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QA问答：假如中国和俄罗斯想要彻底抛弃美元的话要花多久？
How long will it take China and Russia to dexe the US dollar?
译文简介
QA讨论：假如中国和俄罗斯想要彻底抛弃美元的话要花多久？
正文翻译
QA讨论：假如中国和俄罗斯想要彻底抛弃美元的话要花多久？
评论翻译
Paul Denlinger
It's not up to China and Russia; it's up to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.
这轮不到中国和俄罗斯考虑，这要看沙特阿拉伯和海湾国家怎么想。
If Saudi Arabia' s Prince Muhammad bin Salman decides he wants Saudi Arabia to be paid in Chinese yuan for its oil, youcan expect the US's Operation Saudi Freedom to start tomorrow.
如果沙特阿拉伯的王储穆罕默德.本.萨勒曼决定，他希望沙特阿拉伯用人民币结算自己卖出去的石油，那么你明天就可以看
见美国来一 场沙特自由行动了。
Sathis Kumar
Hahaha... Operation Saudi Freedom.. that's a good. When it comes to hypocricy, America takes the gold silver and bronze
哈哈哈....沙特自由行动...说得好。说到道貌岸然这个项目，美国永远是包揽金银铜的。
Darryl Shannon
But it seems to me that China does not want the yuan to be a global currency. Saudi Ara bia can't ask customers to pay in yuan because no one outside of China holds yuan, by design of China, since they don't want their currency to be subject to outside control.
但是在我看来，中国似乎不希望人民币成为世界货币。沙特阿拉伯不能让消费者全都用人民币支付，因为除了中国之外没有别
的国家持有人民币，而这是中国有意为之的，中国不希望他们的货币成为境外势力控制的把柄。
For other customers to hold yuan, China would have to import goods and pay for them with yuan. In other words, run a trad
e deficit, which is obviously exactly opposite China's economic policy for decades, which is to encourage exports and discourage imports.
对于其他消费者来说，想要持有人民币，中国就必须进口商品，然后用人民币来支付商品。换句话说，他们就需要贸易逆差,
但这完全与中国几十年以来的经济政策相违背,那就是鼓励出口，阻止进口。
The USdollar is a global currency because we run a trade deficit, we import more goods than we export and pay with dollars. China is not going to follow this model.
美元能够成为世界货币，就是因为美国一直都处于贸易逆差的地位,我们进口的商品比我们出口的更多,并且我们用美元来支
付。但中国不会遵循这个模式。
Paul Denlinger
This situation is beginning to change with the introduction of the digital yuan.
随着数字人民币的采纳，情况正在发生变化。
The digital yuan is being introduced first in Asia in the RCEP region maimly for trade.
数字人民币首先在亚洲的RCEP地区开始使用，主要就是为了贸易。
I agree that China does not want the yuan to become the global reserve currency, because it means having a large military to act as enforcer for W all Street.
我同意，中国不愿意让人民币成为世界储备货币，因为这意味着要拥有一支规模庞大的军队来充当华尔街的打手。
Thien Dang
China is holding large amount of USD and be able to manipulate USD against RMB without problem. The same will be appliedif too much RMB outside China then other countries can do the same. I think Japanese economic collapsed because of this reason by having too much Japanese dollar on global market.
中国持有大量的美元，有能力轻松地调整美元对人民币的汇率。如果海外有太多的人民币的话,那么其他国家也可以对人民币
这么做。我觉得日本的经济崩溃的原因，就是国际市场上有太多的日元了。
China has learnt from Japan problem how to prevent from economic collapsed by currency manipulation by others. As the same token Japan has learnt from China how to withstand US trade war. That's why Japan is increasing holding USD and on another hand cllcting Japanese dollars back.
中国已经从日本那里学会了该如何避免其他国家货币操纵导致的经济崩溃。与此同时，日本也从中国学会了如何守住美国的贸
易战。因此日本正在增加自己的美元持有量，与此同时也在收回世界各地的日元。
Remember USD currency fighting is many to one, which means the W estern group will dump all unlike currency at once, not 0nly US and another currency fighting each other.
要记住，对美元战争是一场多对一的战争，这意味着西方团体会一 下子把所有不喜欢的货币都放弃掉，而不只是美元和其他某
个货币的互相争斗。
Because of not much of RMB on global market, the currency fighting tactic does not work on China. At worse China can use USD to buy back all RMB on global market.
因为全球市场上的人民币数量并不多，目前的战斗战术对中国并不适用。最糟糕的情况下，中国也可以用美元把世界市场上的
所有人民币都买回来。
BTW RCEP is just started and BRI is still in warming up, and US has a fleet of military at door step as well as interferi
ng in to China internal matters such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and Western China. And the world is still fighting on both softand hard power.
顺便一提, R(CFP刚刚开始，一带一路仍然在上升期，美国还有一支舰队停在家门口,并且在台湾、香港和中国西部的问题上一
直进行着干预。此外世界还仍然在与软实力、硬实力作斗争。
Therefore it's need not to hurry for RMB to float in to global market, except for friendly countries such as Russia, Pakistan, Iran and a few but with limited amount approved between central banks. Which means China is heavily protected RMB from out flowing.
因此没有必要急着让人民币充满世界市场，除了对俄罗斯、123、伊朗等友好国家，以及少数央行之间数量有限的转账之
外。这意味着中国对人民币外流采取着严防死守的态度。
Currency is a economy blood, too much bleeding will lead economy in to trouble.
货币就是经济的血液，流太多血就会导致经济出问题。
Darryl Shannon
I don't think that's it. The“global reserve currency" just means that there are lots of dollars held outside the US.
我不觉得仅仅如此。“全球 储备货币”仅仅意味着美国国外有大量的美元。
This is good for the US in the sense that we paid for stuff with dollars, which we can create by fiat, and got the imported goods, and then the dollars left our economy and never came back, aka“Seigniorage - Wikipedia". But it also means atrade deficit, it means it's harder to export US goods than otherwise.
这对于美国来说是件好事，因为我们用美元购买产品，而我们可以用政府信用来制造美元，然后进口产品,然后美元就离开了
我们的经济，永远也不会回来，也就是铸币税。但这同时也意味着贸易逆差,意味着美国的货物将会更难出口。
It also means that US currency is subject to outside forces for good or bad. Here we are, discussing whether certain countries will or will not accept payment in dollars and what that will mean for the US economy.
这同时也意味着,美国的货币要受到海外力量的掌控，不论好还是坏。因此我们才在这里讨论，某些国家会不会接受美元作为
支付手段，以及这对于美国的经济有什么影响。
China's policy has been the opposite, to not allow yuan to leave the country. China has the second-largest military in the world, so the size of the military has nothing to do with reserve currency status.
但中国的政策却一直都是相反的，他们不允许人民币离开国家，中国拥有世界上第二大的军队，所以军队的体量和储备货币的
地位是无关的。
The US has deliberately encourages export of US dollars, which is why there are all these reserve dollars around the world. China has deliberately made export of Chinese Yuan extremely difficult/impossible. So yuan will never be a reserve currency unless China reverses this economic policy, which seems unlikely given how successful it has been.
美国一直在有意地鼓励美元出口,因此世界各地才会拥有大量的美元储备。中国则有意地让人民币的出口变得极端困难甚至没
有可能，所以人民币将永远不会成为储备货币，除非中国改变这种经济政策，但是无论这个经济政策之前多么成功,似乎这都是
不可能的事。
Paul Denlinger
It is about enforcement because the US military has acted as the enforcer for Wall Street business interests for more than the past century.
重点是强制手段，因为美国军队在过去至少-个世纪以来， 一直都在扮演华尔街企业的强粥手段的角色。
The only American ever to win the Congressional Medal of Honor twice, General Smedley Butler, even wrote a book about itin the 1930s titled“War is a Racket". Its copyright is expired, so you can read it for free. Look it up. The only difference was that Smedley Butler fought in China for Standard oil interests and then fought in central American for United Fruit Company interests.
唯一一位获得过两次国 会荣誉勋章的美国人，斯梅德利。巴特勒将军，在上世纪30年代甚至写了一本书,名叫《战争是- -场闹
剧》。这本书的版权已经过期了，因此你可以免费阅读。你可以去看看。唯一的区别就是斯梅德利.巴特勒先是在中国为标准石
油公司的利益斗争，后来又在中美洲为联合水果公司的利益作斗争。
The danger for the US now is that other countries are getting wise to the fact that by buying US debt and US currency, they are supporting the American lifestyle so that Americans can continue to enjoy a standard of living which they have NOT earned through their own work.
美国现在面临的危险，就是其他国家对于购买美国债券和美国货币就是支持美式生活方式，让美国人能够继续享受他们付出的
工作所配不上的生活这件事更加明白了。
The way to break this cycle and make the world a fairer place is to stop buying US debt and using US dollars, and using other currencies. Basically, the world has been giving Americans revolving credit which they don t deserve,and it is timeto look for other places to put their hard earned money.
打破这个循环，让世界变得更加公平的方式，就是停止购买美国的债权、停止使用美元，并且使用其他货币。总地来说，全世
界- -直在为美国提供他们配不上的信用，因此是时候把他们辛辛苦苦挣来的钱仿造别的地方了。
Andrew Qian
Darryl is correct in that you need to have large trade deficits to enable this currency overvaluation from being thereserve currency.
Darryl说得对，你得先有大规模的贸易逆差,才能让货币成为储备货币并且被过高估值。
I think where the subtlety comes in is that China can send RMB to oil producers and then have it come back elsewhere. That would increase the value of the RMB if it doesn't need to be exchanged for USD.
我觉得中国可以巧妙地通过把人民币送到石油生产国的手里，然后通过其他手段再收回这些货币的方式来解决这个问题。这样
他们就可以在不需要兑换成美元的前提下提升人民币的价值了。
Paul Denlinger
It looks to me like RMB will be used to pay for oil, and then it will come back in the form of Chinese arms purchases from the ME countries, because Chinese arms sales all over the world are picking up dramatically.
在我看来人民币很有可能会拿来购买石油，然后以中国向中东国家出售军火的方式流动回来，因为中国在世界各地范围内的军
售正在大规模上升。.
Time for Operation Chinese Freedom!
是时候发动中国自由行动了!
Daniel Kalchev
Right. China exports more, so they will suck back yuans. Then in order to get yuan to buy their stuff, others will have to deposit other currencies, in China This way China can control the exchange rate for the yuan, and avoid their stuff being too cheap for others, like the US and EU who print fiat money.
没错。中国出口更多,所以他们就会把人民币吸回来。然后为了拿到人民币来购买他们的东西，其他国家就得把别的货币存储
在中国。这样中国就能控制人民币的汇率，避免自己的商品对别的国家来说太便宜,就像美国和欧盟这些印刷法定货币的国家一
样。
Pretty much what Russia is doing recently.
这和俄罗斯最近在做的事情差不多-样。
Ben Lu
Reserve currency is needed by most countries for international trade purposes which are conducted mainly in USD, especially energy and raw material resources. If the world's major trading nations work to use many more currencies than today, USD invariably would be less needed as reserved currency.
绝大多数进行国际贸易的国家就需要储备货币，国际贸易主要由美元结算，尤其是在能源和原材料方面。如果世界上的主要贸
易国家决定采用比今天种类更多的货币，那么美元作为储备货币被需要的程度将无可辩驳地下降。
Darryl Shannon
Yes, but the main other reserve currency is the Euro (sucessor to Deutschmark), with much smaller presence of British pound and Japanese Yen.
没错，但是另一种储备货币的备选项是欧元(德国马克的继承者) ,此外还有少量的英镑和日元。
The likely outcome is that the dollar will slowly be a smaller and smaller percentage of reserve currency.
最有可能的结果就是美元作为储备货币的占比将会越来越小。
A dollar collapse is possible if the US has an economic crisis, but the crisis will cause the dollar to lose value, not the other way around A purely financial crisis caused by countries all over the world just changing policy overnight is na
tionalist wishful thinking,
如果美国遭遇经济危机，那么美元的崩溃是有可能发生的，但是这种危机将会导致美元贬值，而不是反过来。世界所有国家突
然改变政策导致的纯粹的金融危机，只是出于民族主义的美好愿望而已。
And of course, China doesn' t want to intentionally cause a dollar decline because that would wipe out the value of theirenormous dollar holdings
而且当然了，中国是不可能蓄意造成-场美元贬值的， 因为这会把他们自己持有的巨额美元储备的价值-笔勾销。
Maybe China's might someday plan on intentionally creating a financial crisis with the idea that they will end up stronger afterward, but it seems a very risky move,
或许中国某一天会计划开展-场金融危机，认为他们在经历了危机之后会变得更强，但是这似乎是风险很大的决定。上的，
Economics is not a zero-sum game. China's current economic policy seems to be working very successf ully, so what is their incentive to suddenly change and pursue a confrontational economic strategy?
经济学不是什么零和游戏，中国当代的经济政策看上去非常成功,所以他们突然改变道路，追求一种对峙性的经济战略，其动
机又在哪里呢?
I guess some unavoidable political/ military crisis could cause an economic war, with the economic losses to China just being counted as part of the cost of the war. But the other way around seems unlikely.
我觉得不可避免的政治/军事危机才可能导致经济战争，中国所遭受的经济损失被算作这场战争的一部分。但是反过来的情况
实在不太可能发生。
Ben Lu
Because of western sanctions, Russia today already starts the ball rolling by requiring Roubles for its gas. ReportedlyRoubles for R ussia oil and other raw materials are also in the pipeline.
由于西方的制裁，今天的俄罗斯已经开始通过要求用卢布支付天然气的方式来着手做这件事了。据报道，俄罗斯出口的石油和
其他原材料用卢布结算也已经提上议程了。
The Russian move would likely serve as example for others to do likewise and be independent from USD, Ero...and free from western currencues hegemony.
俄罗斯人的行动很有可能会作为榜样被其他国家效仿，从而从美元、欧元和西方货币霸权之中独立。
Kok Yun Lim
The turning point is Saudi Arabia and OPEC which currencies are to be used for paying Oil. Lately, Saudi Arabiaaccepted"Yuan* business transactions.
转折点就是沙特阿拉伯和OPEC认为要用什么货币来购买石油。最近，沙特阿拉伯接受了用人民币来进行贸易。
Toderel Adrian- Aurel
why house of saudi and not the iran neigborhor? for me look like a more safe baby first steps of e-yuan!
为什么是沙特王室，而不是他们的伊朗邻国呢?在我来看，后者反而是电子人民币迈出第一步更安全的地方啊!
Jran+Afganistan +Pakistan economic block with increased ties to China is a real thing!
伊朗，阿富汗和123的经济国家集团与中国之间的贸易纽带越来越多，这是实打实的!
Martin Vratny
Nah.
不一定。
More likely, a long-lost heir to the Throne would show up all of a sudden and it would be the duty of the US to maintainpeace and put a stop to the civil war.
更有可能的是，一 位失踪多年的王位继承人- 夜之间出现，然后就是美国的责任去站出来维持世界和平，阻止内战发生了。
Pavel Fekula
AlI MBS has to do is buy S-400s and that threat goes away..
萨勒曼王储需要做的仅仅是购买S 400而已， 这样威胁就没了....
Roland R uben
Saudi Arabia needs America because of their number one nemesis, Iran. Both are fighting for dominance in M iddle East fordecades since the revolution 1979. Iran nowaday has much more military power than SA. The only one can prevent Iran from coming to SA is USA. I dont think SA will ditch USA so easily.
沙特阿拉伯需要美国，因为他们的头号大敌伊朗。自1979年的革命以来，两国都在为称霸中东而斗争。今天的伊朗所拥有的军
事力量比沙特阿拉伯更加强大。唯能够阻止伊朗攻打沙特的就是美国。我不觉得沙特会如此轻易地放弃美国。
Patrick Koh
Watch the media. Suddenly they may discover a medi state that is bad, unfree, undemocratic, authoritarian, unfair, unjustwith a terrible HR record, and not in keeping with international norms. The sleeper orgs and potential dissidents will start getting more USD and creating freedumb activists and heroes.
盯紧点儿媒体吧。他们可能突然之间就要发现- - 一个名叫沙特阿拉伯的邪恶，不自由，不民主，集权，不公平，不公正的中世纪国家，人权记录糟糕得一 塌糊涂，并且拒绝遵从国际社会的行为准则。休眠细胞和持异见者可能要拿更多的美元，开始制造一些自由行动家和英雄了。
Hope not.
希望不会发生这种事。
Overall, USD dominance will steadily decline in a financial evolution, but I doubt the money world would want a revolution.
不论如何，美元的霸权将会在一场金融进化中稳定地下降，但是我不知道有钱人的世界是否会欢迎这样的一场革命。
Juan N ufiez
Like Venezuela, that suddenly become democratic and capitalist after Russian invasion. It isjust a matter of stretching definitions.
和委内瑞拉一样，在俄罗斯入侵之后他们突然之间就变成一个民主的资本主义国家了。这只是修改定义的问题。
Zachary Reid
Iran, for one, would probably welcome that, In return the USA might suddenly discover ITran's good qualities.
比如说伊朗，就会很欢迎这个结果。美国可能就会突然发现伊朗的一些良好品质。
Nalini Koutha
Now india is plannint to buy russian oil in rouble and will the USA start operation india freedom ?
现在印度已经在计划用卢布购买俄罗斯石油了。美国是不是也要发动印度自由行动了?
Chen Yongqi [陈勇气]
Hahaha... very good one. They will want to liberate India from ruble oppression and the dangers of communism.
哈哈哈.-.太有意思了。美国人会想要把印度从卢布的压迫和共产主义的威胁中解放出来。
L (Luis) Figueroa
One has to wonder if a lightweight M iddle Eastern ruler in a nasty part of the world, who would have trouble defending his country without U.S. weapons and military assistance if Iran decided to make a run for his oil wealth, would have that kind political and economic power to determine the fate of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency? I for one have doubts,but stranger things have occurred.
我有点想不通，一个没什么重量的中东统治者,在世界的一一个脏乱差的角落里，要是伊朗决定为了他的石油财富拼-把的话，
他没有了美国的武器和军事援助连保护自己的国家都做不到，这样的一一个统治者竟然会有能够决定美元作为储蓄货币的政治和经济实力?我自己倒是有所疑虑，但是更诡异的事情也不是没有发生过。
Paul Denlinger
He has been refusing to answer Biden's phone calls. Same for UAE.
他已经在拒绝接听拜登的电话了。阿联酋也是一样。
L (Luis) Figneroa
True, but he did recently accept U.S. military systems to protect against attacks. Perhaps he understands that his kingdom is toast without the U.S. military assistance, at least for now,
没错，但是他最近却接收了美国的武器系统来保护自己。或许他也知道自己的王国要是没有了美国的军事协助就完蛋了，至少
目前如此。
Neale Johns
This military assistance seems to be unable to stop missiles, so perhaps Russian defence systems would be a better option
这种军事协助看起来没有能力挡住导弹，所以或许俄罗斯的防御系统是更好的选择。
L (Luis) Figueroa
Well, in the past other M iddle Eastern countries bought Russian SAM systems. Egypt comes to mind in their wars against Israel. I wonder how those systems performed?
过去其他的中东国家也买过俄罗斯的陆基反导系统。埃及在与以色列的战争中还用过呢。那套系统表现的怎么样啊?
Andrew Chang
They just had an OIC meeting I believe there will be candid discussion on the role of Arab and Arab countries and the Islamic world in the post USD world?台T 以
他们刚刚开过一场伊斯兰国家组织会议。我相信对于阿拉伯人，阿拉伯国家和伊斯兰世界在后美元世界中的位置,他们将会进
行坦率的交流吧?
Gene Haba
I say just let the US go back to being the major exporter of energy to the world. We already supply 40% of the worlds' fod. We have the assets for 500 years plus. Then let all the global energy poker players have at it with the winner take Texas hold-em. Fuck them all. And don't let the Chicoms buy any US farmland or farmer technology firms or invest in them.
要我说，干脆就让美国重新成为世界主要的能源输出国就好了。我们已经在供应世界食物的40%了。我们有能用五百多年的资
产。那么就让世界上所有的能源国家都来打一 场德州扑克吧。把他们都干烂。而且别再让中共购买美国的农地或者农业科技企业了，也不要让他们投资。
Paul Denlinger
Energy won' t employ many Americans.
能源是不会给太多的美国人带来就业的。
Or doesn't that matter to you?
还是说你不在乎这个?
All the energy exports you talk about are being phased out by renewable energy and nuclear energy.
你说的那些能源出口，全都慢慢被可再生能源和核能替代了。
Or haven't you thought of that?
还是说你没想过这个?
Tony Uguccioni
The day the USD looses global dominance is the day the world looses the global peace provided by one guy having, by far,this biggest stick.
美国失去全球霸权的那一天，就是全世界失去由一 个持有最大的大棒的人所提供的世界和平的那一 天。
Like it or not the European and Asian countries consistently went to war with eachother throughout history untill one day, someone had a big stick a asked people to provoke him..
不论你喜不喜欢，欧洲和亚洲国家在历史上- -直都在发生战争，直到某一 天，有个拿着大棒子的人站了出来，让别人去招惹他....
the USD was used as the foundation for global economic development and in return the US has more guns than people pointed at anyone looking to mess up the system.
美元就是全球经济发展的基石，作为回报，美国有比人还多的枪，指着所有想要把这一 套体制弄烂的人。
Guess how much this Bill is actually worth?
你猜猜这张纸币值多少钱?
2.7 Censl!!!
2.7美分!
Thats the Cost of the Paper , the Inks and the plate aggregated over several billions of dollars printed.
这就是这张纸，上面的墨，以及用于印刷几十亿美元的印刷版摊下来的成本。
This is just a piece of Paper - which is a Debt issued by the US Government tellingyou- THIS IS A DEBT AND I OWE YOU 100 DOLLARS EQUIVALENT OF MONETARY CLOUT
这只是一 张纸一 本质是美国政府给你的一份欠条，告诉你这是一 种张欠条，我欠你与100美元等值的货币影响力。
Since the 1970s - its not even lixed to Gold anymore.
自从上世纪70年代以来， 它甚至不再与黄金挂钩了。
So if you have 100 Million Dollars - it technically just means The US Government owes you 100 Million Dollars equivalent
of Monetary Clout.
所以，如果你拥有一亿美元，那么这仅仅意味着美国政府欠你与-亿美元等价的货币影响力。
So why is the Dollar regarded so powerful?
那么为什么美元被广泛认为如此有影响力呢?
Beause US has forced almost all the Commodities to be valued and traded only in US Dollars.
因为美国强迫所有商品都要仅使用美元来进行定价和贸易。
For instance when oil is priced at $ 120 a Barrel - it gives value to this 3 Cent picce of paper as 5/6th of a Barrel of
Oil!!!
举个例子，当石油的定价是120美元-桶的时候，那么这张3美分的纸片子就有了5/6桶石油的价值!
For instance when Gold is priced at $ 1900 an ounce - it gives value to this 3 Cent piece of paper as 1/19th of an Ounceof Gold !!
举个例子，当金价是每盎司1900美元的时候，那么这张3美分的纸片子就有了1/19盎司黄金的价值!
Since every Commodity is valued and traded in US Dollars, these worthless pieces of paper gain value and become the basis for more and more transactions
由于所有的商品都是由美元来定价、来贸易的，这些没有价值的纸片就有了价值，因此就成为了越来越多的交易的基右。
Using this Clout of the Dollar- US Treasury keeps on printing more and more and more pieces of paper because they contro I almost everything from Gold to Coal to Silver to N ickel to Oil to Gas.
通过美元的这种影响力，美国财政部就一直在印刷越来越多的小纸片， 因为他们控制着从黄金到煤炭到白银到镍到石油到天然
气的一切资源。
Your entire exchange rate in many cases is purely based on the USD exchange rate today.
今天，你的汇率在很多情况下就是完全基于美元的汇率的。
This is called DOLLAR HEGEMONY
这就叫做美元霸权。
Today when Russia sells oil。It first prices the oil in Dollars per Barrel and then converts it into Ruble
在今天，当俄罗斯销售石油的时候，他们要先把石油用美元定价,然后再把它换成卢布。
For instance - Today Oil is $ 120 a Barrel so Russia prices the OIl at 120* 83 = 9960 Rubles a Barrel
举个例子，今天的油价是120美元-桶，所以俄罗斯把石油定价在120*83 = 9960卢布- 桶的价格。
Imagine what would happen if this Pricing Stopped???
想象一下，当这种定价过程不再继续会发生什么?
Lets say Russia decides to price its Oil in Rubles.
举个例子，俄罗斯决定直接用卢布定价。
Lets say Russia calcuates its Expenses , Cost of Building Pipelines, Labour, Maintenance costs all in Rubles and decides to price its oil in Rubles
假如说俄罗斯算了一下开销， 建造管线的成本，劳动力的成本，维护的成本，都用卢布计算,然后直接用卢布进行定价。
Russia would price Oil in Rubles without needing to price the same in Dollars.
俄罗斯就会直接用卢布来给石油定价，不需要用美元再定一次价。
Russia could declare 8000 Rubles for 1 Barrel of Oil and now the Ruble becomes 1/8oooth a Barrel of oil in value
那么俄罗斯就可以给1桶石油定价8000卢布,现在- -卢布就拥有1800桶石油的价值了。
Russia could price all exports in R ubles and all Imports in domestic currencies, determine Exchange rates on a Trade -Trade basis and sell oil per those rates.
俄罗斯可以把所有的进出口商品都用卢布来标价了，用贸易作为基础来决定汇率,然后按照这些汇率来销售石油。
Now imagine Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela doing the same thing
现在再想象一下沙特阿拉伯，伊朗和委内瑞拉都做同样的事情。
Pricing their oil in domestic currencies based on their own De mand and Supply and not in US Dollars.
基于自己的需求和供给，用他们自2的货币来给石油定价，而不是用美元。
The 100 US Dollar Bill would no longer be 5/6 of a Barrel of oil
那么100美元的钞票就不再会有5/6桶石油的价值了。
Sure US produces a Lot of Oil as does Canada but US has printed too much money and the money printed is easily 10-12 times the value of the Oil,
当然美国会生产大量的石油，加拿大也会，但是美国已经印刷了太多的货币,这些印刷出来的货币轻轻松松能抵上石油价值的10-12倍。
So slowly the US dollar becomes mere pieces of paper globally
所以慢慢的，美元在世界范围内就会仅仅变成几张纸。
Now imagine China prices all their Exports in their own Yuan and settles exchange rate based on Mutual Trade???
现在想象一-下， 中国如果把所有的出口都用自己的人民币来结算，并且用双边贸易来决定汇率呢?
If All Oil and Gold Producing and any Commodity Exporting N ations priced their Oil in their own domestic currencies based on Domestic Demand and Supply
如果所有的石油和黃金输出国，以及任何出口商品的国家，都用自己的货币，基于国内的需求来给自己的石油等产品定价
If all Trade was done using Mutual Currency Swaps with no Currency (AKA Only Digital Currency)
如果所有贸易都用双边货币的掉期合约,不需要现金来支付(也就是说仅使用电子货币)
Then Dollar Hegemony could be ended comfortably.
那么美元霸权就可以舒舒服服地得到终结。
of course you should note - Saddam Hussein and Gadaffi could have been destroyed precisely because they were going on the same route.
当然你应该要记住，萨达姆.侯赛因和卡扎菲被毁灭，就是因为他们要走这条路。
US knows if this happens - THE DEATH WARRANT OF US WILL BE SIGNED.
美国知道，如果这种事情发生，那么美国的死期就到了。
So US will do whatever it takes to prevent it from happening
所以，美国为了阻止这种事情的发生将会不顾- -切。
It may be why US is so Anti Putin. My Guess is US realized one day Putin would price Gas and Oil in Rubles only and not in US Dollars.
或许因此美国才会如此的反普京。我猜美国已经意识到了，总有一天普京将会只用卢布来给天然气和石油定价，而不再用美元
So i think if Putin guaranteed that he would price all his oil and Gas in USD for the next 20 years - I think US will gif
thim Zelenskys Head in less than 10 days.
所以我认为，如果普京做出保证,他在接下来的20年里都只用美元来给自己的石油和天然气定价，那么我觉得美国会在十天之内把泽连斯基的脑袋交到他的手里的。
James Chrisholm
When all the countries do not have a balanced trade, how will money flow be determined in a multi-currency world? Say China sells more manufactured goods to R ussia than R ussia sels energy, food and commodities to China. China will run out of Rubles. Even when we use gold, some countries will run out of it sooner or later. hence a recycling mechanism is necessary for it to work.
当所有的国家都没有平衡的贸易的时候,货币将如何在-个多通货并行的世界里流通?比如说，如果中国向俄罗斯销售的制造品比俄罗斯卖过来的能源、食物和商品更多，那么中国就会没有卢布可用。就算用黄金,有些国家迟早也会把黄金花完的。因此一套回收体制是必要的。
It will probably herald an age of more equitable global prosperity ys one where all money goes to New York or London.
这或许会标志着更加平等的世界富裕的先驱，而不是所有钱都流向纽约和伦敦。
Robert Quek
Just on your para 1, China & Russia trade with each other. They have a currency swab agreement.
回答一下你的第一 段，中国和俄罗斯是彼此贸易的。他们有货币互换协议。
At pre-agreed interval, say one month, the two central banks settled the net difference. If net difference is Yuan, and R ussia does not have Yuan, the difference is converted into a Yuan debt
按照预先约定的周期，比如说一一个月， 两大央行将会结算贸易净差。如果净差在人民币这边，但俄罗斯没有人民币了，那么净差就会被转化成人民币的债务。
Or China may be repaid in Ruble, which it holds as foreign reserves, say in Russian bonds or in direct investments.
或者中国可以接受卢布的支付，然后将卢布作为外汇储备来持有,比如作为俄罗斯的债券，或者直接投资。
Technology has made it easy to deal in multi-country trade and in multi-currencies.
科学技术让多国家、多币种的贸易变得更加简单了。
Prasad Krishna
Wish all the importers pay the exporters in their country's currencies. No need to keep dollars for anyone. The dollar e xchange alone is screwing economies 3oomn people holding 8bn- 300 million at hostage and subservient. Dollar has to be supp orted by Gold or some asset.
我希望各大进口国都能用出口国的货币来支付。这样每个国家都用不着再留着美元了。美元兑换本身就在压榨各大经济体，3亿人把剩下的80亿人当做人质和仆从。美元应当得到黄金或者某种资产的支撑才行。
Ashutosh B hadauria
For sustainable global trade, we need a common currency backed by strong economy, free from government manipulation. USD is only currency at the moment which fulfill most of criteria for easy businesses.
为了可持续的世界贸易的进行，我们需要一个有着强大经济的共同货币的支持， 并且没有政府的干预。美元只是目前暂时的货币解决方案，它能够满足让生意做得更轻松的绝大多数要求。
To whatever extentwe bash US or Dollar hegemony, Dollar is not going to anywhere atleast another half a century.
不论我们怎么骂美国，骂美元霸权,美元肯定还能至少再坚持半个世纪。
Size of Russian economy doesn't give Ruble that strength and confidence to take on USD one on one.
俄罗斯经济的体量是不会给他们一对一单挑美元的实力和自信的。
British pound and Japanese yen are most suitable contender for replacing USD in global trade but they have already accept ed the US dominance.
英镑和日元是在世界贸易中替换美元的最合适的竞争者,但是他们已经接受了美国的霸权。
Then come to Chinese yuan- next big thing Backed by a strong economy plus $3 tillion+ as foreign reserves. Also unlike their British and Japanese counterparts, Chinese have ambitions to counter US dominance.
然后就是中国的人民币。下一个重量级货币。由强大的经济和三万亿美元以上的外汇储备支持着。而且不像英国和日本，中国人有反对美国霸权的野心。
But it is still longway to go for Chinese yuan, Trust is biggest issue. Unlike USD, yuan is still not free traded currenc
y and posses a greater risk for global trade incase of government manipulation.
但是对于人民币来说还要很长的- -段路要走。信任就是最大的问题。和美元不同的是，人民币仍然不是可以自由兑换的货币,并且有更大的受政府操纵的国际贸易风险。
Even Chinese the mselves using USD reserves to give Yuan stability and credibility.
中国人自己都在用美元储备来为人民币赋予稳定度和可信度。
James McCuvy
I understand that in history, these things don't happen all at once. We have 11% real inflation now, which is almost unh ceard of for us, probably it will be made worse by sanctions ,so perhaps there will be a period of multiple reserve currenc
我理解在历史上，这些事情是不会一下子发生的。 我们现在有11%的通货膨胀，这对于我们来说简直是闻所未闻,并且很可能在制裁之下情况会变得更糟,所以或许会有一段多重储备货币的时期。
Ashutosh Bhadauria
I agree that using currency as weapon against other countries, raising questions over US way of handling the crises.
我同意使用货币作为武器攻击其他国家，确实会让人对美国处理危机的方式产生质疑。
The way US unilaterally sanctioned the Russia, it hurting whole world because you don't have capacity and capabilities to .fill the vaccume.
美国单方面制裁俄罗斯的方式正在伤害全世界，因为你没有补充留下来的真空的能力。
World is more cautious than ever on dependency on USD and tallk of diversification is strongest in history. But the fact isyou can't replace USD overnight which has almost over 80% dependency as common currency for global trade.
全世界对于对美元的依赖正在变得史无前例的谨慎，并且对于货币多样化的呼声是史上最强的。但事实在于，你不能一夜之间就把美元这个占世界贸易总额80%以上的货币给换掉。
Most prominent solution is Yuan can be best alternative but since Chinese economy is export driven, it's not easy for China to pump more local currency out of china It will strengthen the Yuan and hurt Chinese badly.
人民币作为最强大的解决方案可以成为最好的替代选项，但是由于中国经济是出口驱动的，对于中国来说，把更多的本国货币泵到外国并不是一 件容易的事情。这会让人民币走强，严重伤害中国人的生活。
Even in IMFs SDR, USD has highest waitage. So even if world is agree, it still need time to to change the world border let's say another two or three dacedes if not less
就算是在IMF的SDR里，美元的权重也是最高的。所以就算全世界都同意,也要花时间来改变世界秩序，可能至少也要花三十年吧。
Deepak Yadav
India should definitely go for Mr.Putin and help him economically rather than supporting Comedian Zelensky and Democratic Junkies. The relations between India and R ussia are based on trust how can we trust American's who were responsible for spreading chaos in Ukraine by selling their weapons to Ukraine and get profits from sales of their weapons against Russia.
印度绝对应当支持普京先生,并且从经济上支持他，而不是支持泽连斯基这个喜剧人和支持民主的垃圾。印度和俄罗斯之间的关系基于信任，我们怎么能相信美国这些通过向乌克兰贩卖军火让他们打俄罗斯而获利，在乌克兰散播混乱的人呢?
"Karma" taught Zelensky very well and now he wants help from India, their people should ask Zelensky why did he dragged the people in the war which was impossible to win?
“因果报应”已经给泽连斯基上了很好的一刻,现在他们希望从印度得到帮助， 他们的人民应当问问泽连斯基，为什么他把人民拖入了一场不可能打赢的战争?
That's why Dollars are cheaper and useless than Trust
所以美元比信任更廉价，更没用。
Many European nations don't know about Indian foreign policy, that's quite a shame indeed!
很多欧洲国家都不知道印度的外交政策,对他们来说真的很可耻!
Daniel Augustine(UR)
The country with the largest military force will always have the most powerful currency
拥有最大武装部队的国家，永远将拥有最强大的货币。
Subrahmanyam M arripoodi
But the problem is - the US is the biggest market for everything that the humanity produces. She is the biggest consumer on the Earth. From the Arctic to Antarctica, From fruits to pharma
但是问题在于，美国是人类生产的一切事物的最大市场。她是地球上最大的消费者。从北极到南极，从水果到药物。
The US pays others for the supplies in dollars but not in the currency of the supplying country. (And most supplying coun tries are under the protective umbrella of the USA) So all countries have dollars in abundance but not any other currency with them. So they cannot pay for their imports in any currency other than the US dollar.
美国用美元支付其他国家提供的商品，而不用这些国家自己的货币(并且绝大多数个偶家都处于美国的保护伞之下)。所以所有国家都有大量的美元，但没有别的货币。所以他们除了美元之外，不能用别的货币来支付进口。
CONCLUSION :It is impossible to end the dollar hegemony in our lifetime, at least as long as it is deemed to be the most valuable legal tender in South Asia, a region where 1.8 billion people live.
结论:我们这辈子想要终结美元霸权是不可能的，只要它仍然是南亚这个18亿人口居住的地区最有价值的法律通货。
Exceptional scenario : Your fond wish will come true only if something serious and drastic happens to the USA
例外的情况:只有非常严重的事情发生到了美国头上,你们的- -厢情愿才会成真。
Vivekanand Singh
i don't think china would be benefit from Russia elling oil against ruble. Cos biggest lender of US govt is china. They
have the maximum holding of US govt bonds. So if USD plunges, biggest looser after US would be china
我不觉得中国会从俄罗斯用卢布结算石油这件事上获利。因为中国是美国最大的债权国。他们持有最大规模的美国政府债券。所以如果美元跌了，那么除了美国以外，最大的输家就是中国。
原文地址：https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-it-take-China-and-Russia-to-dexe-the-US-dollar
It's not up to China and Russia; it's up to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.
这轮不到中国和俄罗斯考虑，这要看沙特阿拉伯和海湾国家怎么想。
If Saudi Arabia' s Prince Muhammad bin Salman decides he wants Saudi Arabia to be paid in Chinese yuan for its oil, youcan expect the US's Operation Saudi Freedom to start tomorrow.
如果沙特阿拉伯的王储穆罕默德.本.萨勒曼决定，他希望沙特阿拉伯用人民币结算自己卖出去的石油，那么你明天就可以看
见美国来一 场沙特自由行动了。
Sathis Kumar
Hahaha... Operation Saudi Freedom.. that's a good. When it comes to hypocricy, America takes the gold silver and bronze
哈哈哈....沙特自由行动...说得好。说到道貌岸然这个项目，美国永远是包揽金银铜的。
Darryl Shannon
But it seems to me that China does not want the yuan to be a global currency. Saudi Ara bia can't ask customers to pay in yuan because no one outside of China holds yuan, by design of China, since they don't want their currency to be subject to outside control.
但是在我看来，中国似乎不希望人民币成为世界货币。沙特阿拉伯不能让消费者全都用人民币支付，因为除了中国之外没有别
的国家持有人民币，而这是中国有意为之的，中国不希望他们的货币成为境外势力控制的把柄。
For other customers to hold yuan, China would have to import goods and pay for them with yuan. In other words, run a trad
e deficit, which is obviously exactly opposite China's economic policy for decades, which is to encourage exports and discourage imports.
对于其他消费者来说，想要持有人民币，中国就必须进口商品，然后用人民币来支付商品。换句话说，他们就需要贸易逆差,
但这完全与中国几十年以来的经济政策相违背,那就是鼓励出口，阻止进口。
The USdollar is a global currency because we run a trade deficit, we import more goods than we export and pay with dollars. China is not going to follow this model.
美元能够成为世界货币，就是因为美国一直都处于贸易逆差的地位,我们进口的商品比我们出口的更多,并且我们用美元来支
付。但中国不会遵循这个模式。
Paul Denlinger
This situation is beginning to change with the introduction of the digital yuan.
随着数字人民币的采纳，情况正在发生变化。
The digital yuan is being introduced first in Asia in the RCEP region maimly for trade.
数字人民币首先在亚洲的RCEP地区开始使用，主要就是为了贸易。
I agree that China does not want the yuan to become the global reserve currency, because it means having a large military to act as enforcer for W all Street.
我同意，中国不愿意让人民币成为世界储备货币，因为这意味着要拥有一支规模庞大的军队来充当华尔街的打手。
Thien Dang
China is holding large amount of USD and be able to manipulate USD against RMB without problem. The same will be appliedif too much RMB outside China then other countries can do the same. I think Japanese economic collapsed because of this reason by having too much Japanese dollar on global market.
中国持有大量的美元，有能力轻松地调整美元对人民币的汇率。如果海外有太多的人民币的话,那么其他国家也可以对人民币
这么做。我觉得日本的经济崩溃的原因，就是国际市场上有太多的日元了。
China has learnt from Japan problem how to prevent from economic collapsed by currency manipulation by others. As the same token Japan has learnt from China how to withstand US trade war. That's why Japan is increasing holding USD and on another hand cllcting Japanese dollars back.
中国已经从日本那里学会了该如何避免其他国家货币操纵导致的经济崩溃。与此同时，日本也从中国学会了如何守住美国的贸
易战。因此日本正在增加自己的美元持有量，与此同时也在收回世界各地的日元。
Remember USD currency fighting is many to one, which means the W estern group will dump all unlike currency at once, not 0nly US and another currency fighting each other.
要记住，对美元战争是一场多对一的战争，这意味着西方团体会一 下子把所有不喜欢的货币都放弃掉，而不只是美元和其他某
个货币的互相争斗。
Because of not much of RMB on global market, the currency fighting tactic does not work on China. At worse China can use USD to buy back all RMB on global market.
因为全球市场上的人民币数量并不多，目前的战斗战术对中国并不适用。最糟糕的情况下，中国也可以用美元把世界市场上的
所有人民币都买回来。
BTW RCEP is just started and BRI is still in warming up, and US has a fleet of military at door step as well as interferi
ng in to China internal matters such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and Western China. And the world is still fighting on both softand hard power.
顺便一提, R(CFP刚刚开始，一带一路仍然在上升期，美国还有一支舰队停在家门口,并且在台湾、香港和中国西部的问题上一
直进行着干预。此外世界还仍然在与软实力、硬实力作斗争。
Therefore it's need not to hurry for RMB to float in to global market, except for friendly countries such as Russia, Pakistan, Iran and a few but with limited amount approved between central banks. Which means China is heavily protected RMB from out flowing.
因此没有必要急着让人民币充满世界市场，除了对俄罗斯、123、伊朗等友好国家，以及少数央行之间数量有限的转账之
外。这意味着中国对人民币外流采取着严防死守的态度。
Currency is a economy blood, too much bleeding will lead economy in to trouble.
货币就是经济的血液，流太多血就会导致经济出问题。
Darryl Shannon
I don't think that's it. The“global reserve currency" just means that there are lots of dollars held outside the US.
我不觉得仅仅如此。“全球 储备货币”仅仅意味着美国国外有大量的美元。
This is good for the US in the sense that we paid for stuff with dollars, which we can create by fiat, and got the imported goods, and then the dollars left our economy and never came back, aka“Seigniorage - Wikipedia". But it also means atrade deficit, it means it's harder to export US goods than otherwise.
这对于美国来说是件好事，因为我们用美元购买产品，而我们可以用政府信用来制造美元，然后进口产品,然后美元就离开了
我们的经济，永远也不会回来，也就是铸币税。但这同时也意味着贸易逆差,意味着美国的货物将会更难出口。
It also means that US currency is subject to outside forces for good or bad. Here we are, discussing whether certain countries will or will not accept payment in dollars and what that will mean for the US economy.
这同时也意味着,美国的货币要受到海外力量的掌控，不论好还是坏。因此我们才在这里讨论，某些国家会不会接受美元作为
支付手段，以及这对于美国的经济有什么影响。
China's policy has been the opposite, to not allow yuan to leave the country. China has the second-largest military in the world, so the size of the military has nothing to do with reserve currency status.
但中国的政策却一直都是相反的，他们不允许人民币离开国家，中国拥有世界上第二大的军队，所以军队的体量和储备货币的
地位是无关的。
The US has deliberately encourages export of US dollars, which is why there are all these reserve dollars around the world. China has deliberately made export of Chinese Yuan extremely difficult/impossible. So yuan will never be a reserve currency unless China reverses this economic policy, which seems unlikely given how successful it has been.
美国一直在有意地鼓励美元出口,因此世界各地才会拥有大量的美元储备。中国则有意地让人民币的出口变得极端困难甚至没
有可能，所以人民币将永远不会成为储备货币，除非中国改变这种经济政策，但是无论这个经济政策之前多么成功,似乎这都是
不可能的事。
Paul Denlinger
It is about enforcement because the US military has acted as the enforcer for Wall Street business interests for more than the past century.
重点是强制手段，因为美国军队在过去至少-个世纪以来， 一直都在扮演华尔街企业的强粥手段的角色。
The only American ever to win the Congressional Medal of Honor twice, General Smedley Butler, even wrote a book about itin the 1930s titled“War is a Racket". Its copyright is expired, so you can read it for free. Look it up. The only difference was that Smedley Butler fought in China for Standard oil interests and then fought in central American for United Fruit Company interests.
唯一一位获得过两次国 会荣誉勋章的美国人，斯梅德利。巴特勒将军，在上世纪30年代甚至写了一本书,名叫《战争是- -场闹
剧》。这本书的版权已经过期了，因此你可以免费阅读。你可以去看看。唯一的区别就是斯梅德利.巴特勒先是在中国为标准石
油公司的利益斗争，后来又在中美洲为联合水果公司的利益作斗争。
The danger for the US now is that other countries are getting wise to the fact that by buying US debt and US currency, they are supporting the American lifestyle so that Americans can continue to enjoy a standard of living which they have NOT earned through their own work.
美国现在面临的危险，就是其他国家对于购买美国债券和美国货币就是支持美式生活方式，让美国人能够继续享受他们付出的
工作所配不上的生活这件事更加明白了。
The way to break this cycle and make the world a fairer place is to stop buying US debt and using US dollars, and using other currencies. Basically, the world has been giving Americans revolving credit which they don t deserve,and it is timeto look for other places to put their hard earned money.
打破这个循环，让世界变得更加公平的方式，就是停止购买美国的债权、停止使用美元，并且使用其他货币。总地来说，全世
界- -直在为美国提供他们配不上的信用，因此是时候把他们辛辛苦苦挣来的钱仿造别的地方了。
Andrew Qian
Darryl is correct in that you need to have large trade deficits to enable this currency overvaluation from being thereserve currency.
Darryl说得对，你得先有大规模的贸易逆差,才能让货币成为储备货币并且被过高估值。
I think where the subtlety comes in is that China can send RMB to oil producers and then have it come back elsewhere. That would increase the value of the RMB if it doesn't need to be exchanged for USD.
我觉得中国可以巧妙地通过把人民币送到石油生产国的手里，然后通过其他手段再收回这些货币的方式来解决这个问题。这样
他们就可以在不需要兑换成美元的前提下提升人民币的价值了。
Paul Denlinger
It looks to me like RMB will be used to pay for oil, and then it will come back in the form of Chinese arms purchases from the ME countries, because Chinese arms sales all over the world are picking up dramatically.
在我看来人民币很有可能会拿来购买石油，然后以中国向中东国家出售军火的方式流动回来，因为中国在世界各地范围内的军
售正在大规模上升。.
Time for Operation Chinese Freedom!
是时候发动中国自由行动了!
Daniel Kalchev
Right. China exports more, so they will suck back yuans. Then in order to get yuan to buy their stuff, others will have to deposit other currencies, in China This way China can control the exchange rate for the yuan, and avoid their stuff being too cheap for others, like the US and EU who print fiat money.
没错。中国出口更多,所以他们就会把人民币吸回来。然后为了拿到人民币来购买他们的东西，其他国家就得把别的货币存储
在中国。这样中国就能控制人民币的汇率，避免自己的商品对别的国家来说太便宜,就像美国和欧盟这些印刷法定货币的国家一
样。
Pretty much what Russia is doing recently.
这和俄罗斯最近在做的事情差不多-样。
Ben Lu
Reserve currency is needed by most countries for international trade purposes which are conducted mainly in USD, especially energy and raw material resources. If the world's major trading nations work to use many more currencies than today, USD invariably would be less needed as reserved currency.
绝大多数进行国际贸易的国家就需要储备货币，国际贸易主要由美元结算，尤其是在能源和原材料方面。如果世界上的主要贸
易国家决定采用比今天种类更多的货币，那么美元作为储备货币被需要的程度将无可辩驳地下降。
Darryl Shannon
Yes, but the main other reserve currency is the Euro (sucessor to Deutschmark), with much smaller presence of British pound and Japanese Yen.
没错，但是另一种储备货币的备选项是欧元(德国马克的继承者) ,此外还有少量的英镑和日元。
The likely outcome is that the dollar will slowly be a smaller and smaller percentage of reserve currency.
最有可能的结果就是美元作为储备货币的占比将会越来越小。
A dollar collapse is possible if the US has an economic crisis, but the crisis will cause the dollar to lose value, not the other way around A purely financial crisis caused by countries all over the world just changing policy overnight is na
tionalist wishful thinking,
如果美国遭遇经济危机，那么美元的崩溃是有可能发生的，但是这种危机将会导致美元贬值，而不是反过来。世界所有国家突
然改变政策导致的纯粹的金融危机，只是出于民族主义的美好愿望而已。
And of course, China doesn' t want to intentionally cause a dollar decline because that would wipe out the value of theirenormous dollar holdings
而且当然了，中国是不可能蓄意造成-场美元贬值的， 因为这会把他们自己持有的巨额美元储备的价值-笔勾销。
Maybe China's might someday plan on intentionally creating a financial crisis with the idea that they will end up stronger afterward, but it seems a very risky move,
或许中国某一天会计划开展-场金融危机，认为他们在经历了危机之后会变得更强，但是这似乎是风险很大的决定。上的，
Economics is not a zero-sum game. China's current economic policy seems to be working very successf ully, so what is their incentive to suddenly change and pursue a confrontational economic strategy?
经济学不是什么零和游戏，中国当代的经济政策看上去非常成功,所以他们突然改变道路，追求一种对峙性的经济战略，其动
机又在哪里呢?
I guess some unavoidable political/ military crisis could cause an economic war, with the economic losses to China just being counted as part of the cost of the war. But the other way around seems unlikely.
我觉得不可避免的政治/军事危机才可能导致经济战争，中国所遭受的经济损失被算作这场战争的一部分。但是反过来的情况
实在不太可能发生。
Ben Lu
Because of western sanctions, Russia today already starts the ball rolling by requiring Roubles for its gas. ReportedlyRoubles for R ussia oil and other raw materials are also in the pipeline.
由于西方的制裁，今天的俄罗斯已经开始通过要求用卢布支付天然气的方式来着手做这件事了。据报道，俄罗斯出口的石油和
其他原材料用卢布结算也已经提上议程了。
The Russian move would likely serve as example for others to do likewise and be independent from USD, Ero...and free from western currencues hegemony.
俄罗斯人的行动很有可能会作为榜样被其他国家效仿，从而从美元、欧元和西方货币霸权之中独立。
Kok Yun Lim
The turning point is Saudi Arabia and OPEC which currencies are to be used for paying Oil. Lately, Saudi Arabiaaccepted"Yuan* business transactions.
转折点就是沙特阿拉伯和OPEC认为要用什么货币来购买石油。最近，沙特阿拉伯接受了用人民币来进行贸易。
Toderel Adrian- Aurel
why house of saudi and not the iran neigborhor? for me look like a more safe baby first steps of e-yuan!
为什么是沙特王室，而不是他们的伊朗邻国呢?在我来看，后者反而是电子人民币迈出第一步更安全的地方啊!
Jran+Afganistan +Pakistan economic block with increased ties to China is a real thing!
伊朗，阿富汗和123的经济国家集团与中国之间的贸易纽带越来越多，这是实打实的!
Martin Vratny
Nah.
不一定。
More likely, a long-lost heir to the Throne would show up all of a sudden and it would be the duty of the US to maintainpeace and put a stop to the civil war.
更有可能的是，一 位失踪多年的王位继承人- 夜之间出现，然后就是美国的责任去站出来维持世界和平，阻止内战发生了。
Pavel Fekula
AlI MBS has to do is buy S-400s and that threat goes away..
萨勒曼王储需要做的仅仅是购买S 400而已， 这样威胁就没了....
Roland R uben
Saudi Arabia needs America because of their number one nemesis, Iran. Both are fighting for dominance in M iddle East fordecades since the revolution 1979. Iran nowaday has much more military power than SA. The only one can prevent Iran from coming to SA is USA. I dont think SA will ditch USA so easily.
沙特阿拉伯需要美国，因为他们的头号大敌伊朗。自1979年的革命以来，两国都在为称霸中东而斗争。今天的伊朗所拥有的军
事力量比沙特阿拉伯更加强大。唯能够阻止伊朗攻打沙特的就是美国。我不觉得沙特会如此轻易地放弃美国。
Patrick Koh
Watch the media. Suddenly they may discover a medi state that is bad, unfree, undemocratic, authoritarian, unfair, unjustwith a terrible HR record, and not in keeping with international norms. The sleeper orgs and potential dissidents will start getting more USD and creating freedumb activists and heroes.
盯紧点儿媒体吧。他们可能突然之间就要发现- - 一个名叫沙特阿拉伯的邪恶，不自由，不民主，集权，不公平，不公正的中世纪国家，人权记录糟糕得一 塌糊涂，并且拒绝遵从国际社会的行为准则。休眠细胞和持异见者可能要拿更多的美元，开始制造一些自由行动家和英雄了。
Hope not.
希望不会发生这种事。
Overall, USD dominance will steadily decline in a financial evolution, but I doubt the money world would want a revolution.
不论如何，美元的霸权将会在一场金融进化中稳定地下降，但是我不知道有钱人的世界是否会欢迎这样的一场革命。
Juan N ufiez
Like Venezuela, that suddenly become democratic and capitalist after Russian invasion. It isjust a matter of stretching definitions.
和委内瑞拉一样，在俄罗斯入侵之后他们突然之间就变成一个民主的资本主义国家了。这只是修改定义的问题。
Zachary Reid
Iran, for one, would probably welcome that, In return the USA might suddenly discover ITran's good qualities.
比如说伊朗，就会很欢迎这个结果。美国可能就会突然发现伊朗的一些良好品质。
Nalini Koutha
Now india is plannint to buy russian oil in rouble and will the USA start operation india freedom ?
现在印度已经在计划用卢布购买俄罗斯石油了。美国是不是也要发动印度自由行动了?
Chen Yongqi [陈勇气]
Hahaha... very good one. They will want to liberate India from ruble oppression and the dangers of communism.
哈哈哈.-.太有意思了。美国人会想要把印度从卢布的压迫和共产主义的威胁中解放出来。
L (Luis) Figueroa
One has to wonder if a lightweight M iddle Eastern ruler in a nasty part of the world, who would have trouble defending his country without U.S. weapons and military assistance if Iran decided to make a run for his oil wealth, would have that kind political and economic power to determine the fate of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency? I for one have doubts,but stranger things have occurred.
我有点想不通，一个没什么重量的中东统治者,在世界的一一个脏乱差的角落里，要是伊朗决定为了他的石油财富拼-把的话，
他没有了美国的武器和军事援助连保护自己的国家都做不到，这样的一一个统治者竟然会有能够决定美元作为储蓄货币的政治和经济实力?我自己倒是有所疑虑，但是更诡异的事情也不是没有发生过。
Paul Denlinger
He has been refusing to answer Biden's phone calls. Same for UAE.
他已经在拒绝接听拜登的电话了。阿联酋也是一样。
L (Luis) Figneroa
True, but he did recently accept U.S. military systems to protect against attacks. Perhaps he understands that his kingdom is toast without the U.S. military assistance, at least for now,
没错，但是他最近却接收了美国的武器系统来保护自己。或许他也知道自己的王国要是没有了美国的军事协助就完蛋了，至少
目前如此。
Neale Johns
This military assistance seems to be unable to stop missiles, so perhaps Russian defence systems would be a better option
这种军事协助看起来没有能力挡住导弹，所以或许俄罗斯的防御系统是更好的选择。
L (Luis) Figueroa
Well, in the past other M iddle Eastern countries bought Russian SAM systems. Egypt comes to mind in their wars against Israel. I wonder how those systems performed?
过去其他的中东国家也买过俄罗斯的陆基反导系统。埃及在与以色列的战争中还用过呢。那套系统表现的怎么样啊?
Andrew Chang
They just had an OIC meeting I believe there will be candid discussion on the role of Arab and Arab countries and the Islamic world in the post USD world?台T 以
他们刚刚开过一场伊斯兰国家组织会议。我相信对于阿拉伯人，阿拉伯国家和伊斯兰世界在后美元世界中的位置,他们将会进
行坦率的交流吧?
Gene Haba
I say just let the US go back to being the major exporter of energy to the world. We already supply 40% of the worlds' fod. We have the assets for 500 years plus. Then let all the global energy poker players have at it with the winner take Texas hold-em. Fuck them all. And don't let the Chicoms buy any US farmland or farmer technology firms or invest in them.
要我说，干脆就让美国重新成为世界主要的能源输出国就好了。我们已经在供应世界食物的40%了。我们有能用五百多年的资
产。那么就让世界上所有的能源国家都来打一 场德州扑克吧。把他们都干烂。而且别再让中共购买美国的农地或者农业科技企业了，也不要让他们投资。
Paul Denlinger
Energy won' t employ many Americans.
能源是不会给太多的美国人带来就业的。
Or doesn't that matter to you?
还是说你不在乎这个?
All the energy exports you talk about are being phased out by renewable energy and nuclear energy.
你说的那些能源出口，全都慢慢被可再生能源和核能替代了。
Or haven't you thought of that?
还是说你没想过这个?
Tony Uguccioni
The day the USD looses global dominance is the day the world looses the global peace provided by one guy having, by far,this biggest stick.
美国失去全球霸权的那一天，就是全世界失去由一 个持有最大的大棒的人所提供的世界和平的那一 天。
Like it or not the European and Asian countries consistently went to war with eachother throughout history untill one day, someone had a big stick a asked people to provoke him..
不论你喜不喜欢，欧洲和亚洲国家在历史上- -直都在发生战争，直到某一 天，有个拿着大棒子的人站了出来，让别人去招惹他....
the USD was used as the foundation for global economic development and in return the US has more guns than people pointed at anyone looking to mess up the system.
美元就是全球经济发展的基石，作为回报，美国有比人还多的枪，指着所有想要把这一 套体制弄烂的人。
Guess how much this Bill is actually worth?
你猜猜这张纸币值多少钱?
2.7 Censl!!!
2.7美分!
Thats the Cost of the Paper , the Inks and the plate aggregated over several billions of dollars printed.
这就是这张纸，上面的墨，以及用于印刷几十亿美元的印刷版摊下来的成本。
This is just a piece of Paper - which is a Debt issued by the US Government tellingyou- THIS IS A DEBT AND I OWE YOU 100 DOLLARS EQUIVALENT OF MONETARY CLOUT
这只是一 张纸一 本质是美国政府给你的一份欠条，告诉你这是一 种张欠条，我欠你与100美元等值的货币影响力。
Since the 1970s - its not even lixed to Gold anymore.
自从上世纪70年代以来， 它甚至不再与黄金挂钩了。
So if you have 100 Million Dollars - it technically just means The US Government owes you 100 Million Dollars equivalent
of Monetary Clout.
所以，如果你拥有一亿美元，那么这仅仅意味着美国政府欠你与-亿美元等价的货币影响力。
So why is the Dollar regarded so powerful?
那么为什么美元被广泛认为如此有影响力呢?
Beause US has forced almost all the Commodities to be valued and traded only in US Dollars.
因为美国强迫所有商品都要仅使用美元来进行定价和贸易。
For instance when oil is priced at $ 120 a Barrel - it gives value to this 3 Cent picce of paper as 5/6th of a Barrel of
Oil!!!
举个例子，当石油的定价是120美元-桶的时候，那么这张3美分的纸片子就有了5/6桶石油的价值!
For instance when Gold is priced at $ 1900 an ounce - it gives value to this 3 Cent piece of paper as 1/19th of an Ounceof Gold !!
举个例子，当金价是每盎司1900美元的时候，那么这张3美分的纸片子就有了1/19盎司黄金的价值!
Since every Commodity is valued and traded in US Dollars, these worthless pieces of paper gain value and become the basis for more and more transactions
由于所有的商品都是由美元来定价、来贸易的，这些没有价值的纸片就有了价值，因此就成为了越来越多的交易的基右。
Using this Clout of the Dollar- US Treasury keeps on printing more and more and more pieces of paper because they contro I almost everything from Gold to Coal to Silver to N ickel to Oil to Gas.
通过美元的这种影响力，美国财政部就一直在印刷越来越多的小纸片， 因为他们控制着从黄金到煤炭到白银到镍到石油到天然
气的一切资源。
Your entire exchange rate in many cases is purely based on the USD exchange rate today.
今天，你的汇率在很多情况下就是完全基于美元的汇率的。
This is called DOLLAR HEGEMONY
这就叫做美元霸权。
Today when Russia sells oil。It first prices the oil in Dollars per Barrel and then converts it into Ruble
在今天，当俄罗斯销售石油的时候，他们要先把石油用美元定价,然后再把它换成卢布。
For instance - Today Oil is $ 120 a Barrel so Russia prices the OIl at 120* 83 = 9960 Rubles a Barrel
举个例子，今天的油价是120美元-桶，所以俄罗斯把石油定价在120*83 = 9960卢布- 桶的价格。
Imagine what would happen if this Pricing Stopped???
想象一下，当这种定价过程不再继续会发生什么?
Lets say Russia decides to price its Oil in Rubles.
举个例子，俄罗斯决定直接用卢布定价。
Lets say Russia calcuates its Expenses , Cost of Building Pipelines, Labour, Maintenance costs all in Rubles and decides to price its oil in Rubles
假如说俄罗斯算了一下开销， 建造管线的成本，劳动力的成本，维护的成本，都用卢布计算,然后直接用卢布进行定价。
Russia would price Oil in Rubles without needing to price the same in Dollars.
俄罗斯就会直接用卢布来给石油定价，不需要用美元再定一次价。
Russia could declare 8000 Rubles for 1 Barrel of Oil and now the Ruble becomes 1/8oooth a Barrel of oil in value
那么俄罗斯就可以给1桶石油定价8000卢布,现在- -卢布就拥有1800桶石油的价值了。
Russia could price all exports in R ubles and all Imports in domestic currencies, determine Exchange rates on a Trade -Trade basis and sell oil per those rates.
俄罗斯可以把所有的进出口商品都用卢布来标价了，用贸易作为基础来决定汇率,然后按照这些汇率来销售石油。
Now imagine Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela doing the same thing
现在再想象一下沙特阿拉伯，伊朗和委内瑞拉都做同样的事情。
Pricing their oil in domestic currencies based on their own De mand and Supply and not in US Dollars.
基于自己的需求和供给，用他们自2的货币来给石油定价，而不是用美元。
The 100 US Dollar Bill would no longer be 5/6 of a Barrel of oil
那么100美元的钞票就不再会有5/6桶石油的价值了。
Sure US produces a Lot of Oil as does Canada but US has printed too much money and the money printed is easily 10-12 times the value of the Oil,
当然美国会生产大量的石油，加拿大也会，但是美国已经印刷了太多的货币,这些印刷出来的货币轻轻松松能抵上石油价值的10-12倍。
So slowly the US dollar becomes mere pieces of paper globally
所以慢慢的，美元在世界范围内就会仅仅变成几张纸。
Now imagine China prices all their Exports in their own Yuan and settles exchange rate based on Mutual Trade???
现在想象一-下， 中国如果把所有的出口都用自己的人民币来结算，并且用双边贸易来决定汇率呢?
If All Oil and Gold Producing and any Commodity Exporting N ations priced their Oil in their own domestic currencies based on Domestic Demand and Supply
如果所有的石油和黃金输出国，以及任何出口商品的国家，都用自己的货币，基于国内的需求来给自己的石油等产品定价
If all Trade was done using Mutual Currency Swaps with no Currency (AKA Only Digital Currency)
如果所有贸易都用双边货币的掉期合约,不需要现金来支付(也就是说仅使用电子货币)
Then Dollar Hegemony could be ended comfortably.
那么美元霸权就可以舒舒服服地得到终结。
of course you should note - Saddam Hussein and Gadaffi could have been destroyed precisely because they were going on the same route.
当然你应该要记住，萨达姆.侯赛因和卡扎菲被毁灭，就是因为他们要走这条路。
US knows if this happens - THE DEATH WARRANT OF US WILL BE SIGNED.
美国知道，如果这种事情发生，那么美国的死期就到了。
So US will do whatever it takes to prevent it from happening
所以，美国为了阻止这种事情的发生将会不顾- -切。
It may be why US is so Anti Putin. My Guess is US realized one day Putin would price Gas and Oil in Rubles only and not in US Dollars.
或许因此美国才会如此的反普京。我猜美国已经意识到了，总有一天普京将会只用卢布来给天然气和石油定价，而不再用美元
So i think if Putin guaranteed that he would price all his oil and Gas in USD for the next 20 years - I think US will gif
thim Zelenskys Head in less than 10 days.
所以我认为，如果普京做出保证,他在接下来的20年里都只用美元来给自己的石油和天然气定价，那么我觉得美国会在十天之内把泽连斯基的脑袋交到他的手里的。
James Chrisholm
When all the countries do not have a balanced trade, how will money flow be determined in a multi-currency world? Say China sells more manufactured goods to R ussia than R ussia sels energy, food and commodities to China. China will run out of Rubles. Even when we use gold, some countries will run out of it sooner or later. hence a recycling mechanism is necessary for it to work.
当所有的国家都没有平衡的贸易的时候,货币将如何在-个多通货并行的世界里流通?比如说，如果中国向俄罗斯销售的制造品比俄罗斯卖过来的能源、食物和商品更多，那么中国就会没有卢布可用。就算用黄金,有些国家迟早也会把黄金花完的。因此一套回收体制是必要的。
It will probably herald an age of more equitable global prosperity ys one where all money goes to New York or London.
这或许会标志着更加平等的世界富裕的先驱，而不是所有钱都流向纽约和伦敦。
Robert Quek
Just on your para 1, China & Russia trade with each other. They have a currency swab agreement.
回答一下你的第一 段，中国和俄罗斯是彼此贸易的。他们有货币互换协议。
At pre-agreed interval, say one month, the two central banks settled the net difference. If net difference is Yuan, and R ussia does not have Yuan, the difference is converted into a Yuan debt
按照预先约定的周期，比如说一一个月， 两大央行将会结算贸易净差。如果净差在人民币这边，但俄罗斯没有人民币了，那么净差就会被转化成人民币的债务。
Or China may be repaid in Ruble, which it holds as foreign reserves, say in Russian bonds or in direct investments.
或者中国可以接受卢布的支付，然后将卢布作为外汇储备来持有,比如作为俄罗斯的债券，或者直接投资。
Technology has made it easy to deal in multi-country trade and in multi-currencies.
科学技术让多国家、多币种的贸易变得更加简单了。
Prasad Krishna
Wish all the importers pay the exporters in their country's currencies. No need to keep dollars for anyone. The dollar e xchange alone is screwing economies 3oomn people holding 8bn- 300 million at hostage and subservient. Dollar has to be supp orted by Gold or some asset.
我希望各大进口国都能用出口国的货币来支付。这样每个国家都用不着再留着美元了。美元兑换本身就在压榨各大经济体，3亿人把剩下的80亿人当做人质和仆从。美元应当得到黄金或者某种资产的支撑才行。
Ashutosh B hadauria
For sustainable global trade, we need a common currency backed by strong economy, free from government manipulation. USD is only currency at the moment which fulfill most of criteria for easy businesses.
为了可持续的世界贸易的进行，我们需要一个有着强大经济的共同货币的支持， 并且没有政府的干预。美元只是目前暂时的货币解决方案，它能够满足让生意做得更轻松的绝大多数要求。
To whatever extentwe bash US or Dollar hegemony, Dollar is not going to anywhere atleast another half a century.
不论我们怎么骂美国，骂美元霸权,美元肯定还能至少再坚持半个世纪。
Size of Russian economy doesn't give Ruble that strength and confidence to take on USD one on one.
俄罗斯经济的体量是不会给他们一对一单挑美元的实力和自信的。
British pound and Japanese yen are most suitable contender for replacing USD in global trade but they have already accept ed the US dominance.
英镑和日元是在世界贸易中替换美元的最合适的竞争者,但是他们已经接受了美国的霸权。
Then come to Chinese yuan- next big thing Backed by a strong economy plus $3 tillion+ as foreign reserves. Also unlike their British and Japanese counterparts, Chinese have ambitions to counter US dominance.
然后就是中国的人民币。下一个重量级货币。由强大的经济和三万亿美元以上的外汇储备支持着。而且不像英国和日本，中国人有反对美国霸权的野心。
But it is still longway to go for Chinese yuan, Trust is biggest issue. Unlike USD, yuan is still not free traded currenc
y and posses a greater risk for global trade incase of government manipulation.
但是对于人民币来说还要很长的- -段路要走。信任就是最大的问题。和美元不同的是，人民币仍然不是可以自由兑换的货币,并且有更大的受政府操纵的国际贸易风险。
Even Chinese the mselves using USD reserves to give Yuan stability and credibility.
中国人自己都在用美元储备来为人民币赋予稳定度和可信度。
James McCuvy
I understand that in history, these things don't happen all at once. We have 11% real inflation now, which is almost unh ceard of for us, probably it will be made worse by sanctions ,so perhaps there will be a period of multiple reserve currenc
我理解在历史上，这些事情是不会一下子发生的。 我们现在有11%的通货膨胀，这对于我们来说简直是闻所未闻,并且很可能在制裁之下情况会变得更糟,所以或许会有一段多重储备货币的时期。
Ashutosh Bhadauria
I agree that using currency as weapon against other countries, raising questions over US way of handling the crises.
我同意使用货币作为武器攻击其他国家，确实会让人对美国处理危机的方式产生质疑。
The way US unilaterally sanctioned the Russia, it hurting whole world because you don't have capacity and capabilities to .fill the vaccume.
美国单方面制裁俄罗斯的方式正在伤害全世界，因为你没有补充留下来的真空的能力。
World is more cautious than ever on dependency on USD and tallk of diversification is strongest in history. But the fact isyou can't replace USD overnight which has almost over 80% dependency as common currency for global trade.
全世界对于对美元的依赖正在变得史无前例的谨慎，并且对于货币多样化的呼声是史上最强的。但事实在于，你不能一夜之间就把美元这个占世界贸易总额80%以上的货币给换掉。
Most prominent solution is Yuan can be best alternative but since Chinese economy is export driven, it's not easy for China to pump more local currency out of china It will strengthen the Yuan and hurt Chinese badly.
人民币作为最强大的解决方案可以成为最好的替代选项，但是由于中国经济是出口驱动的，对于中国来说，把更多的本国货币泵到外国并不是一 件容易的事情。这会让人民币走强，严重伤害中国人的生活。
Even in IMFs SDR, USD has highest waitage. So even if world is agree, it still need time to to change the world border let's say another two or three dacedes if not less
就算是在IMF的SDR里，美元的权重也是最高的。所以就算全世界都同意,也要花时间来改变世界秩序，可能至少也要花三十年吧。
Deepak Yadav
India should definitely go for Mr.Putin and help him economically rather than supporting Comedian Zelensky and Democratic Junkies. The relations between India and R ussia are based on trust how can we trust American's who were responsible for spreading chaos in Ukraine by selling their weapons to Ukraine and get profits from sales of their weapons against Russia.
印度绝对应当支持普京先生,并且从经济上支持他，而不是支持泽连斯基这个喜剧人和支持民主的垃圾。印度和俄罗斯之间的关系基于信任，我们怎么能相信美国这些通过向乌克兰贩卖军火让他们打俄罗斯而获利，在乌克兰散播混乱的人呢?
"Karma" taught Zelensky very well and now he wants help from India, their people should ask Zelensky why did he dragged the people in the war which was impossible to win?
“因果报应”已经给泽连斯基上了很好的一刻,现在他们希望从印度得到帮助， 他们的人民应当问问泽连斯基，为什么他把人民拖入了一场不可能打赢的战争?
That's why Dollars are cheaper and useless than Trust
所以美元比信任更廉价，更没用。
Many European nations don't know about Indian foreign policy, that's quite a shame indeed!
很多欧洲国家都不知道印度的外交政策,对他们来说真的很可耻!
Daniel Augustine(UR)
The country with the largest military force will always have the most powerful currency
拥有最大武装部队的国家，永远将拥有最强大的货币。
Subrahmanyam M arripoodi
But the problem is - the US is the biggest market for everything that the humanity produces. She is the biggest consumer on the Earth. From the Arctic to Antarctica, From fruits to pharma
但是问题在于，美国是人类生产的一切事物的最大市场。她是地球上最大的消费者。从北极到南极，从水果到药物。
The US pays others for the supplies in dollars but not in the currency of the supplying country. (And most supplying coun tries are under the protective umbrella of the USA) So all countries have dollars in abundance but not any other currency with them. So they cannot pay for their imports in any currency other than the US dollar.
美国用美元支付其他国家提供的商品，而不用这些国家自己的货币(并且绝大多数个偶家都处于美国的保护伞之下)。所以所有国家都有大量的美元，但没有别的货币。所以他们除了美元之外，不能用别的货币来支付进口。
CONCLUSION :It is impossible to end the dollar hegemony in our lifetime, at least as long as it is deemed to be the most valuable legal tender in South Asia, a region where 1.8 billion people live.
结论:我们这辈子想要终结美元霸权是不可能的，只要它仍然是南亚这个18亿人口居住的地区最有价值的法律通货。
Exceptional scenario : Your fond wish will come true only if something serious and drastic happens to the USA
例外的情况:只有非常严重的事情发生到了美国头上,你们的- -厢情愿才会成真。
Vivekanand Singh
i don't think china would be benefit from Russia elling oil against ruble. Cos biggest lender of US govt is china. They
have the maximum holding of US govt bonds. So if USD plunges, biggest looser after US would be china
我不觉得中国会从俄罗斯用卢布结算石油这件事上获利。因为中国是美国最大的债权国。他们持有最大规模的美国政府债券。所以如果美元跌了，那么除了美国以外，最大的输家就是中国。
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