的支付选项使用手机支付一切费用。现在几乎每个人都有一部智能手机，这真是太棒了，非常方便，无需接触即可完成付款。
Lance Chambers
I understand that many Chinese citizens have two phones - one for work and another for personal use. I’m not sure this is true but I can certainly believe it.
据我了解，许多中国公民有两部手机——一部用于工作，另一部用于个人使用。我不确定这是不是真的，但我相信这个。
Paul Clifford，ACIS from University of SydneyGraduated 1978，Lives in Sydney, Australia1953–present
China is turning to digital currency to surpass the US dollar. What will happen if China succeeds in doing so? How would this affect China and the US respectively?
China is not unique, most of the world is phasing out cash and coin, and adopting electronic funds transfers between bank accounts.
I live in Australia. I can’t remember the last time I had the necessity to carry notes or coins, use an ATM or go into a Bank! Here in Sydney, public transport only accepts Opal Cards (lixed to your debit or credit card for top up). All purchases under AU$100 are “Tap & Go”, and over AU$100 “Tap and [enter your pin number]”.
中国并非唯一一个这样做的国家，世界上大多数国家都在逐步淘汰现金和硬币，并采用银行账户间的电子转账方式。
我生活在澳大利亚，我不记得我最后一次需要携带纸币或硬币、使用自动取款机或进入银行是什么时候了！在悉尼，公共交通只接受Opal卡（与您的借记卡或信用卡相连以充值）。100澳元以下的所有消费都只需“点击即转”（Tap & Go），超过100澳元的则需要“点击并[输入您的pin码]”。
Eliminates the handling of disease carrying cash and coins )most important with the covid-19 pandemic), saves time, shops don’t need to have a change float or go to the bank to make deposits. It is a win, win for everybody!
不携带现金和硬币可以避免接触病毒（这在大流行期间很重要），既节省了时间，商店也不需要找零或去银行存款。对每个人来说，这都是一场多赢！
Of course, notes & coins haven’t been phased out completely, but more and more shops have signs saying “Credit or Debit cards only. No cash!”. Ten or so years ago,, you’d occasionally see a sign “Cash Only” here in Sydney, but such seem to have disappeared completely. Some shops may require notes or coins for purchases under AU$5, but they seem to be disappearing also.
当然，纸币和硬币还没有完全被淘汰，但越来越多的商店都有“只能用信用卡或借记卡，不收现金”的标牌。大约十年前，在悉尼你偶尔还能看到一个“只收现金”的店铺，但现在似乎已经完全消失了。一些商店可能还收5澳元以下的纸币或硬币，但它们似乎也在消失。
Back in 2003 I spent a few months travelling the hinterlands of southern Europe. Most of the time I used my Australian debit or credit cards. Currency conversion was automatic. On the rare occasion I needed cash, I used an ATM!
早在2003年，我花了几个月的时间在南欧腹地旅行。大多数时候我用我的澳大利亚借记卡或信用卡，货币是自动兑换的，我很少有需要现金的时候！
The USA banking system appears to be very technologically backward (though it depends on the bank). People (especially Australians) are highly mobile world travellers, so don’t want to waste time and money using person to person banking, to access cash. Even more so, they don’t want to be carrying around large sums of cash.
美国的银行系统似乎在技术上非常落后（尽管这取决于银行）。人们（尤其是澳大利亚人）是高度流动的世界旅行者，所以不想浪费时间和金钱去使用银行以获取现金。更重要的是，他们不想随身携带大量现金。
Unlike people in the USA most of whom haven’t a passport, and haven’t the money to travel outside of their region, the PRC (China) has a thriving and growing middle class, who have the freedom to travel internationally. They don’t want to be bothered with currency conversions or the annoyance of searching for an ATM.
Get with the 21st century. Cash and coin are obsolete, and it has nothing to do with the US$!
与大多数美国人没有护照，也没有钱出国旅行不同，中国有一个蓬勃发展的中产阶级，他们有国际旅行的自由，他们不想为货币兑换或寻找自动取款机而烦恼。
迎接21世纪吧，现金和硬币已经过时了，但这和美元无关！
Manix Wong
But The Reserve Bank of Australia is taking precautionary measures not to dabble into Central bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and does not believe there is currently a strong policy case for issuing a CBDC in Australia
It just happened last month
So what’s really going on in Australia?
但澳大利亚储备银行正在采取预防措施，不涉足中央银行数字货币（CBDC），而且认为目前在澳大利亚发行数字货币的政策理由并不充分。
这是上个月才发生的。
所以，澳大利亚到底发生了什么？
Jim Sadler
When the transition to digital currency is complete , people will be completely subject to mercy of the government . If you don’t hold it ,you don’t own it .
当向数字货币的过渡完成之后，人们将完全受到政府的控制。如果你不支持政府，你将无法拥有货币。
Paul Clifford
Grow up and drop your infantile conspiracy theories promoted by the money exchangers!
The move to direct electronic transfer, has nothing to do with the government, but private sector and consumer demand. Nothing has changed on monetary policy, other than it is more cost efficient and secure to use electronic transfer rather than symbolic tokens (cash & coin).
Pointedly, worldwide it is costing more to produce coin than the face value of the coin, and because of technology it has becoming increasing easier to counterfeit notes, especially the “green back” = USA dollar! For decades, advanced economies have been using plastic money especially sized, coloured, embossed and encoded to prevent counterfeiting and to make life easier for visually impaired people. The processes to produce these are expensive.
Electronic funds transfer is not only a cheaper and more convenient form of money exchange, it is also more secure!
成熟点，放下你的那些由货币兑换商鼓吹的幼稚的阴谋论吧！
转向直接电子转账的举措与政府无关，它只与私营部门和消费者的需求有关。除了使用电子转账比使用象征性的代币（现金和硬币）更具成本效益和安全性外，货币政策没有发生任何变化。
值得一提的是，在世界范围内，生产硬币的成本比硬币的面值还高，而且由于技术的进步，伪造纸币（尤其是绿纸）正变得越来越容易！几十年来，发达的经济体一直在使用有专门的大小、颜色、雕刻和编码以防止造假并使视力受损的人生活更方便的塑料货币，但生产这些货币的过程是很昂贵的。
电子资金转账不仅是一种更便宜、更方便的货币兑换形式，而且更安全！
John Fenn
You can always guy gold and put it under your bed. The true downside of a cashless society is that the government and the banks can and will impose taxes and transfer fees on EVERY transaction.
你可以把金子藏在床底下。无现金社会的真正缺点是政府和银行可以而且将对每笔交易征收税款和交易费。
原文地址：
Economist, Biochemist，Lives in Revere, MA
People keep getting confused. China is not trying to surpass anyone.
WhatChina’s goal is is to NOT be controlled by anyone. Currently using the USD is a huge disadvantage because the US government uses the power of the Dollar at a whim. Banning or sanctioning various nations and entities on a threadbare excuse.
人们总是会感到困惑，但中国并不想超越任何人。
中国的目标是不受任何人的控制。目前使用美元（对中国而言）是一个巨大的劣势，因为美国政府会任性地使用美元的力量，以陈词滥调禁止或制裁各个国家和实体。
The digital Yuan allows China to deal with nations directly without using the US dollar. Trying to get away from oppression is not a desire to surpass anyone. It is a desire for Freedom. Which EVERY sovereign nation should have.
数字人民币可以让中国在不使用美元的情况下直接与各国打交道。试图摆脱压迫并不意味着想超越任何人，这只是对自由的渴望，这是每个主权国家都应该拥有的权利。
{EDIT} I’ve noticed these type of questions. There is something seriously wrong with some people. The seem to have caught the psychosis from the US government. Not everything has to be about surpassing someone else.
{编辑}我注意到了这类问题。有些人存在严重的问题，他们似乎从美国政府那里染上了精神疾病，不是别人做的每件事都是要超越别人。
The US is stuck in win/lose. In order for the US to Win, someone else MUST lose. This is the dumbest trap to be caught in. In economics, if you simply trade with a fair mind, the outcome is win/win, vs win/lose.
美国陷入了输/赢的困境。为了让美国赢，就必须有其他人输，这是最愚蠢的陷阱。在经济学中，如果你能以公平的心态进行交易，结果将是双赢，而不是有人输/有人赢。
When you go to the grocery store and buy food. It’s win/win. You get something you want, the grocery store make a decent profit. But the US has the mentality of a loan shark that has gone psycho. If the US doesn’t get an absolute advantage then the US “lost”.
当你去杂货店买食物的时候，这就是双赢，因为你得到了你想要的东西，杂货店也获得了可观的利润。但美国的心态就像一个精神错乱的高利贷者，如果美国没有获得绝对的优势，那就意味着美国“输了”。
This type of transaction is unsustainable. Even when you win, you lose because you must use a disproportionate amount of the money that you made for the military to ensure that you “win”. This makes other people not want to deal with you which makes you the biggest loser in the long term.
这样的交易是不可持续的。即使你赢了，实际上你也输了，因为你必须为军队花费不成比例的钱来确保你们一直“赢”。这会让其他人不想和你打交道，从长远来看你会成为最大的失败者。
So I have noticed that this psycho loan shark mentality seem to have infected a lot of Americans. Which does not bode well for the US.
所以我注意到这种高利贷心理似乎感染了很多美国人，这对美国来说不是个好兆头。
Robert Quek
Former Retired. Prior Employment in Finance Sector，Lived in Lived in Singapore
China’s digital currency called Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) is under test in several cities and on a new digital Didi platform which has 500 million users. Some civil servants have been paid in DCEP. This is domestic, only within China. I suppose the experiment will be extended to more cities and more applications will be added, such as on the major online platforms, like Alibaba and Tencent, and offline to supermarkets, restaurants, stores and so on. Perhaps it will be another year or two before it goes national.
中国的数字货币即“数字货币电子支付系统”（DCEP）正在多个城市和一个拥有5亿用户的新型数字平台“滴滴”上进行测试，一些公务员已经通过这一系统领到了薪酬。这项测试目前只在中国境内进行，我认为很快将扩展到更多的城市，并将添加到更多的应用程序上，例如在阿里巴巴和腾讯等主要的在线平台以及超市、餐馆、商店等的线下场景。也许再过一两年它会在全国铺开。
QR cashless payment is already widespread in China. DCEP is thus not entirely new or strange to the people. Its value is guaranteed by the government, such as for example, one DCEP equals one Yuan. The people should not feel any change by its adoption.
二维码无现金支付在中国已经非常普遍。因此，“数字人民币”对人们来说并不完全是新的或陌生的。它的价值是由政府担保的，例如，一个“数字人民币”等于一元，人民不会因为“数字人民币”的采用而感到有任何变化。
The advantages are significant. It uses the blockchain technology, and reportedly is hack-proof. Money in your account cannot be stolen. Transactions using DCEP create an audit trail and so it is also corruption free. And monetary policy based on the flow of funds throughout the system, need not be a broad brush, and may be nuanced and direct to where it will do the most good.
“数字人民币”的优势是显著的，它使用区块链技术，据报道可以防止黑客攻击，因此你账户上的钱不会被盗。使用“数字人民币”的交易会创建审计跟踪，因此也可以防止腐败。而基于整个系统资金流动的货币政策可以不用一刀切，可能会有细微差别，能够直接指向最能发挥作用的地方。
But it would be quite a leap to evolve into international payments. The more likely scenario is for China to share its experience from RCEP and works in cooperation with other governments to create an international digital payment system (IDPS). That will make it more readily and generally acceptable. EU has expressed interest in such a system. Other countries will come on board when one is in train. There are already many countries which have significant trades outside the US$ system. Such as in local currencies, often backed by swap arrangements, trades between China and Russia are mostly in Rmb and Ruble, China’s purchases of oil in Rmb from Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, and even the EU which uses Euro & Ruble in some oil and gas trades with Russia.
但在国际支付方面的发展将是一个相当大的飞跃。更可能的情况是，中国将分享其在RCEP方面的经验，并与其他政府合作创建一个国际数字支付系统（IDPS），这将使它更容易被普遍接受。欧盟对这样一个体系表示了兴趣，当万事俱备时，其他国家也会加入。已经有许多国家在美元体系之外进行了大量的交易。例如，以本币计价（通常以货币互换安排为后盾），中俄贸易多以人民币和卢布进行，中国以人民币从伊朗、伊拉克和委内瑞拉购买石油，甚至欧盟在部分石油和天然气采购中也使用欧元和卢布与俄罗斯进行交易。
IDPS should serve the three functions of money in international transactions, namely unit of account, store of value, and medium of exchange, as well as a reserve currency for central banks. Many facilitating institutions will need to be developed alongside the digital currency. Some will take time to develop and build up, especially those that require large number of active private sector players, such as dealers in an exchange market and in the commodity markets. There is much to do.
国际数字支付系统（IDPS）应在国际交易中发挥货币的三大功能，即记账单位、价值储存和交换媒介，以及作为中央银行的储备货币。许多促进机构将需要与数字货币一起发展，其中一些将需要时间来发展和建立，尤其是那些需要大量活跃的私营部门参与者（例如交易所市场和商品市场的交易商）的机构还有很多事情要做。
But the incentives are there, mainly and ironically, provided by the US. Notables are the weaponisation of the US$, the swagger by US politicians using it to threaten this or that country whose actions they obxt, and the tendency for the Fed to act without consultations with other central banks even though the actions may have severe repercussions on them.
但具有讽刺意味的是，这些激励措施主要是由美国提供的。其中值得注意的是美元的武器化，美国政客利用美元威胁他们反对的这个或那个国家，以及美联储倾向于在不与其他中央银行协商的情况下采取行动（尽管这些行动可能会对他们产生严重影响）。
Also, should we be concerned about the US national debt which seems to rise inexorably? Other rich countries’ too, but theirs are minor or not reserve currencies. Economists used to be wary of what they called moral hazards caused by the rising debts. Nowadays they seem to take an about-turn, arguing that debts do not matter as interest rates are so low. When an accounting is finally done, will there be consequences? Such as those visited upon the world caused by the sub-prime and MBO fiasco in the US over 10 years ago. LDCs as always do not have the privileges but still bear the consequences.
此外，我们是否还应该担心美国国债似乎在势不可挡地上升？虽然其他富裕的国家也是如此，但它们的规模很小或者并非储备货币。经济学家过去对债务上升所造成的道德风险持谨慎态度，如今，他们似乎改变了主意，认为债务无关紧要，因为利率是如此之低。但这会带来什么后果吗？例如，10多年前美国次贷危机和管理层收购（MBO）惨败所造成的世界性影响。最不发达国家一如既往地没有特权，但仍然必须承担后果。
Bill Chen, Budding economist，Lives in Singapore
Talk of the Chinese digital currency surpassing the dollar is premature and as we shall explore, off the mark.
China is not making a new currency. It is experimenting with a new form of yuan creation and more importantly, the delivery and transaction mechanism of a digital yuan.
关于中国数字货币超过美元的讨论还为时过早，正如我们将要探讨的那样，这不是重点。
中国没有创造新货币，它只是正在尝试一种新的人民币创造形式，更重要的是数字人民币的交付和交易机制。
Adopting new mechanisms of getting the Renminbi to the mainland masses will not supplant the dollar globally. China is not experimenting with a new Chinese bitcoin as an alternative to the yuan.
What China is marching towards is a completely digital and smart economy. This is the internet of things for the financial world. Much like networking appliances to turn them into smart grids, a true digital currency turns dumb cash into smart tokens, powered by the blockchain.
采用新的机制将人民币推向大陆民众并不会在全球范围内取代美元，中国并没有尝试用一种新的中国比特币（Chinese bitcoin）来替代人民币。
中国正在迈向的是一个完全数字化和智能化的经济。这是金融世界的物联网，就像网络设备把电网变成智能电网一样，真正的数字货币是将愚蠢的现金变成智能代币，并由区块链提供支持。
Imagine monetary value that cannot be lost and is fully trackable. Transactions are instantaneous and secure. Efficiency on the micro level improves by orders of magnitude, lowering cost while cannibalizing traditional banking. Knowledge and control at the macro level will be unprecedented, offering instant God's eye view of the economy.
想象一下货币价值不会丢失并且完全可以追踪，那么交易将是即时发生且安全的。在微观层面上，效率将提高几个数量级，而且会降低成本，同时还能蚕食传统银行的业务。而在宏观层面上的了解和控制将是前所未有的，可以为经济提供即时的上帝视角。
The nation that manages to implement this on a national scale will turbocharge its productivity and revolutionize finance. The true threat of a digital currency isn't aimed at the USD. It is traditional banking and financial services. Banks were useful in the 20th century not because they controlled the cash, but the Metadata behind its flow through the economy, from the poorest individual to the biggest corporations and the government itself. That function can be replaced by the blockchain, with complete transparency.
一个能够在全国范围内实现这一目标的国家将提高其生产力并彻底改革金融业。数字货币的真正威胁并非针对美元，它针对的是传统的银行和金融服务。银行在20世纪之所以有用，并不是因为它们控制着资金，而是因为它们控制着资金从最穷的个人到最大的公司及政府本身在经济中流动的原始数据。这个功能可以被区块链取代，并且完全透明。
China has shown great boldness in cannibalizing traditional financial services by allowing digital wallet providers like alipay to function as banks. It remains the only major economy to pursue aggressive financial reform in order to further digitize its economy.
中国在蚕食传统金融服务方面表现出了极大的勇气，它允许像支付宝这样的数字钱包提供商取代银行，它仍然是唯一一个为进一步实现经济数字化而积极进行金融改革的主要经济体。
China is willing to take risks and upend legacy systems in a manner few societies have demonstratedIt is not any particular project of the Chinese nation that will upend the global status quo. Rather, it is the speed of a China that is marching in step whilst the rest are marching in place that will surprise many in the decades to come.
中国愿意承担风险，以一些国家没有表现出的方式颠覆之前的金融体系。
颠覆世界的现状本身没什么特别。但是在未来的几十年里，中国进步神速，而其他国家将在原地踏步，这将使许多人感到惊讶。
Jani Jalkala, lives in China (2013-present)
I believe nothing significant will happen on that front. Digital currency will not enable China to surpass US dollar any more than they can or can’t do with traditional currency.
China has tightly controlled monetary system, where the currency, regardless of it being traditional or digital, will not be freely exchangeable to other currencies.
我相信在这方面不会发生什么重大的事情。数字货币不会使人民币超过美元，就像他们在使用传统货币的时候一样。
中国有严格的货币控制体系，无论是传统货币还是数字货币，都无法与其他货币自由兑换。
At best, e-RMB may be able to operate outside international banking systems (most notably SWIFT), and could in that position act as backup for China. This would be useful in case China gets blocked from SWIFT, over which USA has a degree of control due to critical role of USD.
充其量，数字人民币或许可以在国际银行体系（最典型的是SWIFT，即环球同业银行金融电讯协会）之外运作，并可以作为中国的备份。这将非常有用，可以防止中国被阻止在SWIFT之外，因为美国对SWIFT拥有一定程度的控制权。
In such scenario, entities still open for business with China could continue completing settlements with e-RMB, but the advantage over traditional RMB would be just to avoid handling large amounts of physical money - an element of convenience and maybe preventing counterfeiting, nothing more.
在这种情况下，仍然与中国开展业务的实体可以继续使用数字人民币完成结算，但与传统的人民币相比，它的优势在于避免处理大量的实物货币——这是一种便利因素，或许还能防止伪造，但仅此而已。
USA has limited control over SWIFT transactions, simply because USD is so popular and many transactions go from currency X to USD to currency Y.
But conversely, China will have 100% control over e-RMB transactions.
美国对SWIFT交易的控制有限，原因很简单，因为美元非常受欢迎，许多交易会从X货币换到美元再换成Y货币。
但相反，中国将对数字人民币交易拥有100%的控制权。
In international settlements, e-RMB will be a backup vehicle for worst-case scenarios, and I believe that in those scenarios RMB (e or not) will lose international momentum while USD gets stronger. It would be a way for China to mitigate losses that would anyway be massive.
在国际结算中，数字人民币将成为最坏情况下的备用工具，我相信在这种情况下，人民币（不管是否数字化）将失去发展势头，而美元将走强。这个备份将是中国在无论如何都会受到巨大损失的情况下减轻损失的一种方式。
Domestically in China, physical RMB has already for years been disappearing from everyday use in China, due to mobile payment options. Digital currency will simply complete this development.
在中国国内，由于移动支付的选择，实物人民币已经在中国的日常使用中消失多年，数字货币将简单地完成这一发展。
Lance Chambers，Lives in Australia
A host of nations are thinking of deploying digital only currencies and China seem to be thinking of a quantum crypto currency so I have read. One of the main reason is that a quantum crypto currency would be unhackable or at the very least take a few thousands years to crack.
许多国家都在考虑部署数字货币，而中国似乎在考虑量子加密货币。其中一个主要原因是量子加密货币是不可破解的，或者至少需要几千年才能破解。
For China one of the main reasons is apparently to stop corruption. This is made possible because the government would require that an app be installed on everyone’s phone. You take your phone to one of a number of specified locations, there your identity is confirmed, a photo of your face is taken for record purposes. Whenever you make a transaction your phone checks your identity, using your camera to check your face so as to confirm it is YOU making the payment. before a payment is made.
对中国来说，一个主要动机显然是要制止腐败。这之所以成为可能，是因为政府将要求在每个人的手机上安装一个应用程序，你把你的手机带到一个指定的地点，在那里你的身份将得到确认，你的面部照片将被拍摄并应用于记录的目的。当你进行交易时，在付款之前你的手机会检查你的身份，用你的相机核实你的面部以确认是你在付款。
Liu Lisong（刘立松）
I think the most direct impact of the digital renminbi is that China’s statistical GDP will surge. Because many of the private economy and service industries that were not under management will be taxed.
我认为，数字人民币最直接的影响是中国的GDP将激增，因为许多不在管理之下的私营经济和服务业将被征税。
Lance Chambers
Very true.
The term I used was to ‘stop corruption’ rather than ‘ensure taxes are paid’ which is a part of ‘corruption’.
非常正确。
我用的这个词是“制止腐败”而不是“确保缴税”，因为这也是“腐败”的一部分。
Richard Chak
Wow than the U.S. should implement it ASAP than people like Trump could not hide his transaction he would n't be able to pay $750 tax….
哇，美国应该尽快实施它，让像特朗普这样的人无法掩盖他的交易，他将无法只支付750美元的税款（特朗普当总统后每年仅缴纳750美元税款）…
Spencer Bartsch
The majority if not all of Chinas citizens already use their phones to pay for everything right now. Via WeChat pay, Alipay and the in app payment options from both. It’s truly amazing, extremely convenient as almost everyone has a smart phone these days. No contact payments.
目前，大多数（如果不是全部）中国公民已经通过微信支付、支付宝以及两者的应用内的支付选项使用手机支付一切费用。现在几乎每个人都有一部智能手机，这真是太棒了，非常方便，无需接触即可完成付款。
Lance Chambers
I understand that many Chinese citizens have two phones - one for work and another for personal use. I’m not sure this is true but I can certainly believe it.
据我了解，许多中国公民有两部手机——一部用于工作，另一部用于个人使用。我不确定这是不是真的，但我相信这个。
Paul Clifford，ACIS from University of SydneyGraduated 1978，Lives in Sydney, Australia1953–present
China is turning to digital currency to surpass the US dollar. What will happen if China succeeds in doing so? How would this affect China and the US respectively?
China is not unique, most of the world is phasing out cash and coin, and adopting electronic funds transfers between bank accounts.
I live in Australia. I can’t remember the last time I had the necessity to carry notes or coins, use an ATM or go into a Bank! Here in Sydney, public transport only accepts Opal Cards (lixed to your debit or credit card for top up). All purchases under AU$100 are “Tap & Go”, and over AU$100 “Tap and [enter your pin number]”.
中国并非唯一一个这样做的国家，世界上大多数国家都在逐步淘汰现金和硬币，并采用银行账户间的电子转账方式。
我生活在澳大利亚，我不记得我最后一次需要携带纸币或硬币、使用自动取款机或进入银行是什么时候了！在悉尼，公共交通只接受Opal卡（与您的借记卡或信用卡相连以充值）。100澳元以下的所有消费都只需“点击即转”（Tap & Go），超过100澳元的则需要“点击并[输入您的pin码]”。
Eliminates the handling of disease carrying cash and coins )most important with the covid-19 pandemic), saves time, shops don’t need to have a change float or go to the bank to make deposits. It is a win, win for everybody!
不携带现金和硬币可以避免接触病毒（这在大流行期间很重要），既节省了时间，商店也不需要找零或去银行存款。对每个人来说，这都是一场多赢！
Of course, notes & coins haven’t been phased out completely, but more and more shops have signs saying “Credit or Debit cards only. No cash!”. Ten or so years ago,, you’d occasionally see a sign “Cash Only” here in Sydney, but such seem to have disappeared completely. Some shops may require notes or coins for purchases under AU$5, but they seem to be disappearing also.
当然，纸币和硬币还没有完全被淘汰，但越来越多的商店都有“只能用信用卡或借记卡，不收现金”的标牌。大约十年前，在悉尼你偶尔还能看到一个“只收现金”的店铺，但现在似乎已经完全消失了。一些商店可能还收5澳元以下的纸币或硬币，但它们似乎也在消失。
Back in 2003 I spent a few months travelling the hinterlands of southern Europe. Most of the time I used my Australian debit or credit cards. Currency conversion was automatic. On the rare occasion I needed cash, I used an ATM!
早在2003年，我花了几个月的时间在南欧腹地旅行。大多数时候我用我的澳大利亚借记卡或信用卡，货币是自动兑换的，我很少有需要现金的时候！
The USA banking system appears to be very technologically backward (though it depends on the bank). People (especially Australians) are highly mobile world travellers, so don’t want to waste time and money using person to person banking, to access cash. Even more so, they don’t want to be carrying around large sums of cash.
美国的银行系统似乎在技术上非常落后（尽管这取决于银行）。人们（尤其是澳大利亚人）是高度流动的世界旅行者，所以不想浪费时间和金钱去使用银行以获取现金。更重要的是，他们不想随身携带大量现金。
Unlike people in the USA most of whom haven’t a passport, and haven’t the money to travel outside of their region, the PRC (China) has a thriving and growing middle class, who have the freedom to travel internationally. They don’t want to be bothered with currency conversions or the annoyance of searching for an ATM.
Get with the 21st century. Cash and coin are obsolete, and it has nothing to do with the US$!
与大多数美国人没有护照，也没有钱出国旅行不同，中国有一个蓬勃发展的中产阶级，他们有国际旅行的自由，他们不想为货币兑换或寻找自动取款机而烦恼。
迎接21世纪吧，现金和硬币已经过时了，但这和美元无关！
Manix Wong
But The Reserve Bank of Australia is taking precautionary measures not to dabble into Central bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and does not believe there is currently a strong policy case for issuing a CBDC in Australia
It just happened last month
So what’s really going on in Australia?
但澳大利亚储备银行正在采取预防措施，不涉足中央银行数字货币（CBDC），而且认为目前在澳大利亚发行数字货币的政策理由并不充分。
这是上个月才发生的。
所以，澳大利亚到底发生了什么？
Jim Sadler
When the transition to digital currency is complete , people will be completely subject to mercy of the government . If you don’t hold it ,you don’t own it .
当向数字货币的过渡完成之后，人们将完全受到政府的控制。如果你不支持政府，你将无法拥有货币。
Paul Clifford
Grow up and drop your infantile conspiracy theories promoted by the money exchangers!
The move to direct electronic transfer, has nothing to do with the government, but private sector and consumer demand. Nothing has changed on monetary policy, other than it is more cost efficient and secure to use electronic transfer rather than symbolic tokens (cash & coin).
Pointedly, worldwide it is costing more to produce coin than the face value of the coin, and because of technology it has becoming increasing easier to counterfeit notes, especially the “green back” = USA dollar! For decades, advanced economies have been using plastic money especially sized, coloured, embossed and encoded to prevent counterfeiting and to make life easier for visually impaired people. The processes to produce these are expensive.
Electronic funds transfer is not only a cheaper and more convenient form of money exchange, it is also more secure!
成熟点，放下你的那些由货币兑换商鼓吹的幼稚的阴谋论吧！
转向直接电子转账的举措与政府无关，它只与私营部门和消费者的需求有关。除了使用电子转账比使用象征性的代币（现金和硬币）更具成本效益和安全性外，货币政策没有发生任何变化。
值得一提的是，在世界范围内，生产硬币的成本比硬币的面值还高，而且由于技术的进步，伪造纸币（尤其是绿纸）正变得越来越容易！几十年来，发达的经济体一直在使用有专门的大小、颜色、雕刻和编码以防止造假并使视力受损的人生活更方便的塑料货币，但生产这些货币的过程是很昂贵的。
电子资金转账不仅是一种更便宜、更方便的货币兑换形式，而且更安全！
John Fenn
You can always guy gold and put it under your bed. The true downside of a cashless society is that the government and the banks can and will impose taxes and transfer fees on EVERY transaction.
你可以把金子藏在床底下。无现金社会的真正缺点是政府和银行可以而且将对每笔交易征收税款和交易费。
